Bill Simmons NBA playoffs mailbag: Very Interesting Trade scenario for the Rox

this trade's crazy. Yao only has a few years left. there isn't time to rebuild again. Chandler and Peja are injury prone. even Paul's not an iron horse. Adelman's never had a dominant center until Yao and people thought he wasn't using him properly. he's never had a truly great PG either although i think Paul is a bit overrated. he hasn't taken his game to another level in the playoffs.

the question isn't can the team build a contender around Paul (i don't think he's the level of a Lebron, Wade, Kobe or Howard and can carry a team on his back). the question is how much do the Rockets improve at the PG spot with Paul, and lose at the other positions? the Rockets already have a fairly bright future at the PG slot. Brooks is kind of like a poor man's Paul anyway. sure he doesn't rack up the assists, but Paul's not going to average more than 8 assists in Adelman's offense. in this trade, you get another PG that's not a great 3 point shooter, another offensive liability in Chandler, and a defensive liability in Peja. speaking of Peja, who starts at the 3? i hope it's not Peja. if it's artest, say goodbye to ball movement. you have a ball stopper in Artest, and a PG that dominates the ball in a motion offense. the only efficient scorers are Yao and Paul and there's no guarantee that Paul would be effective at beating the fronting of Yao, which will certainly happen if he's playing with Chandler and the minimum salary player at SG (if they can't resign Wafer). that team won't have a single three point threat except Artest (oh gee), or Peja. speaking of Chandler, he's not a true PF. i guess he's supposed to be the backup for Yao then, but then the Rockets suddenly became really small. Artest is too slow now to play SG. i just can't remember the last time a team built around a point guard. i have to go all the way back to Magic Johnson. and i'm not even factoring the very slight possibility that T-Mac could become a top 10 player once again.

if the Rockets weren't contenders, or if Yao, Battier and Scola (and T-Mac)were just a couple years older, i'd do it. or if the player was Lebron, Wade, or even Howard. or if the Rockets could keep just one of their rotation players besides Brooks. right now that pot needs to be sweetened considerably.

 

They reason is clear: we are not a Championship level team if you assume Tmac can't play at the level he played 3 or 4 years ago.

Not only we are getting older, we are very inconsistent at PG play. You can't expect AB all of a sudden becomes a 44% 3 point shooter all season long like he did in Lakers series. It's just not going to happen. Whe AB is not hot, he doesn't make good decisions to help team win, and he does nothing else. Even if AB shot really well, 19 asts/22Tos as a staring PG is verey alarming.

And in playoffs, we don't have a closer, that's why game 3 and 4 against Blazers got so close in the end. We need one, either it's Nash, or CP3, or someone else.

 

I think you are star struck.

 

I would do all of the above deals. Anything that lets us keep Yao, Battier and Scola - I would never trade any of these three players, they are the heart and soul of the Rockets. Next hardest to part with are Landry and Brooks, but for Chris Paul, I would do that, no questions asked.

This one also works:

Paul, Peja, Chandler for T-Mac, Brooks, Landry, Barry, Cook, Dorsey

Successful Trade Scenario
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Due to Houston and New Orleans being over the cap, the 25% trade rule is invoked. Houston and New Orleans had to be no more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
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Houston Trade Breakdown
Change in Team Outlook: +1.4 ppg, +3.8 rpg, and +2.2 apg.

Incoming Players
Chris Paul
6-1 PG from Wake Forest
22.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 11.0 apg in 38.5 minutes
Tyson Chandler
7-1 C from Dominguez (HS)
8.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 0.5 apg in 32.1 minutes
Peja Stojakovic
6-9 SF / SG from Serbia-Montenegro (Foreign)
13.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.2 apg in 34.2 minutes
Outgoing Players
Joey Dorsey
6-9 PF from Memphis
0.7 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg in 2.1 minutes
Aaron Brooks
5-11 PG from Oregon
11.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.0 apg in 25.0 minutes
Brent Barry
6-6 SG from Oregon State
3.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.4 apg in 15.5 minutes
Carl Landry
6-8 PF from Purdue
9.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.6 apg in 21.3 minutes
Brian Cook
6-9 PF from Illinois
3.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg in 6.9 minutes
Tracy McGrady
6-8 SG / SF from Mount Zion Christian Academy (HS)
15.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.0 apg in 33.8 minutes

New Orleans Trade Breakdown
Change in Team Outlook: -1.4 ppg, -3.8 rpg, and -2.2 apg.

