The first thing that struck me while I was reviewing the latest posts is how little coverage the whole Yao Ming question is getting, and I thought it would be important to get it out in the open...okay, I jest, obviously, but there is, I feel,a need for clarification. For one thing, the board seems to have split into two fairly defined camps, the "Anti-Ming" group, and the "Pro-Ming" bunch, and the arguments that these two respective views have been waging has been entertaining, and thought provoking, but it has also been really spread out, so I thought that a summary might be in order. A second point is that very few of us who have become entrenched in our views have little first-hand knowledge upon which to base these firmly held opinions, and that is a source for confusion...Okay, without delay... * I have tried to remove my bias from these arguments, and present them as objectively as possible. Feel free to add those I've missed/forgotten/misrepresented.* Arguments For Taking Ming With The 1st Pick... 1) The Central Question...He is a legit center prospect, and those are such a rare commodity. Bone Fide centers are hardly ever seen these days, and it has gotten to the point where converted PFs are making All-Star teams, so the chance to get a real center is too much to pass up.Add to that the popular opinion that, with a few exceptions, you need a top center to be a consistent Ring threat.... 2)Square Peg, Square Hole... Our greatest need happens to coincide with the supposed top draft value this year, which makes it seem a perfect fit. When the top pick has been a 5 in other years, teams would take that guy even if they didn't have the need we do, nor the potential supporting cast. We need not begin another Twin Towers experiment to fit this guy in, hence it's a no-brainer. Ming (accoring to reports) will fill our greatest needs, rebounding, defense, shot blocking, post passing, and won't need to shoot the ball 30 times a night to justify his position, which fits in well with the cast of chuckers we currently employ. 3) The O'Neal Factor...It seem to be conceded that, barring injuries, the only teams with a chance to supplant the Lakers at the top of the heap are those who can account for him in the playoffs...No, Ming will not neutralize or dominate Shaq, but what he COULD do is give Shaq something he's never seen before; a guy he'll have to shoot over on offense, and come out to guard on defense, neither one of which he enjoys. Yes, he will physically dominate Ming at times, but of whom isn't that true, and with Ming already around 300 lbs, and the ability to add maybe 50 more, it won't be the cakewalk for O'Neal that he gets most nights. Also, O'Neal won't be around forever, and then who will be the most physically imposing center in the game? I don't see a better candidate that Ming. 4) The Rudy Files...We all know that Rudy loves loves loves tall guys who can shoot. This guy is 7-5 (or 7-6) and has range out to the arc. I swear he hasn't slept since we won the lottery... 5) It's All About the 'Tude...In a league replete with Gimme-Mine players and parolees, it is refreshing to have a guy (with talent) who just loves to play, loves to win, and will let the rest ( money, etc.) take care of itself. The chance to build around a guy like that doesn't come around every day, and I really think that we can't overlook this factor... 6) Upside...Considering his age, his level of coaching thus far, his attitude and work-ethic, and his freakish physical package, what is most exciting about Ming isn't how good he'll be in the short run, but how great he could be in the long run. He just might do to the game what Jabbar, Chamberlain, Mikkan, Dream, O'Neal and other revolutionary centers have done, and the chance to be along for that ride is amazing... 7) The Whole Sixty Billion Chinese Ming Thing....In addition to the basketball advantages, there are the obvious ( and less so) commercial/cultural aspects to consider. In addition to tapping into the vast Chinese market for viewing, merchandise, etc., there is also the opportunity to become THE team to that hyper-populated land, and a lot of the rest of Eastern Asia as well, in a similar fashion to how the Pirates were THE team for Hispanic baseball players for a long time due to Clemente, or the Mariners are now THE team in Japan because of Ichiro. Add to that the fact that so many Asian Americans have already expressed a new-found interest in the Rockets, and it's a financial winfall...With a new stadium on the horizon, and currently pathetic attendance, it would seem to be a fore-gone conclusion... 