Bill Simmons NBA playoffs mailbag: Very Interesting Trade scenario for the Rox

Revenue, maybe, their attendance is barely below the Rockets.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2009.html

 

There are no other players in the same category as those players.

 

Wow, Simmons really came up with the doosey with the Godfather trade scenario as he called it. I know he's good friends with Morey. I wonder....

 

This is a no brainer. You get CP3 and keep Artest and Yao?

You guys are waaayy overrating our role players.

Brooks will never become a good enough passer and many people here think Lowry is the future over him anyway. You keep Lowry in this deal and you sell high on a score first, streaky, under sized PG in AB.

Landry and Scola may not both have to be included, as previously mentioned NO already has West. Another Landry type player could be found in the draft, Boston got one in Big Baby for example. I would prefer to keep Scola but I think the Hornets would want him, can't blame them. I trust Morey could keep one and include Cook instead.

Battier....as been discussed over and over on here, he's a great glue player but he's making close to 7m and does not score consistently. While valuable he is on the wrong side of 30 and not a deal breaker for a 24 year old CP3.

So I bet we keep Landry and give them Cook.

CP3/Lowry
Peja/Wafer
Artest/Posey
Chandler/Landry
Yao/Hayes

Start with this and let Morey work his magic with the MLE, draft, or any other trades.

 

Garnett did get traded for Ratliff's expiring contract.

 

Ah! The old "Major League" strategy.

 

If you want to trade for Chris Paul, a third team (and possibly a fourth team) will likely have to be involved. This is, of course, presuming that N'Awluns is really in an untenable financial position.

I've looked at several scenarios and ranked them accordingly. (In separate postings to come)

Scenario #1 (Four teams involved - which I would normally not like because too many cooks messing with the trade "pot")

Houston
PG Chris Paul (NO)
G/F Peja Stojakovic (NO)
F Yi Jianlian (NJ)
F/C Sean Williams (NJ) (Trade Exemption)
F Joe Alexander (MIL)
2009 2nd round pick (#41) from MIL

Rationale: Paul = Top 5 NBA player who can trigger and run the offense as well as be a defensive dynamo. Stojakovic is the outside shooter (along with Battier, Artest, & Wafer) to keep defenses honest and make them pay when they double Yao (plus he played for Adelman in Sacramento). Putting Yi and Alexander (born in Taiwan, speaks fluent Mandarin) with Yao = the Great Wall of Houston (great marketing angle!). Either Alexander or Yi could be developed into a future starter at SF or PF. Both provide the shooting F needed to be paired with Yao. Sean Williams is a Houston native and can provide rebounding as well as shot-blocking. The #41 pick is targeted at F/C Chris Johnson out of LSU, a forward-center type who can block shots and hit jumpers - even if he is rail thin.
Starting 5: Paul; Artest; Stojakovic; Scola; Yao
Bench: Lowry; Wafer; Battier; Alexander; Yi; Williams; Johnson
Running team: Paul; Wafer; Artest; Alexander, Williams
Ball control / post play: Lowry; Artest; Battier; Yi / Scola; Yao
Defense: Lowry; Artest; Battier; Scola; Williams
3-pointers: Paul; Wafer; Stojakovic; Alexander; Yao

This has bigger implications than just Houston. If that team ends up winning an NBA champship, it could lead to better relations between China and the U.S.. (stranger things have happened = ping pong diplomacy!)


New Orleans
G/F Tracy McGrady (HOU)
PG Aaron Brooks (HOU)
G/F Chris Douglas-Roberts (NJ)
F/G Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (MIL)
F/C Joey Dorsey (HOU)
G Salim Stoudamire (MIL)
2009 1st round pick from MIL (#10)
2012 1st round pick from HOU
Cash from Houston

Rationale: The goal is to become more "financially responsible" (i.e. dump long-term contracts of CP3, Stojakovic, Posey). T-Mac's contract expires at the end of next season. In the interim, T-Mac provides an offensive juggernaut for the Hornets. Brooks is not quite on CP3's level - but who is. He is a more financially viable playmaker who can be another offensive threat for the Hornets. CDR is included because the Hornets are losing a number of players, but he could provide some offensive scoring with increased playing time. Mbah a Moute is another cost-effective player albeit one who is known for his defense more than his offense. Dorsey is front-court depth. Swapping picks with Milwaukee gives the team a lottery pick. The 2012 1st round pick from Houston and cash seal the deal.

New Jersey
G Charlie Bell (MIL)
G Brent Barry (HOU)
2010 1st round pick from HOU
Rights to F Lior Eliyahu (HOU)

Rationale: The Nets want 2010 cap space and have soured on Yi and Sean Williams. Bell could be solid off the bench and his contract is manageable enough to be traded in the future. Barry is back-court depth at a low cost. The 2010 1st round pick (and Eliyahu) will be paired with whoever the Nets are able to sign in the 2010 free agent market.

Milwaukee
F/G James Posey (NO)
F Carl Landry (HOU)
2009 1st round pick from NO (#21)
Rights to G Brad Newley (HOU)

Rationale: Posey and Landry are the real targets; they are wash in terms of talent with Mboute and Alexander. They do however fit more with Coach Skiles' defensive mindset. Landry is also a Milwaukee native. The Bucks save some money by dropping lower in the draft; they will need it with some of their potential re-sign targets (Villanueva, Sessions). Newley is a deal sweetner.

I could also see New Orleans sending F/C Tyson Chandler (an L.A. native) to the Clippers for the rights to C/F Marcus Camby; Camby's contract expires sooner than Chandler's.

