Lewis: Rockets Go Way Beyond 'Moneyball' A's In Terms Of IP

[rquoter]Q: Are there more Shane Battiers out there in the NBA? And how does studying the exception to the rules of NBA selfishness help us learn things about the vast majority of players who are not exceptions?

A: Yes, there are more of them out there. The Rockets have generated a list of five, six, seven players who they thought were dramatically undervalued. And there's the converse — players who do well in conventional stats who are overvalued. I think the thrust of the story is that what's going to happen in basketball has happened in baseball. A wand will be waved and a new system will be put in place on how to value players. The Rockets will tell you that everyone in the NBA is at least slightly misvalued. [/rquoter]

Anyone want to take a guess as to who those players might be?

 

I'm gonna guess it's the other 5-7 players who excel on one side of the ball and are a complete zero on the other end, but get a pass because they "Hustle"

 

Rafer Alston
Luther Head
Steve Novak
Ryan Bowen
Juwan Howard
Pops Mensah-Bonsu
Yi Jianlian

 

Danny Granger
David Lee
Jeff Green

and of the three green is probably iffy but i know Granger is vastly underrated

 

So underrated that he won Most Improved Player.

 

Granger is NOT undervalued. He's just under the radar because he plays for a bad team.

When they say "undervalued", I'm pretty sure they're talking about guys who don't put up big numbers and are ignored as a result. Granger already puts up big numbers, so any positive impact he has isn't much of a surprise.

 

Kinda funny, now anytime Morey calls to ask if a player is available, teams might start to do a double take. Maybe he's a great negotiator and brings up some random player to initiate talks, and when those break down, he'll move onto his real target. Trade negotiations would be absolutely riveting reading - maybe JCF can get an insider pass and pass along what he can share?!? Sigh, end dream...

 

Dunno, but TSlack should be near the top of the overvalued list at $20+ million per year.

 

Yeah, I'm excited that Morey is getting credit where its deserved, and players like Battier are getting noticed, but it DOES make it a lot harder for Morey to negotiate, if they fear they are the next guy to get "had."

I've actually wondered about Kevin Pritchard's use of Morey's expertise, since anytime Morey shows interest, Pritchard always goes after whomever that player is, has way more resources and latitude, and seems to keep beating us to the punch on key up and coming players. (ie ... Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, etc.) Perhaps he's got the same insight or data, or is one of the first to recognize Morey's expertise, and makes shrewd moves.

 

out of the 5-7 players, i would bet that the rockets have two already (battier, hayes).

lowry was probably on the list of undervalued players, but not really up there with battier and hayes. his defensive contributions as well as drawing fouls really help turn the tide when he gets in the game.


my guess is that the list of undervalued players will include players who either excel at only one thing, have an intangible positive impact on one or both ends of the floor, or can give smaller contributions across the board. all while being underpaid. battier is a perfect storm if that's the case.

other players that might fit the bill: wilson chandler, grant hill, francisco garcia, dominic mcguire.

 

We present to you the NBA's 2008-09 Most Overvalued Team...

PG: Baron Walter Louis Davis ($11 mil)
SG: Allen Ezail Iverson ($22 mil: 2nd highest overall)
SF: Tracy Lamar McGrady ($21 mil: 6th highest)
PF: Zachary Randolph ($15 mil: 23rd highest)
C: No center because the team can't afford one.

 

How many titles did the A's win under beane? In fact, they kept losing in the first rd, just like guess who? I wonder what strategy otis smith used when he signed pietrus and drafted lee and gortat. I wonder what kind of formula pritchard used when he bought up the rights to fernandez,traded thomas for aldridge and jumped ahead and took roy. Paralysis by analysis happen when people try to outsmart themselves.

 

yeah, I'm sick of that dude Pritchard as well. Even though we got AB in that Rudy Fernandez draft, I still think a sweet stroke like that to pair with Yao would be lethal! Still can't believe he and Jerry West conspired to get Roy to Portland while West got Rudy Gay. I guess we'll have to go out and win it all with Battier

 

I hate to see what kind of numbers his calculations pull up when he runs Tracy's numbers. Probably a negative instead of a positive.

Lowery apparently was one of those undervalued players, glad he's here now.

 

Lowery or Uppery?

I kid but I see his name misspelled quite a bit.

 

Since you asked ...

http://www.blazersedge.com/story/2008/1/24/33735/7730

[rquoter]
Blazersedge: What kind of data do you analyze? How much of scouting is numbers, how much is observation, how much is "feel"?


Kevin Pritchard brought in a saying, I assume it was from San Antonio: "Eyes, ears, and numbers".

"Eyes" means what you see. Does a player have a feel for the game? What's his basketball IQ? Does he play winning basketball? What are his skills: shooter, ball handler, athleticism, size, length? You gather visual impressions of what you like and don't.

"Ears" has to do with culture, which is obviously a huge factor for our team. How does a guy fit? We do research on players so we know coming in whether they'll mesh easily or not. This entails talking in person with coaches, calling assistants and strength coaches, building the book on your man. Are they hard workers? Are they dependable? What are they like in the locker room? Do their teammates like them? Do they show leadership skills? And that's just the on-court stuff. We also want to know if they will be good in the community...what they do in their off time and that kind of thing.

Numbers are simply stats. For college we look at things like scoring, field goals, rebounds per minute, assist-to-turnover ratio. We also do quality of opponent analysis. We want to know if a guy has been playing against the best competition and how he fared. We try to look at back-to-back game and one-day-rest patterns to gauge how a guy will hold up physically. For the NBA we have a simulation guy who uses his own stats analysis. You weigh stats and strengths, digging deeper than the normal boxscore. For instance, which is better: a 90% free throw shooter who goes to the line 3 times a game or a 70% guy who goes 8 times? The boxscore highlights the 90% guy, but is he really more valuable? Our simulation guy doesn't watch many games. He just goes by the numbers. It gives us a different perspective. It lets you watch players differently.
[/rquoter]

 

Add Ronnie Brewer to that list. Really efficient two-way player.

 

These are a few players i think are undervalued:

Ramon Sessions
Thaddeus Young
Kelenna Azubuike
Andres Nocioni
Zaza Pachulia
Troy Murphy
Marquis Daniels
David Lee
Javale McGee
Pops Mensah-Bonsu

 

Have you seen Troy Murphy's contract? Marquis Daniels.....really?