I think so too. I don't think it is inconceivable that the Rockets will lose one of the games at home. It's very possible unless the Rockets play flawless, and of course this means giving back the HCA. I think every home game at this point is a must-win.
Includes Lakers loss (2-1) to the Jazz, Celtics (2-1) win over Bulls and Spurs (1-2) loss to the Mavs. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 87.0 0.0 40.4 26.3 20.3 7.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 Jazz Blazers 53.8 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 20.9 11.3 0.0 46.2 Rockets Nuggets 85.9 21.2 32.2 16.7 15.8 8.6 5.5 0.0 0.0 14.1 Hornets Spurs 39.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 25.5 14.0 27.8 19.3 0.0 61.0 Mavericks Cavaliers 98.2 46.0 35.8 11.1 5.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 Pistons Hawks 53.6 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 21.0 11.4 0.0 46.4 Heat Celtics 92.9 0.0 50.1 26.8 16.0 4.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 Bulls Magic 79.4 0.0 27.6 27.2 24.6 7.6 9.3 3.7 0.0 20.6 76ers Enjoy!
Includes the Rockets' (2-1) win over the Blazers, the Magic (1-2) loss to the Sixers and the Cavs' (3-0) win over the Pistons. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 87.0 0.0 40.4 26.3 20.3 7.6 5.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 Jazz Blazers 36.9 0.0 0.0 12.5 24.4 14.1 28.6 20.4 0.0 63.1 Rockets Nuggets 85.9 21.2 32.2 16.7 15.8 8.6 5.5 0.0 0.0 14.1 Hornets Spurs 39.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 25.5 14.0 27.8 19.3 0.0 61.0 Mavericks Cavaliers 99.7 67.8 26.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Pistons Hawks 53.6 0.0 12.5 17.1 24.1 14.0 21.0 11.4 0.0 46.4 Heat Celtics 92.9 0.0 50.1 26.8 16.0 4.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 Bulls Magic 62.2 0.0 0.0 27.6 34.5 10.6 17.8 9.4 0.0 37.8 76ers Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 87.0 62.6 49.6 23.0 Jazz 13.0 4.6 2.1 0.4 Blazers 36.9 13.8 8.9 2.7 Rockets 63.1 19.0 10.4 2.5 Nuggets 85.9 49.6 15.7 3.3 Hornets 14.1 5.7 1.2 0.2 Spurs 39.0 20.1 6.6 1.5 Mavericks 61.0 24.7 5.6 0.9 Cavaliers 99.7 90.5 59.3 42.4 Pistons 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Hawks 53.6 5.8 1.1 0.3 Heat 46.4 3.5 0.5 0.1 Celtics 92.9 65.1 27.7 16.9 Bulls 7.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 Magic 62.2 28.0 10.6 6.0 76ers 37.8 5.1 0.5 0.1 The Rockets pulled out a tough win and have given themselves a good chance to win the series. I've added the probability of advancing to the next rounds and winning the title. Enjoy!
i find it interesting that the magic still have a 62% chance of advancing despite being down 2-1 in the series without home court advantage. of course both of the magic losses come against last second shots, but still
Updated with the Lakers (3-1) win over the Jazz, the Nuggets (2-1) loss to the Hornets, the Spurs (1-3) loss to the Mavs, and the Hawks (1-2) loss to the Heat. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 96.7 0.0 72.8 15.1 8.8 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 Jazz Blazers 36.9 0.0 0.0 12.5 24.4 14.1 28.6 20.4 0.0 63.1 Rockets Nuggets 76.9 0.0 29.8 23.5 23.6 12.8 10.3 0.0 0.0 23.1 Hornets Spurs 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 10.5 35.0 35.5 0.0 81.0 Mavericks Cavaliers 99.7 67.8 26.4 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Pistons Hawks 36.8 0.0 0.0 12.5 24.3 14.1 28.6 20.5 0.0 63.2 Heat Celtics 92.9 0.0 50.1 26.8 16.0 4.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 Bulls Magic 62.2 0.0 0.0 27.6 34.5 10.6 17.8 9.4 0.0 37.8 76ers Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 96.7 69.6 55.9 25.9 Jazz 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 Blazers 36.9 12.5 8.2 2.5 Rockets 63.1 16.7 9.6 2.3 Nuggets 76.9 46.1 13.7 2.9 Hornets 23.1 9.7 1.9 0.3 Spurs 19.0 10.1 3.1 0.7 Mavericks 81.0 34.0 7.1 1.1 Cavaliers 99.7 91.1 59.6 41.9 Pistons 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Hawks 36.8 4.0 0.8 0.2 Heat 63.2 4.8 0.7 0.1 Celtics 92.9 65.1 27.6 16.3 Bulls 7.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 Magic 62.2 28.0 10.6 5.7 76ers 37.8 5.1 0.5 0.1 Enjoy!