Incoming Players
Joey Dorsey
6-9 PF from Memphis
0.7 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg in 2.1 minutes
Aaron Brooks
5-11 PG from Oregon
11.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 3.0 apg in 25.0 minutes
Brent Barry
6-6 SG from Oregon State
3.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.4 apg in 15.5 minutes
Carl Landry
6-8 PF from Purdue
9.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.6 apg in 21.3 minutes
Brian Cook
6-9 PF from Illinois
3.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 apg in 6.9 minutes
Tracy McGrady
6-8 SG / SF from Mount Zion Christian Academy (HS)
15.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.0 apg in 33.8 minutes

If we then went on to re-sign Artest and Wafer, we would be looking at (including minutes):

PG: Paul (38), Lowry (10)
SG: Artest (34), Wafer (10)
SF: Battier (34), Peja (24)
PF: Scola (34), Hayes (6)
C: Yao (30), Chandler (20)

Looking at the free agent market, here are some people we could add for possibly little money to round out the roster (and I am sure Morey and Adelman would have more interesting and more promising young players to add up their sleeves):

Brevin Knight
Kevin Ollie
Steve Novak
Ryan Bowen
Joe Smith
Antonio McDyess
Raef LaFrentz

 

Real great stars only. Not Iverson type star.

Great starts win games for you.

 

I know we're giving too much financially but that's easy to settle.

Well Les' mind is business, mine is championship. I understand Yao is money-cow. That's his major value to this team because Yao is only dominant when playing with other centers. He always struggles when matched up with quick forwards. He'll be effective in just one game per series. The rest of the games, he's just a decoy.

 

Yea, but arent you the same one who said Nash would solve all our problems. My personal beleif is you put to much emphasis on the name and reputation and undervalue contracts and the importance of perfect role players.

 

If Yao gets two man on him without the ball, he's a great decoy to help team win. Tha's very effective if you ask me. Nobody else gets treated like that, it should tell you something.

If Yao is only being used to set screens, then that's a bad decoy.

 

NOR's PF position will be overloaded with West, Scola, and Landry. One of these three has to play C quite a bit. Not sure it's an ideal situation for the Hornets. Hopefully Morey can save us one PF (preferably Scola) and create a win-win situation for both parties.

 

I'm not saying it will happen or that the people who wouldn't want it is dumb, but when u can get elite talent for solid rotation players you do it. Paul is a elite player in this league regardless of position. You would probably find more gm's that would take paul over every player in this league other than kobe and lebron regardless of position. Getting paul itself is enough to take peja and posey. Posey can do everything shane can do and some, plus he's a tougher player. Peja is still a good shooter, not the players he once was, but he can be moved later in a separate deal. Chandler is the high energy, long athletic guy to rebound and block shots. He's not the shooter or scorer of landry or scola, but he's a better rebounder, shot blocker, defender and finisher.

I doubt it would happen, but just having paul,posey and chandler is enough to make it a really good trade. Elite talent is what wins in the nba.

 

Not at all.

Makes no mistake, Nash is a great star. He makes teammates better, he's a great closer, he's so efficient, he wins games for you.

Of course I consider other factors too. Did you see my post in that thread?

I won't trade AB+ Landry +Scola for Nash, but AB + Tmac I will.

For Paul, I'll do it with AB+ Landry + Scola. a line up of CP3/Artest/Battier/Hayes/Yao is much better than the lineup of Alston/Tmac/Battier/Hayes/Yao, and we did very well with that lineup before.

