All the talk around Ming reminds me of how Sabonis was drafted, and finally landed, in Portland. NO question, the young Sabonis would have rocked in the NBA. Especially with the Portland team assembled in those years, an NBA title was really there to grab with such a young, witty and crafty center. But politics ruined those hopes early on. And Shaq's emergences and dominance ruined the last. Still, even diminished, Sabonis proved out a decent nba player and the best passing center there was, (he could shoot out threes too ,BTW). When he left, Portland lost the little cohesion and glue that was still on it's roster. By any standards, Sabonis silenced his critics, but did not provide the high hopes that were put in him at the time. It was not his fault... Comparing Ming to Sabonis is not that straight-forward off course. They both have their strength and weaknesses and have different physical abilities: Sabonis was stronger, probably smarter and a much better passer. Ming is taller, faster and more mobile. SAbonis, however had already gone against proven competition if you remember the last few games team USA lost on the international scene (David Robinson probably remembers). The Soviet championship was by far head and shoulders above it's current chinese counter-part... It would also need detailed political analysis to say that the political situation between the US and China is worse than the US/ USSR one back in the days. It is probably not the case, but at least as cloudy. One thing that does set Ming apart, is his contribution to his next nba team if everything falls on place. There is little doubt he would need three years of development to bring what it needs in the paint. Unless he ressembles more Pau Gasol than Wang ZhiZhi, which is probably not the case and even more so in a play-off bound team. The second Ming contribution relate directly to the marketing, advertising business part of the sport. This is probably the only certainty there is on Ming: Money and Spot-lights if he is just a good player. Les, how difficult is this to pass up? For Houston, and even more for Francis, waiting two long years for Ming and Griffin to develop into regular impact players is a long, long time shrouded in uncertainties. When you consider what this draft holds to improve Rockets weaknesses and what a first draft selection can bring in term of established NBA player, Ming is not necessarily the best option at short and medium term. Rocket's ball distribution, ball-handling and decision making could definitely improve with players like Mike Dunleavy and Jared Jeffries. Gooden would be an interesting and usefull Taylor insurance and remediance. Wright, Battier and Odom would also fit the Rockets quite well, knowing Williams and Willis may be on their way out. Because in the end: Two in the hand is better than one in the bush...
What you are saying is basically true but consider this. 1) Ming is 2" taller and only 7#'s lighter than Arvydas when he retired. Yao is likely to get much stronger, but there was an upper limit on how quick Sabonis would ever become. 2) You are heavily discounting the amount of improvement which a 19 year old Griffin can make in a summer. Let's at least wait until the RMR before saying he is 3 years away. 3) In RT's system, the veterans are higher on the depth chart. Both EG & Ming will (initially at least) be playing against other teams' second units. This means the quality of play doesn't drop off when Cato or MoT or KT goes to the bench. (Some would argue that EG and/or Yao would actually be an improvement when they come into the game for the aforementioned). 4) The Rockets were injury plagued last season and in the many games I saw had to play Steve and Cat far to many minutes. Players injure more easily when fatigued. An improved Griffin (some post up moves perhaps.. a little bulking up maybe?) and the ability of Yao to draw opposing Centers away from the basket means easier baskets for SF & Cat. Maybe even the end of "small ball". 5) The majority of posters here felt the Rocket were a 45+ win team at the start of last season and a lock for the playoffs. IMO, the team with Yao Ming is closer than 3 seasons away. Especially with Robinson retiring and Shaq wearing down, etc. 6) The Chinese Basketball Association and the Chinese government both want Ming to succeed. When push comes to shove, I think they will be reasonable in their negotiations with the Rockets. The comparison to Sabonis is interesting and valid, but there is not a trade out there worth Ming at #1. The Rockets still have the 15th pick, a very tradeable KT, the ability to re-sign Kevin Willis to mentor Ming, and the MCE in which to gain "vet" leadership.
Excellent cases, both for and against Yao. I say Yao, but if we get enough in a trade, maybe not. However, again, it requires at least a Duncan, a Rasheed, a Garnett, a Webber a Gasol plus or something similar. Talk of Dunlevy and other unproven rookies who have to do their own strength building, development before being fully contributing is a weak anti-Yao argument. As an aside, if you could work it out, I believe you could trade Yao and filler for Jay Williams, Dunlevy and Butler in a three for one. It would still leave the Rockets playing small ball, but would reflect the relative values of the draft choices.
