Mathematical Chances of the Rockets picks being something

Not up by any stretch, but if this is the roster in October, I will not be happy.......

I still trust them, though I think they were asleep at the wheel in the Carter and Jefferson deals....

Those are exactly the types of players this team needs, IMO.

DD

 

Jefferson only fits the need IF we don't bring Artest back because that is the position I believe Artest and RJ fit best at.

The deal for Carter happened because of Courtney Lee (some future talent @ 2). I don't think we had anything we could've given for Carter, AB is a PG (their PG for the future is already set with Harris) and IMO Lee is a better talent than Landry.

I'm not sure we fell asleep or just weren't giving as good of a deal.

That being said, I want to see Tmac go this summer also and hopefully we can bring in some All-Star talent (even if that costs us AB or Landry). The Rockets as a team had a MUCH better attitude and played so much harder when he went down and I loved it. Tmac's attitude is so fail, that's singly why he has never gotten out of the first round.

 

I wouldn't say they were asleep but I just get the feeling that the right deal hasn't came. I promise you those teams are wanting to send us very bad contracts. T-Mac has a big contract that would of required more than one player from either team. If Morey is going to get something done, he's going to get a big name. I feel that he doesn't want to take any bad contracts but I think at some point he might have to.

Both of those guys would of been prime for what we need. The Rockets are going to have to do something either during the summer or before the trading deadline to keep up with San Antonio.

My fear is that maybe the trading deadline will be too late. They have to start off strong. Far to many years we've come out struggling from the gate and slowly picked up steam. We can't do that again this year.

 

Artest is rapidly declining, and is an inefficient player, we don't need two defensive Wings, Battier is fine, let's get a complimentary player who can score.

Let Artest walk, or do a S&T for him...we don't need sub 40% shooters we need efficiency.

I disagree, I think Tmac + Landry would have netted us Carter.....

DD

 

I'm assuming the numbers are based on what the players did during their careers and not where they stood at the end of their rookie season.

Any way you look at the numbers it's easy to see the odds of any of these guys actually helping this team THIS year are slim and none. I'm going to assume (and hope) that these players were selected to be pieces in bigger deals that will bring in proven NBA players.

 

All for nothing!!!!!!!!l

 

It's been literally 3 weeks since the end of the Finals.

What part of Daryl Morey's documented history would give you reason to think that he would ever be "asleep at the wheel"? Have you considered the fact that he might not have thought those were the best moves for this team or that we might not have had enough to offer?

A sizable portion of the salaries sent to NJ in the Jefferson trade were non-guaranteed, something we wouldn't have been able to offer had we wanted to. Orlando didn't get Vince Carter for free - they gave up Courtney Lee who likely has more upside than Carl Landry. While Aaron Brooks has more value than Lee, they already have Devin Harris. I won't mention the fact that you started a thread insisting that we NOT give up Aaron Brooks in any trades.

There's few greater annual constants on this board than the post-draft panic.

 

Its only been a year for 3 of those guys. most players outside of the lottery picks and mid first rounders take a couple of yeas to get a chance like gerald wallace, turky glue, and monte ellis are a few.

Lior would probably be on this team if we didnt have our frountcourt stacked like we do. Lior, Marty, and Brad are ranked in the top 25 for players playing overseas having their rights held by NBA teams.
http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/NBA-Rights-Held/

Let them atleast get to the NBA before you asses them.

 

The Rockets didnt give up anyone to get those picks. They have money to spend, but let's remember the big splash will be done when we get someone for tmac's contract.

Llull will stay in Europe and Taylor and Budinger will have a chance to sniff the bench, but most likely will spend this season in the Developmental League.

I'll take it!

 

Completely agreed.

The partially guaranteed contracts of Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto offered MUCH greater financial flexibility than any expiring contract(s) the Rockets could have offered. Plus, the Bucks were able to parlay Oberto's partially guaranteed contract into a deal with another salary dumping team (Detroit) for a quality young backup C (Amir Johnson). For the Rockets to have gotten Richard Jefferson, they would have had to throw in Aaron Brooks and/or Carl Landry at the very least, the trade would have had the Rockets taking back additional dead weight salary (since there is no combination of Rockets contracts that make any sense unless McGrady's deal is used). Add to this the fact that Jefferson will likely make more than Ron Artest and Carl Landry combined next season. Glad Morey sat this one out. It just sucks that it was the Spurs that got Jefferson.

