[NYT]North Korea Claims to Conduct 2nd Nuclear Test

I would - they don't really have all that much to sell, and it's not like a million dollars or whatever is going to change much in the grand scheme.

 

This is what people forget and it must be kept in mind. North Korea could completely total Seoul with their conventional weapons. No pre-emptive strike could stop this. The loss of life would be beyond imagination as NK threw everything, including the kitchen sink, at Seoul. Anyone who was against the attack of the Branch Davidian compound should just think of some multiple of 1 million people possibly dying in a relatively short period of time.

 

I'm pretty sure they would sell nukes or nuke technology for more than a million dollars.

Its a fact they have sold missile and other weapon technology in violation of international standards. It wouldn't surprise me if they have little qualms of selling nukes or WMD technology.

 

Google "United States Cave Busters".

 

Ok so make it 10 million dolllars - it's not like they can put it on eBay -the market for illicit nuclear technology has several severe handicaps.

 

They aren't much use if you don't know where to shoot them.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned the importance of China. China is the one propping up their economy and consequently the only country that has leverage over the North Koreans. One has to remember, China doesn't want North Korea to have nuclear weapons either. North Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons only reduces China's relative power in the area, as it may inspire the latent nuclear states like Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons, or cause the United States to be more in favor of a missile shield. While this missile shield would ostensibly be portrayed as protection from North Korean missiles, it would also have the effect of destroying the Chinese nuclear deterrent power. As such, instead of sanctions, the US and its allies like South Korea and Japan need to apply pressure on China (via threats of contemplating a missile defense system or developing its own nuclear weapons program) to show them that the cost of not acting (reduced Chinese nuclear deterrent power) is greater than the cost of acting (instability in North Korea, potential influx of refugees across the Yalu river).

 

Good point bringing in China, but it isn't that simple. They only have so much influence with NK, which is proven by this nuclear test. Because of the border and potential refugee problem, NK has China as a "hostage" (rhetorically) like they do South Korea. The Chinese government also doesn't have to be taught by anyone what their best interest is. The U.S. knows this and is why China won't face sanctions from the U.S. over NK. NK is one piece of the global chess game between the two countries. The U.S. can't force China to force NK to do anything. If China could have done so, they would have forced NK to give up nukes years ago.

It all falls on a strong, sane leader to emerge from NK. Until then, the theatrics will probably continue. A leadership vacuum can be seen as a sign of weakness and the current NK braintrust wants to project strength to the world no matter how much it ticks everyone off.

 

You've got quite a bit of reading to do on the NK military -- it's not state of the art, but it a well armed and well trained force.

 

That might get a small few on the surface, but NK was thinking more along the lines of thermo-nuke when they built and reinforced the deeper tunnels and bunkers.

 

North Korea is such an a curious case. It's all about one man maintaining his dynasty at all costs.

North Korea has had many opportunities to join the rest of the world as everyone from Clinton to bush to China to Russia would be super happy to have this nation stop being a pain in the butt.

All they have to do is give up long range ballistic missles and nuclear capabilities, in exchange for a lot more then food and fuel oil. They have always made these big motions toward it, and then taken a massive step back.

I really think it's the whim of a few ego-inflated men driving this nation and everyone knows it, and N. Korea is only further isolating itself.

The thing is, there's no break-through agreement or sanctions that will solve this. Basically it will come down to someone with power in N. Korea getting tired of the status quo...which may be hard when you are living comfortably in a palace.

 

I think that was my point...to a previous poster who had mentioned President Obama...

 

Of course they have an agenda...it may not be clear and they may not have a clear leader right now with Kim Jong-Il reportedly being ill, but they have one. Whether it's getting attention for the sake of getting attention, or getting attention to make demands to get aid, etc., they have an agenda.

 

Understood. I meant there is no long-term agenda. All of this activity is a placeholder until the new authority figure comes on the scene, takes control, consolidates power and decides what to do. Stirring things up to get more aid, etc is certainly one of their goals with this.

 

These little guys?

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/04/peering_into_north_korea.html


It would like fighting a war on the Little People Big World Farm

 

Thanks for the link. Great pictures. Makes me sick to my stomach about the plight of North Koreans.

 

Photos 14, 32, and 37 give me the impression of what we would be up against.. Looks less then stellar looks like children. The Iraqi forces looked better then these guys...and lets not forget they had Scuds point at Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Kuwait City

 

They're about the same size as the Vietnamese.

 

Boy am I glad we spent so much effort in Iraq. You know, where those WMDs were.