 

Only chinese fan will want Yi on the Rockets

 

Wildly more involved than the Simmons fantasy, but I appreciate the work you put into the post.

 

Despite how good it might sound for all teams, these 4 team deals rarely happen for two reasons:

1. 1 or 2 of the teams realize they can get a better deal done in a smaller trade
2. 1 or 2 of the teams want more for what they are giving up, ruining the deal

Any one of the 4 teams could ruin the trade. Meaning a smaller 2 team trade is more likely because there are less variables.

 

Well the Rockets are in the bottom half of the league, does that really prove the NOH aren't one of the worst. They did well enough this year that they didn't need extra help from the State of Louisiana, but they still pulled from the NBA charity pot. I was looking at numbers in general pre and post Katrina, which show that the Hornets rank near the bottom of the NBA in attendance. In fact last year, one of their best years in terms of attendance, they were still in the bottom third. I mean you put what I wrote in bold. Does that mean you think being in the bottom third (bottom forth for the last decade) is not one of the worst? I guess I am not sure what you are trying to say. Is your point that their attendance is not really bad but rather just pretty bad? And that "maybe" their revenue might be bad as well? Fair enough.

-V

 

lmfao this would be the worst trade in the history of bartering, im talkin all the way back to when the caveman who invented the wheel traded it for a couple rocks

 

There is revenue and then there is revenue. From Forbes...

New Orleans Hornets stadium revenue - $67 million - 23% of team revenue.

Houston Rockets stadium revenue - $137 million - 29% of team revenue.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/32/nba08_Houston-Rockets_322525.html


As you can see from the above (2008 numbers), while the attendence figures are close, the profit from the teams' stadiums is vastly different and in Houston's favor.

 

Removing a healthy Tracy McGrady or even the one from 07-08, losing Battier, our top 2 offensive PFs, and then adding Paul and those inferior role players would barely upgrade the team if at all.

On the other side, the Hornets are a better basketball team with this trade, and keep in mind they're in our division so we play them 4 times a season. Imagine if T-Mac comes back with reasonable health. Lets just assume they re-sign their unrestricted free agents. They would have to go small, but would be a nightmare matchup for the Rockets.

PG Brooks | Daniels
SG McGrady | Mo Pete | Butler | Brown
SF Battier | Wright | Bowen
PF West | Landry | Marks
C Scola | Ely | Armstrong

I would look forward to seeing Scola embarrass Yao with his flurry of quick maneuvers around the paint. On defense, just front Yao obviously. Battier would hound Artest and Paul, and T-Mac facilitating that offense would be unbelievable for them.

Hornets > Rockets if that happens.

 

Interesting info Deckard. Yeah, I am not sure what Carl Herrera meant when he said that "maybe" their revenues are one of the worst. No "maybe's" about it at all, according to the numbers they are bottom two in terms of annual revenue and and bottom 3 in terms of franchise value. Couple that with the fact that they are in the bottom third in attendance and it is not a pretty situation. Considering the fact that last year was a relatively good year for them and their payroll is going to increase, there will have to be some change.

-V

 

Not suprising. All I said in my post I was only addressing attendance, not dollars.

The Rockets almost certainly have higher ticket prices than the Hornets, and higher revenue from food, parking, alcohol, advertising (corporate sponsorship) etc.

For all the b****ing people make about the "lower bowl corprate stiffs" here, they are important in the Rockets ability to operate profitably and retain talent.

 

Maybe it's time for you to move to Milwaukee. The major markets like Houston will stop at nothing to build a team strong enough to challenge for the title, corporate sponsorships and revenue will make sure of this.

 

Almost every player in this trade people are worried about losing were pretty much picked up off the street by Morey. You do this trade to snatch the potential hall of fame PG, and let Morey reload the role players.. that's what he is best at. You can't go on forever adding good solid role players, because only 5 players are allowed on the floor at a time, and depth is only worth so much. I would fight like hell to keep Scola, but it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me. The idea here is that you are kind of "coloring up your chips" that Morey has amassed. Then when you have the best PG and probably the best center in the league, you let him start the process over again..

 

I personally would give him up if necessary, but I don't think Morey is going to agree to losing BOTH our PFs until all other avenues are explored and failed. I believe he is too smart to leave us with only Chuck as our solitary decent backup. Chandler *may* be able to handle the starting 4 AND backup 5, but unless Dorsey shows something, Chuck is the only other "big" we have.

Ive gotta think that Cook's expiring is much more desirable for NOLA than a glut at the 4. If you are trying to maximize your limited payroll, you don't pay that many guys to man two positions.

It is only a no-brainer with that slight tweak imo.



tcabb and Vivid,

outstanding job in this thread especially.

 

You said "revenue, maybe, their attendance is barely below the Rockets." How is NOH's revenue being one of the worst in the NBA a maybe? They have consistently been bottom 3 for a decade. They have also been consistently at the bottom in attendance. The Rockets have also consistently been in the bottom in terms of attendance for the last decade. This was one of our better years and we were still in the bottom half. This was one of NOH's best years and they were in the bottom third. What exactly were you trying to say/address? That they aren't one of the worst teams in the NBA in terms of attendance because they almost did as well as a consistently below average attendance team in one of their most "successful" years? That with a struggling economy we can expect the same "success" in attendance?

I agree that the over priced food and alcohol play a part in the Rockets financial success. Cheers Houston, keep drinking a grubbing until those wallets are empty.

-V