Morey is a probability guy. He weighs the probability of positive return against the probability of negative impact. He will take higher risk if the probability of reward is higher. I think he also likes some safety valve mechanisms in case disaster happens. Artest was high risk. But he has high reward potential. Also, the short contract was the safety valve. Ironic as it is, Artest's acquisition was also a safety valve in itself for the case of injuries to McGrady and Yao. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you see it), disaster did happen and the valve was put to use.
I thought you'd ask that, and no I don't have anyone in mind. It's purely hypothetical, but you have to believe Morey had a Plan B for a player to get with Jackson's expiring contract, perhaps even package it with one of our role players. And who knows what impact that player would've had? As for the value of low first round picks, let's not forget that it means we're giving away players who can turn out to be the next Brooks, Lowry or Landry. Maybe someone to finally fill the backup PF/C position. I'm in complete agreement there was no one we could've gotten at that point who'd have come close to Artest's caliber and potential, which was why the deal was worth whatever risk Morey took. I'm just disputing the "low risk" part.
What about TMac for Reed and Gadzuric? We will get a legit shooter and back-up center that can give Yao 15 mins of rest... Both players have 2 years left remaining... Just an opinion... Reed will fit to RA's system because he is good shooter and slicer. Just an opinion
Since we are into strange trades, I was wondering if this trade would be worthwhile or even possible: sign and trade Artest to Atlanta for a signed and traded Zaza Pachulia and the rights to Josh Childress once they made the mandatory tender offer to keep his rights. Childress is rumored to want to come home, and he would be a solid G-SF for the Rockets. Pachulia obviously could play quality minutes as back up center to keep Yao rested. On the other hand, Artest would give the Hawks defense, toughness and scoring ability. If that many sign and trades is legal under NBA rules, this IMO would work well for both teams. Thoughts?
It'll be kinda ironic if we do land RJ only because we already had him in the draft and traded for Eddie Griffin and a bunch of our draft picks to them. What a bonehead move...
so far we've built on the low risk take. while low risk is something DM will look for, there are some other things he pays attention to. 1. low risk - OP's point, self explanatory 2. high reward - i mentioned this on page 2. if the reward is higher, DM is willing to risk a bit more. 3. value per $ - SamFisher's point. after all DM is 'money ball.'
It really all boils into the 3rd category, though I'd call it value per asset. As others have pointed out, it's probabilistic. With a guy like Artest, you look at the chance he behaves vs. the chance he goes off the deep end, and the resulting outcomes. The fact that he was on a 1 year deal helped mitigate the potential negative outcomes, and helped make it worth it. With a guy like Von Wafer, he had low downside risk -- if he had pulled the playoff stunt earlier in the year, he probably gets cut, and it wouldn't have mattered. Morey and staffed recognized a higher potential upside/likelihood of reaching potential for Von relative to Strawberry, and thus Von got a roster spot. It's not that Morey doesn't take risks, or he takes low risks, he takes calculated risks -- not making a move that could easily blow up or handcuff the franchise for multiple years (eg, taking on a Zach Randolph) because there's always another deal to make the next year if you have the flexibility to do so. That's the magic of what Morey's done -- he's landed talented players (Brooks, Landry, Scola, Artest) without really giving much up either in terms of assets or future flexibility. Those four guys essentially cost 3 late first rounders (1 to pick Brooks, 2 for Artest), and 3 late 2nd rounders (Spanoulis and future 2nd for Scola, 1 for Landry) plus Juwan Howard (traded for Mike James traded for Bobby Jackson traded for Artest).
Thank you for once someone agrees with me that trading McGrady now makes no sense when he is due to come off the books next year. You would be stupid to trade him and get pretty much no equal value and stuck with more contracts you probably don't want.
I don't think that's how it works. The idea of essentially "trading" a free agent doesn't sound feasible at all. Besides, we're talking about S&T'ing three different players into one deal here. This doesn't add up.
