Matsui getting caught stealing in the 1st reminded me of a little analysis Zach Levine did at the end of last season. His conclusion: The total effect of the Astros' basestealing efforts vs. never trying at all was roughly a zero.
Looked like he was in there too. Ugh. Ump couldn't see the play, and looks like he assumed Matsui was tagged on the foot. Bases should have been loaded with no outs. ugh.
Yes, he did look safe. The issue I have is that the overall basestealing effort doesn't seem to have any benefit while it carries the risk of injury.
At least we're walking and pushing up Wainright's pitch count... Now if we could take advantage of it...
That is an incredibly high pitch count to not have pushed over a single run. At least we're making Wainwright work.
Absolutely correct. Most of the studies done on the impact of stolen bases on scoring runs have found that you need somewhere around a 75% success rate to have a positive impact on your offensive performance. The Astros stole a lot of bases last year (114), but their cumulative SB percentage of 68% means they cost themselves more runs than they created on the bases. That said, Bourn, Matsui & even Berkman had great individual stolen base seasons. I'd continue to give Bourn and Matsui the green light, and put the brakes on everyone else.