8) The 1st Pick Glamour...Another less tangible aspect to getting Ming is that he is considered The Man in this draft, and having The Man adds a certain glamour to a team, as the fact that other players have already expressed an interest in playing with Ming attests. In addition, just having the top pick assures you of a certain, albeit short lived, hype. There are several reasons why the top pick is almost never traded, and this is one of them. Arguments Against Drafting Ming With The 1st Pick... 1) The Red Tape...Considering the value of the top pick, all these international complications are way too much to deal with, and threaten the possibility that the return on the investment will always come with conditions. Might not be available for training camp, and he needs it. Let someone else have this headache... 2) The I Swear My Sister Has Bigger Pipes Than This Guy Argument...The thought of the reed-thin Ming banging against some of the NBA Hardbodies is enough to make you cringe. Yeah, he's thick down low, but how will he be able to compete up top? 3) Win, Now, Ming Later! Many fans are sick and tired of waiting for this team to develop, and the prospect of taking on another, bigger project is frustrating. Add to that the fact that Memphis gets our pick next year, and the desire to win now might be more appealing that the chance to watch Ming develop, if he does. 4) The Steve/Cat Potential Problem....Whether justified or not, there are rumours/conjectures floating around that Steve and Mobley strongly opposed to drafting Ming. If this is true, it represents a potentially serious problem, whose simplest solution might be to cater to our current stars' demands, rahter than risk alienating them for a might-never-be. 5) the Level of Competion...opponents to drafting Ming often cite the fact that he has yet to play a level of ball we consider a serious guage of one's abilities. We don't have a firm hold on the relative talent/skill level of the CBA, and, hence, do not have any real idea how good this kid is. With the 1st pick, you kinda want to know that stuff... 6) It's Called Center, Not Small Forward....Many have cited the fact that Ming supposedly has more of a perimeter game than a true center's game, and he doesn't really fill our needs if he's just a taller Matt Bullard. The potential that he's a tweener, center body, forward game/attitude puts some of of him, especially with regards to the 1st overall pick... 7) Bradley....The last great, tall, skilled center project was a major dissapointment, leading many to question the wisdom of being the next at the craps table... 8) J-Will, or trade return, fill our needs more...With the presence of another great player on the board, and the (alleged)willingness of gm's to sell us their souls, daughters, etc. for the chance to grab one of the two top players, the opinion that we might take better advantage of our luck right now by exploiting the current hype around these 2 guys, and filling our needs with established stars has many supporters. Let someone else take the gamble, let's cash in our windfall now, rather than letting it ride on a bigger gamble... Okay, those are the arguments as I have read them. There are even some established positions which refute some of these arguments, but I thought I'd leave that fun up to you....
He won't dominate like Shaq. He doesn't have the potential to do so either. Shaq dominates because of those big shoulders+arms. If he didn't have those big powerful shoulders+arms he wouldn't be as dominating. Ming is sort of a tweener, despite his height. Also, with his shorter arms he will not get as many blocks as expected for his height. But he'll still get A LOT. I'd say 2.5-3.0 is a realistic possibility for him. This raises another question though. Will this lineup: Francis Mobley ?????? Griffin Ming be able to score a lick in the low post? You can't just go and shoot jumpers or lowsy turn around jumpers (except if you are Patrick, but that's another story ) all day and expect to win. A player or two eventually goes cold (see: Doug Christie, Peja Stojakovic). I think the Rockets would be better off getting a resemblance to a low post presence. And if they feel they cannot get one by trading down, they should trade the top pick for a top 5 pick and MANY future firsts (not lottery protected). The Warriors are a good team to choose to deal with, as they'd give up the world for Williams, and they aren't getting out of the lottery any time soon.
I don't suppose anyone is claiming that Ming will dominate exactly like Shaq, just that he might dominate as much as Shaq, albeit in a different way, just like Dream dominated in a different way than Jabbar, Walton dominated in a different way than Chamberlain, etc...I am not even saying that he will dominate, but the possibility is there, and if he does dominate, he will do it in a new way, like all the greats before him...
