Bill Simmons NBA playoffs mailbag: Very Interesting Trade scenario for the Rox

I repped you. While I wholeheartedly disagree with your premise, great thoughtful and reasoned post. Complete opposite of what the majority of those holding your opinion have contributed to the discussion: "Y WOLD YOO TRAED TEH WHOLE TEEM 4 ONE GUY LULZ TEHY LOST BY 58."

we need more posts like yours for actual mature debate. otherwise it's just a bunch of us 99ers jerking each other off in agreement while the rookies throw feces against the wall.

 

LOL, thanks for the green. But you know, I'd rather see the 99ers jerking each other off than the feces throwing rooks. (god, I hope no one takes us literally)

 

Morey and Les would both need to be committed if they traded literally the entire team, including our best role players (who he signed to the team) just for Chris Paul and guys that didn't show up for him last year.

 

I would do this trade in a heartbeat. You get 24 year old top 5 talent for role players. People seem to forget how good Peja was under RA. He sucked last year but think about how many wide open looks he would get with CP3 and Yao on the floor. We get a backup for Yao when (not if) he goes down with an injury next year. As a matter of fact, having someone like Chandler would probably allow us to rest Yao more which hopefully might help keep him uninjured. If we could somehow keep Landry or Scola it would be even better.

 

If we give up Scolandry, we'd have to play Chandler WITH Yao at the 4, and hope that Chuck/Dorsey are adequate backups.

 

I looked at the other teams and did a quick analysis. Undoubtedly, I have overlooked or overly dinged a few situations and somebody will point that out.

<hr>
Boston
After the Big Three of KG, Pierce and Ray Allen, they would be hardpressed to stack enough salary to meet the needs of New Orleans.

Philadelphia
Probably would like to move Elton Brand. No idea where they stand
financially.

New Jersey
Rumored to be positioning for 2010. Already have Devin Harris, so no need to go crazy trading for Chris Paul. Possible Financial Concerns.

Toronto
Marion is a 2009 expiring. Not sure where they stand financially. Have to be prepared for 2010, so doubtful they will gamble in Summer 2009.

New York
Positioning for 2010. Can't see them taking on bad contracts at the same time they are trying to get rid of Curry's deal.

Chicago
Have Derrick Rose. Hinrich is already overpaid and redundant. No need to go after Paul.

Detroit
Wanted to clear some salary and get a redo this summer. Unlikely to take on that much vet salary that quickly.

Indiana
Rumors that they have their own financial issues.

Milwaukee
They would have to stack some contracts to raise enough salary. Not sure if they have money issues, but possible since they are a small market team.

Orlando
Have Jameer Nelson returning and I don't see a large enough contract of a player that they would want to get rid of and expires in 2010 to make a deal.

Atlanta
Quite a few 2009 expirings and a thrifty reputation. Hard to see them taking on New Orleans vets when their core is young. It would have been easier if they would have drafted Chris Paul.

Miami
Positioning for 2010. Probably no desire to take on contracts that would block that. Yes, Jermaine's contract would serve the purpose if Miami decided to trade in Summer 2009 instead of waiting for Summer 2010.

Charlotte
I think they have their own money issues and the majority owner might be seeking to sell some or all of his position

Washington
I don't see any contracts that fit the needs of New Orleans

Denver
Don't see any 2010 ending contracts that are large enough to matter.

Portland
LaFrentz's deal expires Summer 2009 and he is likely out of the league. They would have to stack quite a few contracts to get enough salary to mean anything. They probably wouldn't mind picking up Battier if there is some wheeling and dealing going on. Unless it is an extremely favorable deal, hard to see them breaking up their youth movement for New Orleans vets. Peja would take shots from Durant. Not a good thing.

Utah
Have Deron Williams. No need for Chris Paul.

Minnesota
Youth movement and they moved some less desirable contracts last summer in the Mayo – Love trade. Likely to build through the Draft than take on Vets.

Oklahoma
Building for the future. Not sure where they stand financially.

L.A. Lakers
Have Odom and Ariza as Free Agents to decide upon. Probably wouldn't mind moving Walton and Sasha, but likely little demand for those two.

Phoenix
They have their own financial concerns.
Shaq + Amare works for Peja + Chris Paul + Chandler + Posey.

Golden State
No idea. Not sure if they even have any idea.

