Chron: Is Yao Right for Rockets?

<i>Yao may or may not be the right choice for the Rockets
By MICHAEL MURPHY
Copyright 2002 Houston Chronicle

Now that the Rockets have apparently decided that Yao Ming is their man, the No. 1 pick in the June 26 NBA Draft, you can already imagine that day's headlines.

"A New Ming Dynasty."

"Yao-za, Yao-za, Yao-za."

"Yao Gonna Make Me Lose My Mind."

But there is another headline that would perhaps be more appropriate:

"Yao Ming: Is He the Right Choice?"

For the Rockets, that is the million-dollar question. Or the $12 million question, which is about what Yao would receive during the next four years as the top draft pick.

Is Yao the right choice for the Rockets, who beat the odds and won the first pick in the 2002 NBA Draft?

They have just under two weeks to sweat out that decision, and coach Rudy Tomjanovich and general manager Carroll Dawson have obviously put in the time, effort -- and frequent flyer miles -- to investigate the situation.

It is far more difficult decision than the one the organization made in 1984, when it spent the No. 1 pick on a kid from Nigeria, then named Akeem Olajuwon. But Olajuwon was well-known to the Rockets.

They didn't burn their travel budget because Olajuwon played three years at the University of Houston. His impact was immediate, averaging 20.6 points and 11.9 rebounds while helping to turn a last-place, 29-win team into a 48-win playoff squad.

Yao? He's pretty much a mystery. Or a dream, depending on who's doing the talking.

"A guy like him, I believe, is going to be a good NBA player, but it's going to take him some time to get where he wants to get," said Jerry West, general manager of the Memphis Grizzlies. "The biggest adjustment for Yao will be adapting to the level of competition from other big guys.

"I don't think they have that many big low-post players in China. Plus, they play the game differently in China."

And Yao ruled the game in China. The stories leaking out of his home country painted a picture of dominance on a scale that bordered on the ridiculous, like his averaging 41.3 points (on 70 percent shooting) and 21 rebounds while leading the Shanghai Sharks to the China Basketball Association title.

But that was China. Can he do it in the NBA?

"It's going to be an adjustment for any player outside of the United States coming in to play," said New York coach Don Chaney. "The degree of the adjustment depends on the player. I've seen him play (on tape). He has skill. But once again, it's hard to say (how good Yao will be)."

The comment is typical -- no matter whom you ask, most everyone seems to acknowledge Yao's seductive mix of size and skill.

In every conversation, though, there always seems to be a pause here or a measured response there -- just enough to let you know that it's all so uncertain, that there is the chance for spectacular success with Yao. Or equally spectacular failure.

Given that, is Yao the right choice, from a purely basketball perspective, for the Rockets?

Make no mistake, Yao can do just about everything -- shoot inside and from the perimeter, pass, dribble, rebound and block shots. But there is one thing he can't do -- Yao can't help the Rockets now.

Unfortunately, that's what the Rockets most need from him.

So here we find the Rockets, who are either perched at the summit, looking out over a vast, new horizon that represents their future, or standing on a precipice, staring straight down into the basketball abyss.

Granted, that precipice is only 7-6 1/4 inches high -- Yao's height in his size-19 Nikes -- but a fall from even that height could be dizzying for a franchise that needs immediate help.

Can the Rockets, who are preparing to move into a new arena, afford to wait two years, perhaps even longer, for Yao to make his mark in the NBA? Is owner Leslie Alexander willing to wait that long? Is Steve Francis willing to wait? Would they be better off taking a player like UConn forward Caron Butler, who is being described as "another Paul Pierce" and is generally regarded as the most NBA-ready player in the draft?

These are sticky questions with no easy answers, especially considering Yao's background, which is atypical of most NBA players.

Just two years ago, Yao was washing his own uniforms after practice. And as a member of the Sharks, he was rising every day at 7:30 a.m., eating rice soup for breakfast and doing two workouts a day before hitting the sack at his 10 p.m. curfew.

But while these are great stories, it's not as if Yao has no experience in American-style basketball.