 

Yes, you make the trade. Remember, Morey's specialty is finding high-value low-cost role players, so replacing those guys wouldn't be impossible. It all depends on what sort of progress we see Brooks make next season.

 

Battier for Posey is redundant, James just has a longer contract. Battier is only valuable for a contender and if NO made this trade they would not need him. Trading Battier is almost a deal breaker but for Paul I would consider it heavily. Losing Scola is the dealbreaker. That essentially leaves us with nothing at the PF spot and NO already has an allstar PF.

 

I understand what you are saying, but right now, Battier is what makes this deal happen, since he's now "the Kobe stopper" at his peak value, and you have to give up talent to get talent, even in these economic circumstances. This is a once in a decade opportunity for a top 5 talent, and we'd be foolish to over value our talent in negotiations, which kills the best deals. This would make us contenders for the next 10 years, with Morey's GM skills.

If they would value Cook for financial purposes, maybe we could get one of Battier, Scola or Landry back, which would make this less painful, and I'm sure Morey would work every angle to keep all the talent we can, especially the core you mention, and of course, we aren't talking an actual offer here, but just someone's suggestion, but in my opinion, you do whatever it takes to get Paul, if its possible.

 

Someone just need know that fact that the rockets gave up seven (I am not sure the number) good players to just get a 30 plus year old Barkley, who was already fat, and slow during that time. Now we are talking a young superstar who can take over the team after the fragile Yao retires, how many years can Yao play? nobody knows. If you get CP3, you are going to be a winner.

 

CD was the GM back then. He made big deals. So far Morey's only big deal has been Artest and that came cheap.

 

I swear the majority of the people on this BBS are bi-polar. If I had a nickel for everytime somebody on this board asked or complained "When are we going to get a true/star pg?" I'd be a billionaire. We're not discussing a true/star pg though we're talking about CP3. A bona-fide superstar who's the best PG in the game and has an opportunity to go down as the greatest since Magic Johnson.

It's mind boggling that some of you guys have the audacity to say you don't want him because you'd rather keep Battier, Scola, Landry and Brooks?! LOL talk about being stingy with your own players. This is the perfect opportunity to SELL HIGH on these guys. These guys all played out of their minds these playoffs and their value is higher than ever.

Brooks- Still inconsistent. Not sure if he's truly going to cut it as a starting PG.

Battier- His value is higher than ever and it would suck to lose him but getting CP3 would make us forget him. I'd try and ask for Posey to be included in the deal in return.

Scola- He's obviously the meat of this deal for NO. Losing him would be very painful but we can always find another serviceable 4.

Landry- Good young player but players that fill his role are a dime a dozen in this league now.

Tmac- Dead to us a long time ago.

This proposed deal reminds me a bit of the Barkley trade from back in 1996. Only bigger. A LOT BIGGER. We had 2 young budding players in Cassell and Horry which we hated to lose but when you have a SUPERSTAR in exchange for role-players you take that deal 100% of the time. This time it's CP3 who's about to reach his prime or is currently in the prime at age 24 and when we got Barkley he was already headed towards decline. It may seem like a lot to give up but really. It really isn't.

 

What are you going to do with CP3 if you don't have a strong finisher?

 

How strong do you consider as "strong finisher"? A career 55% guy in Chander, a career 52% guy in Yao, or a career 40% 3pt shooter in Peja?

Not to mention a 47% guy CP3 by himself?

 

Given the fact that we don't have a pick this year and no other assets, I simply don't see how Morey could restock our bench after the Simmons trade. Chuck Hayes would become the only serviceable big man off the bench and we'd lose the two "heart" guys (Battier and Scola). That's just too much for too little - we'd become the Yao and Paul show and that seems like just as hopeless a lineup as the Tmac-Yao teams. I like Chandler and Paul, but both Posey and Peja are old and washed up.

And anyone who thinks Posey is as good as a defender (let alone better) is crazy. He's slightly more athletic and a better rebounder, but he's not going to disrupt other teams' offense the way Battier does.