What a heart pounding win! Here are the results after the Rockets have gone up 3-1 (plus other results). Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 96.7 0.0 72.8 15.1 8.8 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 Jazz Blazers 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 10.3 35.2 36.7 0.0 82.2 Rockets Nuggets 76.9 0.0 29.8 23.5 23.6 12.8 10.3 0.0 0.0 23.1 Hornets Spurs 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 10.5 35.0 35.5 0.0 81.0 Mavericks Hawks 36.8 0.0 0.0 12.5 24.3 14.1 28.6 20.5 0.0 63.2 Heat Celtics 83.4 0.0 0.0 50.1 33.3 8.9 7.7 0.0 0.0 16.6 Bulls Magic 80.1 0.0 0.0 46.0 34.1 10.5 9.4 0.0 0.0 19.9 76ers Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 96.7 70.9 56.9 26.4 Jazz 3.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 Blazers 17.8 6.0 4.0 1.2 Rockets 82.2 21.8 12.5 3.0 Nuggets 76.9 46.1 13.7 2.9 Hornets 23.1 9.7 1.9 0.3 Spurs 19.0 10.1 3.2 0.7 Mavericks 81.0 34.0 7.2 1.1 Cavaliers 100.0 91.4 60.3 42.4 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 36.8 3.9 0.8 0.2 Heat 63.2 4.7 0.7 0.1 Celtics 83.4 53.8 22.7 13.4 Bulls 16.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 Magic 80.1 39.6 14.9 8.1 76ers 19.9 3.6 0.4 0.1 Enjoy!
Includes the Lakers (4-1) win over Utah, the Nuggets crush (3-1) of the Hornets, and the Hawks win (2-2) over the Heat. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Blazers 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.8 10.3 35.2 36.7 0.0 82.2 Rockets Nuggets 93.3 0.0 64.7 16.2 12.3 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 Hornets Spurs 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0 10.5 35.0 35.5 0.0 81.0 Mavericks Hawks 60.6 0.0 0.0 28.1 32.6 18.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 39.4 Heat Celtics 83.4 0.0 0.0 50.1 33.3 8.9 7.7 0.0 0.0 16.6 Bulls Magic 80.1 0.0 0.0 46.0 34.1 10.5 9.4 0.0 0.0 19.9 76ers Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 73.4 58.4 27.2 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 17.8 5.8 3.8 1.1 Rockets 82.2 20.8 11.6 2.8 Nuggets 93.3 55.9 16.3 3.4 Hornets 6.7 2.8 0.5 0.1 Spurs 19.0 9.6 2.9 0.7 Mavericks 81.0 31.7 6.5 1.0 Cavaliers 100.0 90.6 59.8 41.8 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 60.6 6.5 1.3 0.3 Heat 39.4 2.9 0.4 0.1 Celtics 83.4 53.8 22.9 13.4 Bulls 16.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 Magic 80.1 39.6 15.0 8.1 76ers 19.9 3.6 0.4 0.1 Enjoy!
Includes the Rockets' disappointing loss tonight. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Blazers 28.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.1 16.3 55.6 0.0 0.0 71.9 Rockets Nuggets 93.3 0.0 64.7 16.2 12.3 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 Hornets Hawks 60.6 0.0 0.0 28.1 32.6 18.9 20.5 0.0 0.0 39.4 Heat Celtics 92.3 0.0 0.0 63.4 28.8 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 Bulls Magic 90.6 0.0 0.0 60.1 30.5 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 76ers Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 72.6 58.2 27.1 Jazz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Blazers 28.1 9.2 6.0 1.8 Rockets 71.9 18.2 10.4 2.5 Nuggets 93.3 57.9 16.8 3.5 Hornets 6.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 Spurs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mavericks 100.0 39.1 8.0 1.2 Cavaliers 100.0 90.6 58.7 41.0 Pistons 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hawks 60.6 6.5 1.1 0.3 Heat 39.4 2.9 0.4 0.1 Celtics 92.3 56.5 24.0 14.1 Bulls 7.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 Magic 90.6 41.1 15.5 8.4 76ers 9.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
Sadly the Rockets are the only team where 70% really isn't good enough to be confident about advancement to the second round.