He made an impression during the 2000 Sydney Olympics with emphatic rejections of Vince Carter and Gary Payton before fouling out in a Team USA rout. And he was a counselor at one of Michael Jordan's Nike camps, playing in the regular pickup games against His Airness and other counselors.

So he's not some colossal rube who's going to be a stranger in a strange land. There will be an adjustment period for sure, but many around the NBA seem to think that given the big picture, the big man is simply too good to pass up.

"Skills and size, that's a lethal combination," said Donnie Walsh, president of the Indiana Pacers. "Skills and size make (Yao) a special player. It may take him one or two years to acclimate himself and to get to where he understands his position in the NBA and the challenge of the players he's playing every day.

"I think that once he goes through that period, which almost every rookie -- even the great ones -- must go through, I think he'll be a great player."

There is an old NBA saw that goes, "if you're going to miss, miss big," which, of course, is a variation of another old basketball saying -- "You can't teach height."

That type of thinking has caused teams to select big men when more desirable players could have been taken. Consider Portland in 1984, which took 7-1 Sam Bowie, an injury-prone center from Kentucky, with the No. 2 pick in the draft, leaving a guy named Michael Jordan for the Chicago Bulls.

But Yao is unlike anything most NBA types have seen.

"Very intriguing player," said Denver general manager Kiki Vandeweghe, who has seen Yao play several times. "You can't teach 7-foot-5 (Yao's height in his bare feet). You've got to take a look at it. Legitimate centers are hard to come by in this league."

That seems to be the cautious consensus around the NBA. In a game that embraces height above all else, Yao is the biggest all-around player since Ralph Sampson came along two decades ago.

"I don't think it's a roll of the dice," said West of drafting Yao. "There will be a place for him in the NBA."

Of that, there is no doubt.

But will that place be on the bench, in the All-Star lineup or somewhere in between? Height alone seems to guarantee that Yao will be of some value. After all, other international skyscrapers managed to carve out careers in the NBA with little more going for them than excessive height.

Manute Bol, the 7-7 Sudanese stick man, arrived in the league with precious little basketball experience but became a shot-blocking force for a few years. And Romanian curiousity Gheorghe Muresan, who was relatively clumsy and slow, but still was 7-7, logged six decent years before injuries forced him to retire.

Neither possessed Yao's combination of athleticism, agility, basketball skills and mind for the game, a package that has led some observers to call him "a young Bill Walton."

"I was very impressed with how mobile he was for a guy his size," said Los Angeles Clipper swingman Quentin Richardson, who watched Yao's workout in Chicago last month. "Most of the guys who come into the NBA from overseas are robotic types who stand still and shoot jumpers from the wings.

"But Yao dunks, shoots layups, scores off the dribble and shoots a hook. He can also run the court and shoot pull-up or step-back jumpers. It's nice to see a big man do those things."

A more accurate comparison would be another big man who did similar things -- Rik Smits. The 7-4 Dutchman whose feathery shooting touch allowed him to log 12 years in the NBA, all with the Indiana Pacers, averaging 14.8 points for his career.

And in Yao's game there is also a touch of Arvydas Sabonis, the smooth-passing and silky shooting 7-3 Lithuanian who finally made it to the NBA with Portland in 1995 after years of political wrangling. By then, though, Sabonis was 31 and only a shell of his former self after several leg injuries robbed him of his storied leaping ability and lateral quickness.

"What a guy that size and that kind of talent does, and I would say that Yao Ming probably has more talent than Rik, who was very talented, but he distorts the whole game," Walsh said. "In other words, the minute he walks out there the opposing team knows they can't play him. It's going to take some time, but anybody who can't play him, the game is over."

At 21, Yao is still years away from his prime as a basketball player. But at that tender age, will Yao be able to stand up under the intense pressure he is going to receive -- both from the American media and the Chinese, who view him as nothing short of a national treasure?

"A lot of pressure is being put on him," said Denver assistant coach Jarin Akana, who is also an assistant coach with the Chinese national team. "I was there last month, and I could see that he's different because of all the pressure that is being put on him. All the attention does affect him. I think he has the makeup, though, to be able to handle it. He'll make it in this league." </i>