I agree w/ NYKRule, I see the positives w/ drafting Ming, but the gambles are way too much. For a team that needs more than one whole to fill, and is in a position where fans are not willing to wait 2 or 3 years for a playoff team, I see this as a chance to get quanity and quality out of this pick.
I really want to see how teams will stopp the Rockets if they run the vaunted Utah play with Ming. Ming on the left block, francis on the right side. Francis throws the ball to the wing and rubs offs the high post looking for the ball, he doesn't get it nad runs through and set a pick for Ming on the left block. Ming rolls to the ball. If Francis sets a pick and Ming rolls, he can get the ball under the basket or 2 or 3 ft away. I would like to see anyone stop a 7'6 man that close to the basket. Utah ran this play for yr and a lot of times Malone would get the ball so close to the basket, you would have to foul him or he'd get layups. With Ming being that big, the entry pass would be as simple as a piece of cake. If the rockets run play like this, its going to be nights or days when he'll score at a high rate. I want to see how many people talk about his upper body strength then. Great Post -Jag
totally agree. we should trade that pick. but seems clippers still don't plan to trade odem so. maybe we just trade ming to the knicks say : rice+mo+ming for spree+kurt+7pick+2003first round + 2004first round.
ming can score in the low post against most teams in the NBA. he may play poorly against shaq, mourning, mutombo..., but even then he still can hit the jumper forcing them to open up the lane for our guards. NYKRule- you're right we cant live on jumpers, but we can live on lay-ups caused by the threat of yao's shot. ok, worst case: yao cant play offence, but we only need him from a defencive standpoint. everything else is gravy. give me our 2001-02 healthy roster, add a center that will get 8 rebs and 3 blocks and we make the playoffs for sure. in 17 days we will be yaod!!
The Raef Lafrentz strategy didn't work. The team won't be as good without a center that can fight for offensive boards. I think chances off offensive boards would get MORE points than sending Ming out on the perimeter. But therein lies the problem, Ming won't be able to play downlow. I still think the best option is trading with the Warriors. They'll bring the future picks to the table.
JAG, you summed things up pretty well. The only real points I would add are these.... The drafting of Ming means that Eddie Griffin and Yao Ming would play long stretches together eventually. From a defensive standpoint how is this going to be that much better than what Dallas brings to the table with LaFrentz and Nowitzki and Bradley off the bench? Basically it seems like a couple of players that block shots well but really arent good positionally on defense. It was proven this season with this Dallas team that even tho their offense fit together so well it wasnt enough to even get them through round 2. One other thing.... The most common scout opinion you read esp after Ming's workout in Chicago is that he is a Rik Smits type of player. Many consider him to be a talented center but not a franchise center. Is it really worth it to wait 3-4 yrs for a player like this to develop and go through more losing in the bargain? Is the end product that much better than the Dallas frontline puts out? Will this team even be as good as Dallas considering Nash is excellent at pushing the break and getting the offense in high gear, and the Rockets guards are not?
No, Eddie Griffin is a much, much, much, much, much better shot blocker than Nowitzki will ever be. However, still, the team will not be able to live off the Raef Lafrentz technique.
"No, Eddie Griffin is a much, much, much, much, much better shot blocker than Nowitzki will ever be." No doubt, Ive never denied the shotblocking of this team. Question for me is will we be able to deny position at all on defense or will we get pushed around and give up easier looks. The point I was trying to make is that Dallas all around blocks shots pretty well with LaFrentz, Nowitzki and Bradley off the bench. They have arguably the most electric offense in league averaging around 105 PPG. I'd like for a pro-Ming person to explain to me how this team would be that much better if at all than Dallas defensively and exactly how they could even conceive putting up anywhere near 105 PPG w/o a PG like Nash that pushes the action. Lets remember something, the Dallas model only produced a 2nd rd loss, how would this team be any better?
totally agree with you. we need to trade the pick. gs, clippers, whatever. let ny have ming if they really like him, let them be the laughing stock of the league rather than us.