As for the Vince Carter trade, the same principle holds true. The only way the Rockets get Carter was to either (a) offer up Battier, Landry and the smaller expiring contracts (no way I do that deal!) or (b) trade McGrady's expring deal plus a young asset (Brooks/Landry), in which case the Rockets once again have to take back significant dead weight along with Carter's large contract (if they're lucky, just Bobby Simmon's $10.6M expiring deal). The Magic trade offer was much better than anything that would make sense for the Rockets. Courtney Lee is a good young player. The thing that has been largely overlooked about the Magic's offer is that Rafer Alston and Tony Battie are expiring contracts THAT CAN STILL PLAY FAIRLY WELL. If McGrady were capable of contributing to the Nets in a meaningful way on the court, then the Rockets would be better off just keeping T-Mac.

Seriously, DD, what LEGITIMATE trade offer could the Rockets have made for either Jefferson or Carter that would have (1) made sense for the Rockets and (2) been better than the packages offered by San Antonio/Detroit and Orlando, respectively?

Face it. T-Mac's monstrosity of an expiring contract makes "salary dump" trades significantly harder to make than other smaller expiring contracts do. Plus, partially guaranteed contracts are much more attractive to financially strapped teams. I still fear what significant move Cuban is going to be able to make using Jerry Stackhouse's partially guaranteed deal (the single best partially guaranteed contract out there this summer, to my knowledge).

 

There is a 39% chance that at least one of the three becoming a contributing role player, a solid player, or a star.

That's a pretty good odd considering the fact that we did not have a single pick. And I am sure Morey has loaded dices.

 

exactly why i hope DM moves tmac for a pair of endings. of course he wont do so without having another trade ready for at least one of those endings. i hope he's searching for players who make around $10M like rip or hinrich. split tmac's contract in two and get them both. much greater return, and much easier to find a deal, than having one cumbersome $20M ending.

exactly right again. so far pavlovic and oberto's contracts played a big role this off season. ben wallace, kurt thomas, and bruce bowen could all be bought out as well.

again a case for splitting tmac's contract in two and picking up a non guaranteed contract seems like the best idea. i've been hoping for a trade with the knicks. bring back mobely who's non guaranteed, and one other ending to match tmac's salary.

 

If the Rockets would only be giving up T-Mac's expiring contract, why wouldn't the third team simply use its own smaller expiring contracts to obtain the assets the Rockets are after? Brooks or Landry would likely need to be involved in any such scenario.

Bowen's contract is partially guaranteed. Also, Mobley's contract is fully guaranteed (meaning that the team that trades for Mobley would suffer any subsequent luxury tax ramifications), but insurance is actually PAYING 80% of Mobley's salary to him.

 

Why would a team give expiring contracts for TMac? Any team making that trade will be looking to dump contracts for TMac's expiring contract. That team won't be making that decision based on basketball.

 

Agreed (for the most part). That is why I think the Knicks might be one of the only teams willing to do a deal like that, but it would probably mean the Rockets have to take on Jared Jeffries.

 

I think the biggest problem with that mathematical model is how LONG it will take before these picks become solid.

Technically you can look at someone like Chauncey Billups or Ben Wallance and say they're all-stars. But neither showed enough with their original team. Heck, even Wafer kicked around the league a few times before he finally started to do something.

Considering how short a time frame 2nd rounders get to show their stuff, I'd say the chances that they blossom in Houston to be even less than what Sam proposed.

Overall though, if Les is willing to shell out the money, it's basically free talent. But don't really expect much to come out of it though.

 

most teams aren't in the hunt to add large or long term contracts. the knicks, and nets for example have no interest in adding hinrich's contract, but might like to take a flyer on tmac for one year if only to sell jerseys. after all, what would the knicks be giving up for tmac? mobley wont play (thanks for the correction on his contract), and they would gladly add hughes for example to get that deal done.

as for adding either landry or brooks to land a piece, i say it depends on how desperate that team is to get this contract off their books. teams strapped for cash like the suns, hornets, and pacers might be happy just cutting payroll. in most cases though, i'd bet you are correct in your assumption.

 

I just think that the only destination for T-Mac's contract in a trade (assuming that he is traded before his timetable for return is set) is the Knicks; and the Knicks will not trade its smaller expiring contracts for just another larger expiring contract unless the Rockets take back either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries. Hence, some of the rumors that Ric Bucher was talking about (Curry and Q-Rich offered and rejected by Rockets; Curry and Harrington possibly on the table?).

Personally, I'd rather just hope that T-Mac can come back at 80% by March and go to war with this current team than to take on Eddy Curry's fat contract/ass.

 

lee is cheaper and has a longer contract than landry.

 

i think we're in agreement for the most part except i think they'd ask for a little less and you think they'd ask for a little more. personally i wouldn't mind jeffries or curry for a year because this time next year we can shop their large expirings. of course i'd only make the deal if we can parlay hughes or harrington into hinrich, rip, etc...

what are your thoughts on this idea?:

tmac and brooks for hughes, curry or jeffries, chandler

then move hughes, dorsey, budinger for hinrich.