I must say that the news from Doc that Ming is a done deal really shouldn't surprise us much. It was only a couple of years ago that Rudy shocked Rocketland by drafting Jason Collier. His overestimated value of Collier just shows how much Rudy loves tall guys who can shoot the basketball. If an unatheletic 6'11" guy can impress Rudy that much, just think how much he must be salivating about the opportunity to have what supposedly is an atheletic 7'5" china man that can shoot threes. I just hope he doesn't get camped at the three point line like Griffin has. I must add by skepticism of Ming. I just can't see this tall skiny guy ever amounting to much more than an average center, and if I am wrong, in a best case scenerio, it will take at least 4-5 years for him to make it big time. I just think the Rockets could do better by trading for a more established young player. However, I will continue to love the Rockets even when they have the 7'5" three point bomber spotting up for open j's.
A question - age every current NBA center 2 years and then tell me who you would rather have playing the 5 for the Rockets in two years. A 32 yo high-mileage Shaq at a cost of $29.5m? A 36 yo Divac? Pollard, Ostertag, Scott Padgett, Calvin Booth, a 35 yo Shawn Kemp, a 35 yo Dale Davis, Tsakilidis, Voskuhl, Dampier, Foyle, Nesterovic, Lorenzen Wright, Earvin Johnson, Pryzbilla, Ilgauskas, Mihm, Elden Campbell, Tony Battie, Potapenko, Todd MacCollouch, Camby, Mutombo (on crutches), Haywood? Steven Hunter (mfclark - want to trade even up?) Ratliffe - injury prone and in the WC? Nazr Mohammad? - solid, but not better than Ming in 2 years. Chandler? Curry? - they averaged 6 ppg in their rookie seasons. Want to bet Ming does better in his rookie season? Will Zo still be in the league in 2 years? Robinson's gone next year. Olowokandi? I'll pass... especially after he gets Maxed out. Keon? Too light to fight, to thin to win. Wallace - the only possibility...and he has no O. It will not take 4 to 5 years for the Rocks to reap the benefits of Ming. He will be a 12 ppg, 7 boards, 2 blks player this year. And that's enough IMHO.
Gater, you nailed it. We have to think about centers in the real world of centers. To be more fair there is one omission. Kelvin Cato after two more years of experience. I think Cato could be the best backup in the league or top trade bait by then.
What are our expectations from the #1 pick? For me it isn't just getting someone with 12ppg 7rbs and 2blks. Yes that is pretty good relative to the other centers of todays game (and its hardly a guarantee that this will happen), but with the #1 pick your goal has to be a franchise player. Its my opinion that Ming will never be a franchise player, and will at best be a slightly above average center. Thats not the results you want from a #1 pick. This is why I think drafting Yao is a mistake. The guy has never played against top notch competition and looks like an injury waiting to happen. There is no way you can put much stock in him ever amounting to >20ppg >10rbs and >2-3blks per game, and these are the results you want out of a #1 draft pick. At least trade the pick and get an established all-star caliber player.
Why does the #1 pick have to be a franchise player? Especially if you already have one (Stevie). What ever happened to draft what your needs are? Would a center who can average 20 pts 10+ rbs 2 blks be a needed player on this team...yes! With the kind of firepower we have from the backcourt, why do we have to have another Hakeem(which there are not any to take in this draft or any other for that matter ) when a quality BIG ( emphasis on big ) man will do? Ming is a perfect fit for this team. He can pass out of the double team down low and can step out and nail the shot to keep his defender honest. Look, rebounding at any level is more about heart and strength of will than physical talent...although talent can't hurt.. Ming obviously can board......paging Mr. Cato,are you listening? Ming is a Rocket unless a deal just knock our socks off. Now if we can pull off getting Odom and Ming...LOOK OUT!!!!
How many times did a #1 pick get a franchise player? Was last year's a "franchise player" Maybe in a few years, but not after 1 year. Was #1 the year before a future "franchise player"? According to the Rockets, Eddie G. was their #1 if they had the #1 pick. Is he a franchise player now? Will he be in 4 years? Maybe. For that matter, is Steve? Not yet but he might before one. This is a #1 the Rockets got this year and unfortunately, there are no sure things this year. Yet, the people who don't like Ming are sure he's a bust or an average NBA Player. This is all a guessing game on who will be a future franchise player. That label may or may not be in Ming's future. But at least he has a great chance. That's more than change then a lot of other players, that includes all the rookies in the draft and all the trade possiblities not names KG or Duncan. But never mind what Ming can be later. Ming is NOW a good player and will get better. He's tall and can shoot. He can also block. If not sure, ask Vince Carter. He brings a following of an entire nation, which just happens to have over 1 billion people. This is a move that puts the Rockets on the international map. You may not care what all this means but I'm sure it's not lost to the people in charge. In my opinion, short of some incredible trade that gets us a sure "franchise player", or a complete meltdown in talks with the Chinese, Ming is the thing. And no, Odom is not a franchsie player. And neither is Lewis. And trades that get a few "lower" picks only gets you more "unkowns".
Its unfair to expect any #1 pick to be Shaq or Tim Duncan. I looked back for fun to all the draft pick for the last 10 years and its 95% filled with players who never amounted to anything So your odds in the draft are low so why expect to get Shaq,Tim or a franchise player with #1.
Obviously not every #1 pick is going to result in a franchise player, but I would bet that this would be the goal of every team that has the opportunity to have th 1st pick in the draft. It is also true that neither Odom nor Lewis are franchise players, but I would definately put my money on Lamar Odom amounting to a hell of a lot more than Yao Ming. Also, many college players and European players have been facing top notch competition for their respective ages. I think it would be quite a stretch to say that the Chinese Basketball League is equal in competitiveness to the NCAA or the better European leagues.
Everyone seem to think that Ming only plays for the CBA. He's the best player on the Chinese National Team. He's been expose to top tier players from around the world. There is a lot of opinion as to how well he played. You can read that info yourself. It's safe to say he's not a superstar yet. But then man played the Dream Team when he was 20. Now he's all of 21. I believe he has a few years to improve. Now to bet money on Odom wouldn't be a bad idea except if he get's his third voilation on sustance abuse, then it's bye-bye time. He didn't do much for the Clippers and yet he's an automatic better player than Ming will ever be? Odom got skills but so does Ming.
12 ppg, 7 boards, 2 blks I believe Gater was referring to Ming's production in his first season. He wasn't saying that was going to be his production throughout his entire career. There's nobody in this draft who's going to be deemed a franchise player in his first season. Those numbers would be a pretty good start for Ming. By the way, nice post Gater.
