Paraphrasing CD once said that the good point guards are either drafted or traded for and very rarely gotten through free agency.
Nice post and mostly good thread. The simplified version that appeared late in the thread, roughly: "The Rockets are so far over the cap now that even after T-Macs contract comes off, all that will do is get them $3M-$5M under the cap..." is the easiest way to phrase it. I did have one quibble. I would not be surprised if Ron-Ron could be resigned for something only a bit over the MLE. I certainly think he's played well enough to have earned a good contract, but in the modern NBA economic situation, I don't see many teams who are both able (few) and willing (fewer) to offer him much over the MLE. Most teams are capped, waiting for the 2010 FA bonanza, or suffering economically. Who's left to offer a good, but not All Star good, player several million over the MLE? Not that the extra $1M-$2M in cap space would change the fundamental situation regarding the Rockets inability to get involved in the 2010 FA fun. More likely, Morey will make his moves by helping other teams get in position for a big signing. For some team that's not as far over the cap as the Rockets, unloading good players for T-Mac's expiring contract might be just what they need to position themselves to make a run at LeBron, Kobe, D-Wade, etc.
honestly our best case scenario is the fairy lane one where Yao never gets injured We resign Artest for what he is on now Tracy Mcgrady comes back with a vengence
Recall how Juwan Howard signed a $105 million contract with the Washington Bullets in 1996? That's something even Yao Ming (who signed a $75 million max deal in 2005) couldn't get from the Rockets. I am confident that the impact of the global financial meltdown, the structure of the NBA economy, and outrageous player salaries are going to re-write the rules and the market for player contracts in 2010. The league is in such dire straits, they sent around a memo to teams before the trading deadline letting them know the estimate for next year's salary cap so teams could use this information as they plotted strategy. And what happened at the trading deadline? Just a bunch of phone calls about Raef Lafrentz's expiring contract. It is such a bad situation right now with teams losing money that some of the crazy steps that were suggested to enable the Rockets to clear cap space to sign a max free agent will probably be taken by several teams just to stay viable. And while the Rockets aren't immune to these problems, they are probably relatively better off than other teams because Daryl Morey is in charge and a guy named Yao Ming is on the roster. Morey has already used a moneyball paradigm to shape the roster with a bunch of high value guys who contribute to winning at a greater rate than other people who are paid comparably. I'd take the Rockets bench over the Lakers bench any day. Also, because these guys don't make a whole lot, it won't be as insulting to them when the Rockets can't offer them a substantial raise on their next contract. But the upshot here is that I like the Rockets paradigm of "high value players" v. the Lakers paradigm of "overpaid superstars". Our approach is certainly better adapted to the economic realities facing the NBA. Because the NBA is suffering and teams will not be able to offer the kind of mega salaries that they have in the past, there will be a greater emphasis on alternative revenue streams. That's why it's so great to have Yao Ming on the Rockets. With Yao, the Rockets have become China's adopted team. Could you imagine Chuck Hayes or Luis Scola or Shane Battier getting shoe contracts if they played for anyone else? Even Ron Artest signed up a China deal. Similarly, I really believe that Lebron will go to the Knicks because no NBA team will be able to pay him his true "value" but he will be able to get bigger endorsements when he's in a market like New York. So this is basically a long way of saying that while it's probably true that the Rockets won't be able to sign a mega free agent in 2010, I think all teams will be priced out of the market given the economic difficulties facing the NBA and what is considered an appropriate salary for a mega star and a complementary player and a scrub will change dramatically.
hmmm... if the salary cap really does decrease to 57 million, then none of the contenders can be a player in the 2010 free agency except for sign and trades, which is not the same thing. having said that... if Tracy really gets healthy next season, and Yao too (truly big ifs), and Scola, Brooks, Lowry, Landry and Wafer all work on improving their games, than the Rockets don't really have any weakness at any position except for a relative lack of size at the point, and a true backup for Yao. their loaded at the wing position and their PF committee, though not perfect is quite solid. the Lakers who were seen as so deep and talented are really overrated. it's just Kobe and Gasol really. all of those other guys (Odom, Bynum, Walton, Ariza, Fisher, Farmer, Vujacic) are nothing special. Cleveland is just the Lebron show; he's making Mo Williams look like a freaking all-star. Illgauskas can't play big minutes and is just above average center, Verajao and Delonte West are pretty average, if that. their bench is even less remarkable. Lebron has them really overachieving. Boston and San Antonio aren't getting any younger, and are further past the tax threshold than Houston, which leaves Denver, Portland and Utah. only Portland has the potential to get scary good, but that Darius Miles debacle likely prevents that. Chicago could possibly get there too as only Gordon and Hinrich have relatively big contracts.
