1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[WSJ] Nuggets Win With Instinct, Rather Than Spreadsheets

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, May 19, 2009.

  1. goodbug

    goodbug Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    2,863
    Likes Received:
    32
    Regular season matters, had Rox won one more game, they'd be in Nuggets position right now.

     
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    From last year to this year, to you think the improvement has been more on the offensive end or defensive end?
     
  3. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2000
    Messages:
    21,946
    Likes Received:
    6,696
    Without yao, the rockets would most likely would have been out especially against the rocket killer.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    There's no way to predict that Yao would have been injured under different circumstances. Maybe Deke is still playing as well.

    I'd have liked our chances of getting to the WCF much better as a second seed.
     
  5. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 1999
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    32
    Honestly -- offensive. It doesn't show as much in the numbers, but the team actually has a plan on offense now. Last year it was let AI or Melo go iso. This year there's actually a system. I think the team is TRYING harder on defense, but honestly I think their offensive improvement has been more important.
     
  6. pmac

    pmac Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    8,414
    Likes Received:
    3,297
    I agree. It seems like the spacing is much better.

    Do you think the improvement was all because of Billups or does a healthy Nene have a huge impact as well?
     
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    It does show up in the numbers, if you look in the right places. :)

    According to basketball-reference, the Nuggets were 11th and 10th in defense, respecitvely. This year, they're 7th and 8th.

    The Rockets GM has said that in order to be a legit championship contender, you generally need to be top 10 in both categories. Most of us were down on the Nuggets last year, but despite them being a very frustrating team they were pretty balanced from an offense/defense perspective (contrary to popular thought). Maybe them becoming a real contender this season should have been more expected.
     
  8. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 1999
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    32
    I think it's everything. I don't understand why he plays Kleiza, and I'm ready to kill him for playing AC in crunch time last night, but Karl has done a TREMENDOUS job with the team this year. It starts there.

    Melo went to the Olympics and saw how hard everyone worked. He realized he needed to get his ass in gear. He took it to a new level.

    Nene came back and gave us a legit low post presence (well, 75% of the time at least). That helped.

    The Billups trade just put the final touches on it. As great as it is seeing Chauncey get most of the credit (Go CU!), this truly was a whole team effort.

    For some reason I thought our offense was higher last year. I was too lazy to look up the numbers. As for last year being balanced, that's true when you consider the entire season. However, if you look at the season in parts last year you'll see that our defense was phenomenal to start the season and then just got worse over time. This year, it's just been consistent. Honestly, I'm still not convinced that the Nugs will be back in this position next year. Portland's getting better. Oklahoma City is getting better. You guys should be able to take a step forward as well. We're going to have to fight to keep the top 4 seed we had this year. I kind of think this is a flash in the pan thing, but as someone who can still vividly remember the year the Broncos won more games than the Nuggets (thank you to Corey Alexander for helping us avoid the worst record in NBA history by the way), I just don't want it to end.
     
  9. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    22,899
    Likes Received:
    12,706
    I don't think anyone that was voted MVP of the league can be considered a second tier star. Ray Allen for many years (before Wade) was considered the third best SG behind Kobe and Tmac. Pierce is the considered the best of the second tier small fowards.

    The only question last year was depth outside the big 3 but the found the answer for that in Rondo and Big Baby.
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    From the APBRmetrics board, Dean Oliver (the Nuggets "stats guy") posted the following:

    "I just got a chance to see that article.

    Of course we use stats! (and spreadsheets) Good business uses both instinct and analysis. Our owner has done business for a long time and been quite successful using both hard analysis and instinct. I certainly spend a lot of time translating numbers to words -- so maybe it sometimes looks like mostly instinct. Did we know "it was going to turn out this way"? No, but we were doing things that analytically and instinctively were toward the goal of having it "turn out this way." The point is to have an organization that, through its resources -- analysis and instinct -- goes the right direction on a consistent basis. Is there some six-shooter in that? I think we'd all agree to that. (And we'd all be mystified as to what Six Sigma is.)"
     
  11. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2001
    Messages:
    16,683
    Likes Received:
    2,873

    HAHAHA!

    The Nuggets are the WORST DEFENSIVE TEAM EVAR!!!!!!!!l eleventy one!!!!11!!1!!!!




    :D
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. roslolian

    roslolian Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    30,140
    Likes Received:
    20,339
    Lol, I guess either the owner doesn't know what he's talking about or the writer of that article put some spin on his words to make an article.

    If you want to talk about a team that's really anti-Rox in terms of philosophy what about the Lakers? I remember reading somewhere that they're one of the few teams with no stat guys, because PJ doesn't believe in them.
     
  13. MattM

    MattM Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2003
    Messages:
    646
    Likes Received:
    24
  14. Nuggets4

    Nuggets4 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 1999
    Messages:
    2,928
    Likes Received:
    32
    Dean Oliver was one of the first "stat guys" hired by a front office. The Nugs have been using stats for a long time. Unfortunately, and I could be completely wrong about this, I think they use it more as a secondary thing instead of a primary one. Honestly, I'm a big believer in the statheads leading the way which is why I, for one, welcome our future Houston Rocket overlords.
     
  15. gifford1967

    gifford1967 Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2003
    Messages:
    8,308
    Likes Received:
    4,655
    Without a stats-focused front office the Rockets would never have been able to make it to the 7th game of the second round, missing their two star players.

    Could any other NBA team gone as far without their two highest paid players?
     

Share This Page