Mathematical Chances of the Rockets picks being something

So you're saying there's a chance....

 

Cool, thanks for the crappy math.

 

So, this means there's a 57.5% chance that none of the three will ever be even a contributing role player. Sort of a reality check ... but considering the money Les Alexander spent I would hope we can beat those odds.

 

It only takes into account the average but not who's doing the selecting.

 

DM has the ability to beat those odds...

 

Signed Carl Landry

 

Maarty Luenan, Brad Newley, Lior Eliyahu, Dorsey...

So, ..well, I think the math is right.

DD

 

I'm in my phone so its difficult to check, but can someone post a list of notible players taken at the 3 spots we took?

 

Are your ANY's and ALL's accurate?

 

DNP is worse than a bust, it should be considered as a complete bust too.

revised bust rate = 1-0.6*0.7*0.3=87.4%.

 

Your data is too precise to have any meanings, you cant just do a chance calculation base on a single draft position, that basically eliminates all the random errors.
If you want your analysis to have any meaning, you need to do a range of draft positions instead of a single one. For example, draft position 31-35. That way the random error will increase, but the result will be more accurate.

 

The math was good assuming all are independent. Well done, Sammy.

 

1. Three of these guys were drafted with the intention of being stashed in Europe for a while-- and they are in Europe, according to plan, and apparently doing pretty well. No Malick Badiane are they.

Leunan did quite well in his first professional season as far as I remember. Eliyahu moved on to a better league with Scola's old team. Don't remember about Newley.

Dorsey, who knows, but lets give the guy more than one year to prove himself, no?


2. For the "results from limited resources" department, you have to add to Morey's ledger Aaron Brooks (26th picks probably don't have that much greater odds than 32nd picks), Von Wafer (salvage project), Scola (people know about him, but apparently nobody knew him well enough to have offerred more than cap relief + 2nd rounder for him).

3. Les spent $6 million on the 3 picks. One might wonder, given the odds, whether it's worth the likely wasting the money.

It's actually a pretty good deal considering (A) it's $6 million that don't count against the salary cap or luxury tax limit, (B) there really isn't a higher and better use for the $6 million considering that's about 1 year salary for an MLE free agent.

 

Im sensing that the "Dakota honeymoon grace period for new Rockets personnel" is about up for Daryl Morey.

3 years and change? Pretty good by comparative standards.

 

Sergio was drafted to send over to toronto combined with tmacs contract, in exchange for bosh and 3 tons of copper or whatever canada exports.
=)

 

And (C), it's not our money.