Great post by BimaThug. But I remember DocRocket posted that TMac will NEVER in Rockets uni again and he told us to get over it. So perhaps we needs to give up 1 or 2 of our role players for a scorer, or we don't resign Artest after all.
Mid-Level Exception, offered to every team annually by the NBA so that they can remain competitive in the free agent market even though they may be over the salary cap, usually around $5.5 M per season. Owners are still responsible for any luxury taxes that may occur as a result of this contract however...
Just wanted to say great thread, Bima. One of my favorite posters. That being said, the thought of Joe Johnson on this team still (and always will) makes me all tingly inside...
i like prince very much after he defend tmac in magic. but now he will be 30 next year and have back problem. his defense is not the same as several year ago...
A few thoughts/suggestions: -Its time for Les to bite the bullet and dip into the tax. The Rockets, with Yao's marketing, are a very profitable team and its time to invest that money back in the team, atleast for 3-4 years and make a legitimate run at a title. Our coaching, bench, competition are all in ideal spots to make a run at the top. Our owner needs to commit! -The assembly of role players here is quite frankly the best in the league and all they really need is leadership and star power. The priority should be to keep the core intact. When I say core I mean all the guys still playing, the "pitbulls". FFS our role players just blew out the "best" team in the league and there is something to be said for that. -Personally, I don't care if it is Yao/McGrady or another duo, but we need a closer. Trade Yao, Trade T-mac, I dont care, but we need some consistent star power. We need two way players who commit to offense and defense, as well as make big shots. If we keep Yao, we absolutely have to get a legit backup big man. He just can't play more than 30 minutes a night. -If we signed Artest to a long term deal could it be creatively structured to give us long term flexibility? Like could we sign him to a 3 year 30 million dollar deal paying 15 in year one and 7.5 in two and three? I seem to recall Jordan getting some weird contracts like that back in the day. If so, could this be used to help free space for 2010? I never really assumed we would let McGrady expire, I always thought Morey would do one of the following: -package him with one of the studs/pick (probably Brooks or Landry) and then ship him off for a guy like Bosh, who is likely to leave Toronto high and dry with nothing in return. This way Toronto, in this example, would get a promising young replacement instead of nothing at the end of next season. Sure Bosh might bolt at the end of the year, but we atleast get a shot at one year of greatness or even an opportunity to show Bosh how great it is to play in Houston. or -offer a financially screwed team (Indiana, New Orleans, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Washington) a get out of jail free card. Take a good player and a bad contract so the other team can effectively start over. Hopefully, teams are ALOT worse off than it appears and will be desperate to save money. Maybe something like Kaman/Camby or McGrady. Camby/McGrady expires and we finally have a legitimate backup big in Kaman, meanwhile the Clippers get out of long term financial distress. I might even Consider Arenas/Butler, but that is so dangerous in the long run, I dont know.
Part of the "depressed with Yao's injury" in me wish perhaps the team would just simply start rebuilding next season. That is, don't resign Ron. Trade Yao for expirings + young players. And hope for a high pick + Wade or Lebron in 2010. Not that there's any chance in hell it will happen though.
I still think we could do something with Tmac's contract in order to bring back a quality player. This is great thread, but too one-dimenional, where we didn't consider other factors when speaking of signing up FAs or getting a quality player. Don't forget other teams in the league are also facing the same situation. Tmac's expiring contract is going to draw some big attentions nearby the trade deadline. Our team without Yao now and Tmac still made it thru the first round and beat lakers in Game 4 will sure draw alot of attentions around the league. Everybody would want to play with us. I truely believed that we had a taker for Tmac during this past trading deadline, or else Tmac wouldn't all of sudden out of nowhere pulled up this season ending surgery crap out. Our GM and coach didn't find out about it until media release? The rehab is about one year from the date of surgery performed? Too many coincidences. I believed that Morey will be able to do something for us. Lebron james? probably not. DWade? maybe, if he is happy with the heat. One thing will stand out after this season's over. We need a clutch closer.
You don't know and don't tell me i don't know since i am Kings fan and watch enough Kings game to know what kind of player Bibby is. Bobby is not just a great defender, he shoots just as good as Bibby.
If we don't resign Ron, trade/expire tmac's contract, trade yao's contract, i don't think players like Wade would want to come to Houston. He's already the focal point of his team, why would he come to a rebuilding team in Houston?