That was a great win by the Rockets! I am so happy that the first round monkey is off of Yao and the Rockets. What a great effort! Not surprisingly, my simulator gives the Rockets about a 1 in 4 chance of knocking off the Lakers. Let's see how this one plays out. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Hawks 79.5 0.0 0.0 44.4 35.2 20.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.5 Heat Celtics 78.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.9 21.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.1 Bulls Lakers 74.7 12.7 24.5 18.1 19.3 8.5 10.2 4.5 2.2 25.3 Rockets Nuggets 62.1 8.1 18.6 15.5 19.9 11.4 14.9 7.5 4.1 37.9 Mavericks Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 74.7 59.7 27.9 Rockets 100.0 25.3 14.3 3.4 Nuggets 100.0 62.1 18.2 3.8 Mavericks 100.0 37.9 7.9 1.2 Cavaliers 100.0 90.0 58.7 41.1 Hawks 79.5 8.5 1.5 0.4 Heat 20.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 Celtics 78.9 46.0 19.7 11.5 Bulls 21.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 Magic 100.0 51.6 19.6 10.6 Enjoy!
Here is what the simulator thinks about the second round. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 74.7 12.7 24.5 18.1 19.3 8.5 10.2 4.5 2.2 25.3 Rockets Nuggets 62.1 8.1 18.6 15.5 19.9 11.4 14.9 7.5 4.1 37.9 Mavericks Cavaliers 89.3 23.6 32.7 18.7 14.4 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.7 10.7 Hawks Celtics 58.2 7.0 16.9 14.6 19.6 12.1 16.3 8.6 4.8 41.8 Magic Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 74.7 59.7 27.9 Rockets 100.0 25.3 14.3 3.4 Nuggets 100.0 62.1 18.2 3.8 Mavericks 100.0 37.9 7.9 1.2 Cavaliers 100.0 89.3 57.2 40.0 Hawks 100.0 10.7 1.8 0.4 Celtics 100.0 58.2 25.1 14.7 Magic 100.0 41.8 16.0 8.6
Updated after our gritty win in LA. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 55.3 0.0 12.7 18.1 24.4 10.7 17.0 9.7 7.2 44.7 Rockets Nuggets 73.5 12.7 24.6 17.0 19.2 11.0 11.4 4.1 0.0 26.5 Mavericks Cavaliers 89.3 23.6 32.7 18.7 14.4 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.7 10.7 Hawks Celtics 38.6 0.0 7.0 11.8 19.8 12.2 21.9 14.8 12.4 61.4 Magic Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 55.3 43.8 20.6 Rockets 100.0 44.7 24.4 5.9 Nuggets 100.0 73.5 25.3 5.4 Mavericks 100.0 26.5 6.5 1.0 Cavaliers 100.0 89.3 58.0 42.5 Hawks 100.0 10.7 1.8 0.5 Celtics 100.0 38.6 16.6 10.5 Magic 100.0 61.4 23.5 13.7 Enjoy!
Updated with the Cavs (1-0) win and the Nuggets (2-0) win. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 55.3 0.0 12.7 18.1 24.4 10.7 17.0 9.7 7.2 44.7 Rockets Nuggets 84.5 20.0 31.4 16.7 16.3 9.3 6.1 0.0 0.0 15.5 Mavericks Cavaliers 93.4 30.2 35.3 16.6 11.4 3.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.6 Hawks Celtics 38.6 0.0 7.0 11.8 19.8 12.2 21.9 14.8 12.4 61.4 Magic Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 55.3 43.4 20.1 Rockets 100.0 44.7 23.7 5.6 Nuggets 100.0 84.5 29.1 6.0 Mavericks 100.0 15.5 3.8 0.6 Cavaliers 100.0 93.4 60.7 44.4 Hawks 100.0 6.6 1.1 0.3 Celtics 100.0 38.6 15.9 10.0 Magic 100.0 61.4 22.3 13.0 Enjoy!
Includes the Rockets' loss (1-1) and the Celtics (1-1) win. Code: Home HWin H4 H5 H6 H7 A7 A6 A5 A4 AWin Away ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== Lakers 66.1 0.0 18.3 22.0 25.8 11.3 15.4 7.2 0.0 33.9 Rockets Nuggets 84.5 20.0 31.4 16.7 16.3 9.3 6.1 0.0 0.0 15.5 Mavericks Cavaliers 93.4 30.2 35.3 16.6 11.4 3.2 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.6 Hawks Celtics 50.9 0.0 11.4 16.0 23.5 14.5 22.2 12.4 0.0 49.1 Magic Playoff Advancement (Percent) Code: Team To 2nd To Conf To Fnls Champs ==== ======= ======= ======= ======= Lakers 100.0 66.1 51.9 24.0 Rockets 100.0 33.9 18.0 4.2 Nuggets 100.0 84.5 26.7 5.5 Mavericks 100.0 15.5 3.5 0.5 Cavaliers 100.0 93.4 60.1 42.9 Hawks 100.0 6.6 1.1 0.3 Celtics 100.0 50.9 20.9 12.7 Magic 100.0 49.1 17.9 10.0 Game 2 was quite pivotal, at least according to the simulator. If the Rockets had won, they would have been favored in the series. Now the Lakers are.
