I think after seeing his team FINALLY get out of the first round with absolutely smothering defense, Les will pay Artest his fair market value (or slightly under it if economic conditions allow it . . . which, I guess, would still be his fair market value) in order to keep this core together, even if it means (temporarily) exceeding the luxury tax threshold. I think Wafer is likely a goner, since he will bolt for more cash elsewhere (and rightly so for him). I agree with Carl Herrara that the Rockets very well may end up paying another team to take Brian Cook off their hands (a term which may more appropriately be referred to as "Glen Rice-ing" him) in order to get under the luxury tax threshold (or at least minimize the tax). I think that, while Morey will try to work his magic for a T-Mac trade this summer, he will likely find no takers willing to part with a package that Morey and Les are willing to accept. More likely, they will renew their attempts to trade T-Mac before the February trade deadline, when other teams will be more desperate to avoid the luxury tax. Remember, Les Alexander has gone on the record that he would be willing to go into luxury tax territory, but only for "a significant player". (By the way, Ron Artest would probably qualify as a "significant player".) (As an aside, does anyone here honestly think that, in the summer of 2007, the Memphis Grizzlies honestly would have even entertained the notion of dealing Pau Gasol for chump change? The franchise was coming off an injury-plagued disappointing season but had won 50 games in each of the two seasons prior to 2006-07. It wasn't until the Grizzlies played out a good portion of the season, without much success and without much revenue coming in, that the team finally realized that it HAD to dump salary in order to avoid losing money (and in order to attract purchasers for the franchise). Teams always hold out hope that one really good season can bring back the fans and increase revenues. It isn't until that delusion is shattered that teams truly come to the realization that drastic measures should be taken.)
Can't we negotiate a buyout with Cook since his contract is a player option? Like paying him 2/3 of what he's owed so that he doesn't use his player option.
That's a violation of league rules. While I am not so naive to think that such negotiations don't ever go on "under the table", if the Rockets were ever caught doing this, there could be "Minnesota Timberwolves - Joe Smith" type consequences (loss of 5 first round picks, later reduced to 3 first round picks). Bottom line: Not worth even THINKING about.
We can negotiate a buyout, and only the buyout amount would hit the cap. There's just no incentive for Brian Cook to do that.
Of course, but what dexkk was talking about doing wasn't technically a "buyout". It was a "buy-off". He was suggesting that the Rockets pay Brian Cook NOT to exercise his player option (which is illegal), as opposed to allowing Cook to exercise his option and then agreeing to a buyout of his contract at less than the $3.5M salary he is expected to make (which is legal). Agreed, though, either way, why would Cook agree to that? Sigh . . . paying off another team to take him, it is.
brian cook's contract is depressing me more now =( I really didn't want him coming here in the first place.
The Rockets do not have to make any trades in the off-season to sign Ron Artest. In fact, they don't have to make any trades in the off-season if they sign him for $20mil/yr. The luxury tax is not enforced until after the trading deadline of that playing year, I believe, so it's okay to be over it as long as you dump salary prior to that deadline. McGrady's contract will probably be very dumpable at that point, and if not, that's when Morey will have to pull the trigger and dump salary somehow. However, if at that point, McGrady is healthy, producing well, the team in clicking and looking like a contender, I would not be surprised in Morey bit the bullet and went right over that luxury tax. He's a great owner, and if he can get a title, he'll probably go for it.
Signing Artest for $20mil/yr would put the Rockets around $14M over tax. At best the Rockets can only salary dump around $4M from McGrady's contract (25% less). Teams are usually reluctant to take on more salary (ie, current salary) in trades. Even that amount at the trade deadline might be a bridge too far. I'd say they'll be stuck with the tax if they're over by $5M. Other teams hold expiring contracts and just as good or better trade bait. They don't have to deal with the Rockets. The size of McGrady's contract limits where he can be dealt as well. I'd say the Rocket's best bet is to move McGrady in the summer for smaller contracts and then try to move those smaller pieces during the season.
It was purely a ridiculous hypothetical situation that would never occur; I just tried to illustrate a point that the luxury tax is not enforced until after the late-season trading deadline. Even if we are over the luxury tax to begin the season, there is plenty of time to finagle a deal to hop back under it whether it's dealing McGrady (though, like you said, you can only lose 25% of it) or someone else. Bottom line, I think Morey will be sensible and manage something that he can squeak out of before the deadline later in the season. Saying he has to be under the luxury tax RIGHT NOW is a fallacy. It's wise to be, but not necessary. Believe in Morey.
One aspect that has not been considered in this thread is that, if McGrady's injury is ruled by an independent, league-appointed physician to be "career ending", then the following will occur: (1) the Rockets will obtain salary cap relief via a medical player exception in the amount of the LESSER of (a) 50% of T-Mac's salary or (b) the average player salary (so, the average player salary); and (2) T-Mac's salary will only count 50% against the luxury tax; however, if another team trades for T-Mac, they cannot get this luxury tax relief. Neither of these things can occur, however, until one full year after the injury occurred. For purposes of T-Mac's situation, I think that would be when he went down in February 2009. Depending on the timing of it all (I'm not sure who makes the final determination), this date could be AFTER the trade deadline. Therefore, if Les and Morey cannot find a "knock your socks off" deal for McGrady, the Rockets may just take the salary cap and luxury tax relief, which would probably allow the Rockets to re-sign Artest (and maybe even Wafer) and still be under the luxury tax. However, there is really no way that the Rockets could know for certain that the independent physician will rule McGrady's injury "career ending", so it would definitely be a gamble. While definitely not a "sexy" option, it would essentially give the Rockets two (2) MLEs in the summer of 2010.
No one's argued that the Rockets need to be under LT before the season starts. People are just speculating deals for McGrady are more likely to happen in the summer if they are to occur. Moving McGrady no matter when will change the Rockets significantly. That's even more reason to aim for a summer deal leaving time for tweaks/trades if things don't go to plan.
You're right that this is the Darius Miles situation all over again. However, the (very big) difference is that, after 2010, McGrady's contract is expired, so there is no way that his salary could be put back on the Rockets' books if he came back in 2010-11. The Blazers got this relief of Miles's contract (and subsequently waived him) while there were still several years remaining on his deal. Key difference. (I know you're joking, but I thought I'd educate others to the difference between the Darius Miles situation and a potential T-Mac situation.)
So lets see, we have about 28 1/2 mil in expiring contracts to play with before the trading deadline. We also have several organizations that are going to be hit hard by the tough economic times. I think there is a very good possibility that we pick up a couple gems in either a straight up trade of our expirings or some kind of three way deal. I'm sure Morey has pin pointed several players that will help bring what this team needs to the roster. I mean, 28.5 mil in expirings? You better believe we're going to scoop up some serious talent or at least I have faith we will. I think the team we start the season with is going to have a serious make over come Januaryish.
I don't see how trading T-Mac's contract helps us that much. Normally I might agree, because it's possible for us to take on 3~4 mil less in any trade due to the 15% rule. But in today's economy, is the other team willing to do that? Given the whole point of trading for T-Mac is to SHED salary? I think a Brian Cook-type deal is much more plausible. Basically a "I'll give you $3 mil cash, pick(s), and Cook's contract for allowing us not to pay the luxury tax" They do? That's odd. How does that work? "My father impacted me a great deal"? That just sounds weird.
forget it. Miser won't do any trade. Every year, he always says that he is willing to pay for good players and doesn't care the luxury tax. FED UP!!! so when you guys meet him, please tell him our Chinese fans want him to trade Yao to another team, or don't sign Yao on 2010. Thanks.