L.A. Clippers
They have their own vets with unfavorable contracts that need to be moved. Nothing to see here.

Sacramento
Currently in a youth movement and they might have their own financial concerns.

San Antonio
Aging team that needs a youth movement, not more vets. They have Parker and Manu, so no burning urge to trade for Chris Paul and Peja.

Houston
Already under discussion.

Dallas
Other than using Kidd or Dirk, would have to stack quite a few contracts to get to the money needed. No idea what kind of deal Kidd will command, but New Orleans isn't lookng for too many longterm contracts. Dirk + Peja + Chandler isn't a hardnosed frontcourt. Damp isn't inspirational either, but that goes off into a different and unrelated discussion.

New Orleans
Already under discussion

Memphis
Currently in a youth movement and they have their own financial concerns

<hr>

Teams that are fairly well established at PG and would be reluctant to swing a major deal for Chris Paul.

1. Spurs
2. Magic
3. Bulls
4. Jazz

Teams that are positioning for 2010

1. Knicks
2. Nets *
3. Heat
4. Toronto

Teams that have their own financial concerns or have reputations for being <i>thrifty</i>

1. Suns
2. Grizzlies
3. Clippers **
4. Hawks
5. Pacers

Teams that are currently in youth movements and unlikely to want numerous vets added to their rosters.

1. Trailblazers
2. Timberwolves
3. Thunder
4. Kings ***


* The Nets could also be in the established PG group and possibly the Financial Concerns group.

** The Clipper could also be listed in the Youth Movement group.

*** The Kings could possibly be in the Financial Concerns group.


17 teams listed above + New Orleans brings the total to 18 teams. That leaves only 12 teams to work a major deal with New Orleans. There are probably a few others that could be listed in the Financial Concerns group, but I was lenient when uncertain.

The Hornets are in a bad position if they have to become a <i>Motivated Seller</i> in a <i>Buyer's Market</i>.

 

I'd do T-Mac/Scola/Brooks for Paul/Chandler

 

Elton Brand is probably the biggest name that we could likely acquire with T-Mac's expiring contract alone. The problem? Brand looked old and slow this year then yet another injury on top of that. Couple that with the remaining $66M he's owed -- the Sixers are going to have to part with a Thaddeus Young type if they have any prayer of moving Brand. Hell, even that likely won't be enough.

 

Portland
LaFrentz's deal expires Summer 2009 and he is likely out of the league. They would have to stack quite a few contracts to get enough salary to mean anything. They probably wouldn't mind picking up Battier if there is some wheeling and dealing going on. Unless it is an extremely favorable deal, hard to see them breaking up their youth movement for New Orleans vets. Peja would take shots from Roy. Not a good thing.

Fixed

 

So, so true.

 

Rep given. thanks for this exhaustive breakdown.

 

i think the fact that both chandler and peja have only two years remaining on their deals makes this deal even more of a no-brainer. usually when you are swallowing some kind of a poison pill, you are talking about guys like vin baker or maurice taylor who either aren't even able to get on the court anymore or have multiple years remaining. in this scenario, you're talking about two guys who will both be expiring contracts in just one year in their own respect, one of which is still an extremely effective big, while the other has had success with our current coach.

leebigez - i have to disagree with you completely about peja. while this deal would be a complete no-brainer, i won't try to sugarcoat it unnecessarily. peja would be unmoveable for the time being. he is completely garbage at the moment.

 

That would be sweet and a no-brainer but if they move Paul I am quite sure they would want to include Peja to get out from under his contract.

 

thacabbage

Thanks for the rep. I repaid in kind.

thacabbage

I agree with you. In past years, teams were a little more willing to gamble on players. With some teams positioning for 2010 Free Agency and other teams struggling financially, the trade market won't be the same this summer.

With only 30 teams in the League, those attempting to make trades this summer will notice a difference with the other teams sidelined - prevented from doing significant trades.

 

Great overview, Mango.

One thing I'd note though, is that many of the teams "positioning for 2010" are doing so in hopes of landing a superstar -- since most would consider Paul on a pretty close axis with LeBron (maybe not quite LeBron) and DWade, most teams would give up 2010 cap space if that's what lands you Chris Paul.