Yao Ming is fascinating in that, in time, he may change the way a big man can impact the game. There's probably no one he can truly be compared to so gauge how good he can be. All comparisons with Sabonis, Bradley, Nevitt etc. are not apples to apples. But the operative word above is IN TIME. Think about where the Rockets are with their key players, all of whom are relatively young and inexperienced. Each is going to come into his own over the next couple of years, and what is sorely needed is an experienced impact low post player NOW. Big men typically take longer to develop their games than guards, and it will likely take Ming at least 3-5 years to muscle up and learn to be an effective NBA inside force. And I don't think the current group of Francis, Mobley, EG etc. want to wait for that, I wouldn't. Moreover they badly need strong veteran leadership immediately. That's why logic tells me that, presented with the right trade opportunity our #1 pick can generate, we will probably move the pick and acquire one or more veteran players who can impact the team now and provide leadership and toughness. Just my thoughts Dallas Rocket
All this team needs, assuming an emerging Griffin, allstar Francis and best second tier player in Mobley, is a nice consistent 14/5 three and a 15/8+ five. Ming fits the center spot and.....There is currently not a trade out there that can bring us a 15/8+ guy like Ming could be...I dare say there are only a handful of 15/8 centers out there right now......I make this case because Smits averaged 14.5/6.5 over his career and Ming is a far better athlete and skilled player. Consequently, I expect Ming to average at least 15/8 over his career and project him to average 17/10 over his career. This alone puts the Rox far ahead of the past 2 years barring no major injuries! Remember, we have not had a consistent starting three or center who averaged more than 10 and 5 over the past 2 years. Imagine what adding a center finally to this mix...
I understand your hopes Gator and Dallas, but, like mentionned in the first post: they are hopes. I'm pretty sure that Ming will turn out at least a twelve point , six rebound and two blocks per game center. He will achieve that in the worst of cases. As you pointed out, Ming will not be given the time to fully contribute in Rudy's system after establishing some sort of veteran status (three years). Knowing this: guess who will be ringing at his door, when he's free agent status is around? Chicago or New york. Wo will answer for him? Chinese establishment. Who will push him to move from Houston? same establishment. If drafted, it's high probability that Ming leaves us just when his contribution would really be felt. Secondly, I really feel that one project on a team is enough. I'm a firm Griffin believer but this is what he is for Houston: a project full of promises. To support Francis and Mobley comes Playoff time in the coming three years, we need established NBA players with well rounded bball games. These players need to be at least as good as Willis and Williams but younger. One thing I also question: How would Steve react? If Ming is drafted, he looses his status of franchise player. Ming would take up the title. Spotlights, expectations would be on Ming. How hard would this be for a player called 'Franchise'? I really feel Ming (first pick) can bring us the missing pieces (players) for us to be competitive next year. There are good players out there available.
A valid point, but the Rockets will have a team option for year 4. If Ming is anywhere near his potential and the Rockets are going deep into the playoffs, I would look for the Chinese government to backoff a great deal. You are smart enough to know that Yao, Wang ZhiZhi, and Mengk Bateer will not be the only Chinese players in the NBA by the 2006-2007 season (Summer 2006 is Ming's first as a FA).
GATER seems to be right on in his posts. Sure, Ming could bring us some players to make us competitive next year. I think we would be competitive next year even if you took away the #1. We want more than competitive next year. We want Ming.
I probably have to reconsider. It is true, Ming will probably not be the only chinese player in he years to come. And the chinese government leverage should somewhat ease with this in consideration. If Ming goes through the draft camps and some drills and confirm, i would be a new Yao supporter...
I know, this was just to emphasize that Ming is one sort of bird that might get lost into a chinese bush somewhere, while it's trade value is probably worth two serviceable players. To put it more bluntly...
It's been a While since i posted here. I am a returning member from few years ago who lost his password ( Rocketincleveland for those who are still around from few years ago). But, I lived in Europe in early 80's and was fortunate enough to see Sabonis in his prime. He was Fast, Powerful, Great shooter, Great passer, and w/ a serously bad temper ( always got into fights) Nothing like what you guys saw of him in here. I reemember in 1984( or 85 - been a long time) world championship matchup, how he was playing against the US team that had, david Robinson, Armon Gilliam, ? Smith (powerforward that played for the Knicks) Dan Majorle, and Mugsy Bougs (sp.) He dominatated the US team that triple teamed in the entire game, Held Robinson to 6 points, and in one fastbreak play he was the one running and staying step-by-step with Mogsy. Again those who remembr me from the old days ( by the way what happened to Popeye? ) Know that I truely beleive the Dream is the best ever in the center position. However, I don't think even Shaq was a match to Sabonis in his prime ( only Hakeem). So if Yao is 70% of Arvidas, we've got Gold.
This USSR/USA game is really good memory! How Sabonis whipped the US frontline! What is great about the next period is that Yao Ming will go through some testing afterall, although nothing spectacular. I hear he will have some games with the Chinese team against other national teams. Can't Team USA organise a game in the next month ? This would be a perfect insight on what the real Ming is all about. I still don't understand why the chinese back away from further drills and work-outs, it's in their best interest to have expectations justified and avoid any hype on Ming: It's always better to exceed expectations than to the other way.