Against some of the elite 4's in the west in his 1st yr, he was backed down, but look how many shots he changed and blocked when he was starting and played good minutes. Ming should be as good or batter because he will be playing against the weakest position in the league. In the west, he has shaq,vlade,and i guess big dave, in the east he has an illed zo,a stiff dike and thats it. He and girffin is light yrs ahead of Dirk and and Raef defensively. Raef isn't strong or quick enough to play either the 4 or the 5 and Dirk is just a offensive player from the 4 spot. Your comparison aren't even close. I want to see Dale Davis,Greg Osteretag,Jake,Nesterovic,Wright,Raef,Dampier,Foyle, and some of the these other centers post up a 300lbs 7'6 man. It would be to the rockets blessing to have both on the court at the same time.
I want to see Dale Davis,Greg Osteretag,Jake,Nesterovic,Wright,Raef,Dampier,Foyle, No no no no no. The goal isn't to make the playoffs. You want Ming to dominate the title contenders. While Raef is in there, he does not have a post up game (which is why the Raef Lafrentz technique DOES NOT work, and why Ming WON'T help the guards get open layups, because the Raef Lafrentz technique doesn't work). They will NOT get past the Kings for a while if they try the Raef technique.
"He and girffin is light yrs ahead of Dirk and and Raef defensively." I dont think so. Shot blocking does not measure truly how good a player is on the defensive end. Sacramento was a much improved defensive team this season and had the Lakers on the ropes despite a gimpy Stojakovic. Take a wild guess what kind of BPG averages their three main frontcourt cogs had.... Divac - 1.18 BPG Webber - 1.42 BPG Pollard - .95 BPG The reason they were better defensively is that they were very good at denying position and not letting the major frontcourt players in the West get into their comfort zones. I dont think Griffin-Ming will do that. Thus, Ive been harpring on the fact that the Rockets should pair Griffin with a tough "banger" as opposed to Ming. I dont buy this argument that well Ming wont have to match up against anyone good. Bottom line, is you gotta be able to switch over if Griffin is getting killed, Dallas cant do that and we wouldnt be able to either. Shot blocking or not.
Jag, I really like your post. I am in the anti-Ming camp (have actually posted as violently anti-Ming, but will back off a bit if Rudy and Co. like him, and actuall have an informed opinion - but I digress), and you did not address my two concers. 1) I think he is hiding. Basically one workout and it was a controlled scrimage designed to showcase his streangths. It was not designed to be an analytical tool for the drafting team. I think the best take the compitition head on. They do not hide behind the skirts of their government, busy schedule, jet-lag, language barrier, etc. I am not making the tired comparison of Ming to Bradley, but Bradley also hid. Now we know why - he had something to hide. 2) Don't laugh, I am very concerned about his defense. Everybody calm down there is a big difference between shot blocking and defense. Just look at Cato's game if you do not understand the difference. In his controlled work out, he was backed down by a nobody and dunked on. Danger Will Robinson, Danger. If we pick him, I will learn to love him - but if I were GM, I would never pick him.
Excellent point #2 Pat. Thats the point Im trying to get across in my anti-Ming argument. I fear that if the Rockets go the Ming route, their defense will be along the lines of Dallas, and their offense will be no where near comparable b/c they lack a high octane push the break PG like the Mavs have. Thus, I just cannot see the team with Yao making it to the top. Its going to be 3-4 yrs of losing and then nothing except maybe a second round and out to show for it. Trade the pick.
Would starting Kenny Thomas at the three provide a low post threat offensively(albeit not shaq .. but never the less a threat). I'm not totally convinced he couldn't guard 75% of threes in this league (especially with a 7'6 guy and Griffin in the lane to have his back)