Of the teams you listed, here's a few that I think would make plays for Paul:

Miami -- A Paul-Wade backcourt could honestly be one of the best of all time. They could package Jermaine O'Neal with some combo of Daequan Cook, Mario Chalmers, or Michael Beasley, and have a slew of sizable expiring contracts too -- Haslem, Blount, and James Jones.

Detroit -- They can offer something most others can't -- instant gratification. They don't really have much cheap young talent though, outside of Stuckey, and their biggest expiring is Rip.

Oklahoma City -- Who wouldn't want to pair Chris Paul and Kevin Durant? Like Detroit, they have the cap space to take a pure salary dump (and wanted to do so for Chandler), and have one good expiring they could use in Earl Watson (6m) plus a couple smaller ones (Watson and Wilkens at 3-3.5m each). They could even include Chris Paul-lite in Russell Westbrook. A core of Paul, Durant, Jeff Green and another top 3 pick is pretty scary to me. A few people have prognosticated OKC as a team like Portland that could be on the rise -- making a play for Paul would just move that future up a few years.

 

If New Orlean is really looking to trade CP3 as bait to dump bad contracts and start over, I can see a few realistic proposal from the Rockets:

Plan A:
T-Mac ($22M expiring) + Brooks (Cheap talant) + Landry (Cheap talant)
for
CP3 + Chandler (2yr) & Posey (3yr)'s bad contracts

Yao Ming, Hayes, Dorsey
Chandler, Scola, Cook
S. Battier, Posey, White
R. Artest, Wafer, Barry
Chris Paul, Lowry

w/ Posey on board, we don't even need to re-sign Wafer and save about $3~$4 mil./

Plan B: (if New Orlean's GM is smarter than I think then we probably have to sweeten the deal)
T-Mac ($22M expiring) + Brooks (Cheap talant) + Landry (Cheap talant) + Battier (Intangible?)
for
CP3 + Chandler & Peja's even worse contracts

Yao Ming, Hayes, Dorsey
Chandler, Scola, Cook
R. Artest, Peja, White
V. Wafer, Barry
Chris Paul, Lowry

 

I'll be reporting this post for abusing the rep system. In fact thacabbage has done nothing but spam this thread with public announcements of who he has given rep to, in hopes of receiving some handouts in return. Similar to Derek Fisher in the playoffs, he needs his reputation as a veteran to get some playing time.

New Orleans will probably look to trade Chandler and Posey as individuals like they did earlier in the season. Losing Chandler alone puts them under the salary cap.

In regards to the topic, Chandler, Stojakovic and Posey is alot of cash to take on in return for Chris Paul. The Rockets would have 5 players taking up their entire salary cap, three of them grossly overpaid (Chandler, Peja and Posey). You always want someone like Chris Paul on your team but you have to wonder how effective he can be playing within a system, instead of having free reigns to an offense. Does it justify the cost of putting your roster at a standstill for the next 2 years and changing the defensive identity of this team? Are we going to be much better off than a few years ago when all we had was TMac and Yao and a coach who specialized in overachieving?

Great PG's who like to dominate the ball without enough talent around them haven't been successful this year (Parker, Paul, Williams). Obviously we try everything to get Paul, but we should understand we hold the leverage in this situation and stay away from Tyson Chandler while retaining Scola (they would still have David West) and/or Battier.

 

Damn, you figured me out ronny. You do realize that if reciprocity were my intent, i could just as easily leave my name in the rep comments field, right?...

i am "spamming this thread with public announcements" as a public show of appreciation toward what i personally deemed as a very meritorious string of posts on this last page. i guess "great post" is off limits too, huh?

if you can't comprehend the innocuity behind that motivation, i really can't help you.

 

The only reason that I posted in this thread is because of the presence of people like <i>thacabbage</i> and <i>NIKEstrad</i> who are two of the top three posters in this Forum. Take a few minutes to read some threads that they are not participating in and then come back here to appreciate the difference and quality that they bring here.

There appears to be an implication that I responded with hopes of garnering <i>treats</i> from <i>thacabbage</i> and/or that I am easily moved to give <i>treats</i> to others. I have never had a reputation as a <i>warm & fuzzy</i> person that tries to curry favor from others and/or easily parts with accolades for others.

 

Aint that the truth....on both counts.



now...to be fair, ronny may have been being facetious...I did not receive a reported post from him re: this thread.