It’s time for one last edition of the State of the Western Conference Playoff Race. We only have 6 nights of basketball left, but there is so much up in the air. A week ago things seem a lot more settled. Today we have a complete tossup for 3-5 as well as 6-8. The Rockets could still wind up #2, and the Spurs could fall to #6. There are major Contender showdowns almost every night, and so many seeds will go down to the wire. Get your taxes done this weekend, because you’re going to want to be free to watch all the action April 15 as this exciting race draws to a close. <B>Rockets</B>: @Warriors, Hornets, @Mavs <B>Last Week: 3-1</B> @Lakers 93, ROCKETS 81 @ROCKETS 102, Blazers 88 @ROCKETS 93, Magic 83 ROCKETS 115, @Kings 98 The week began with a lot of pessimism as the Rockets dropped an ugly game in LA. The Rockets silenced a lot of their skeptics with impressive wins over the Blazers and Magic at home. They capped the week with a second-half blowout of the Kings. A 3-1 week that has the Rockets rolling with 3 straight wins has to be considered a success. The Rockets are back in the #3 spot, and I don’t think they’ll be giving it back this time. The Rockets have 2 Contender (1H, 1A) and 1 Probable (0H, 1A) games left on their schedule. After the second half drubbing we put on the Kings, I’m confident we’ll focus and handle the Warriors on Friday, which will drop all Magic Numbers 1. We will win the home game against the Hornets. The Rockets have been so good at home lately, and the Hornets are in a deep funk as they limp towards the Playoffs. I expect this game to be a rout, especially since the Hornets are coming off a game against Dallas the night before. The game in Dallas scares me. We should be on a 5 game winning streak and playing for a shot at the #2 seed, but Dallas has been good at home. The wins over Phoenix and Utah were extremely impressive, but I’m not exactly impressed with the caliber of either of those teams on the road. The Mavs could be playing for a shot to move up to #7, and that would be a lot of incentive for them to go all-out. It’ll be tough, but I like our chances in that game. That’s a 3-0 cap to finish with a 6 game winning streak. We finish at 54-28 and will grab the #2 seed. <B> Top Seven West Contenders</B> <B>Suns</B>: Booking their fishing trip <B>Mavericks</B>: Hornets, @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets <B>Last Week: 2-1</B> @Grizz 107, MAVS 102 @MAVS 140, Suns 116 @MAVS 130, Jazz 101 The Mavs started the week off with a brutal loss in Memphis. That game will likely come back to haunt them if they wind up #8, and it really was inexcusable at this point of the season. They did make amends by destroying the Suns and Jazz in Dallas to finish the week in a tie for #7. Dallas does not have the tie break with either the Jazz or Hornets, so they will have to finish a game better than those teams if they want to avoid the Lakers in the first round. We have clinched a better record than the Mavs. Dallas has 3 Contender (2H, 1A) and 1 Probable (1H, 0A) games left on their schedule. They will beat up on a Wolves team in Dallas. I had assumed they would drop both games to the Hornets, but I am really unimpressed with the recent play of the Hornets. I’ll give tonight’s game in Dallas to the Mavs, but I think the Hornets will turn it around and win in New Orleans. Once again that final game against the Rockets scares me. Dallas should be playing for a chance at the #7 seed, but the Rockets have a better team and should win that game. That’s a 2-2 finish and a final record of 49-33. That’s a pretty good record for this Mavs team, but it won’t be enough to avoid meeting the Lakers in the first round. Likelihood: Clinched Magic Number: Bridled Magic Number over Hornets: 6 (-5) Magic Number over Jazz: 5 (-4) Projected Record: 49-33 Projected Seed: #8 <B>Hornets</B>: @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, @Spurs <B>Last Week: 1-3</B> @Warriors 111, HORNETS 103 Jazz 108, @HORNETS 94 HORNETS 93, @Heat 87 Suns 105, @HORNETS 100 This was a terrible week for the Hornets that avoided being a full-blown catastrophe only with another Rasual Butler buzzer-beating 3. They started the week with an uninspired effort in GolXen State, and they followed that up by letting the road-woeful Jazz roll out to a 41-19 first quarter lead in a blowout loss. The Hornets got bailed out in Miami by Butler’s last second heroics and a clutch overtime victory. Yet they finished the week by letting the all-but-eliminated Suns dominate them in the second half of another bad home loss. The Hornets find themselves #6, only a game up on Utah and Dallas, with 4 tough games coming up. With the way they’re playing, the Hornets have to be the dream matchup for the West in the first round. The Hornets win the tie break over the Mavs, but they lose it to the Jazz. With our 1 Probable victory, we knock the Hornets out with just 1 more Hornet loss or Rocket Contender victory. New Orleans has 4 Contender (1H, 3A) and 0 Probable (0H, 0A) games left on their schedule. They start off with a home and home with the Mavs. Dallas will continue their strong home play and take the first game, but the Hornets will get the game in the Big Easy. I really like the Rockets at home over the Hornets. The last game of the season is in San Antonio, and I think the Hornets pull the upset. The Hornets seem to bring their best effort against the Spurs, and I don’t think the Spurs are capable of giving anything close to their best shot back. That’s a 2-2 finish and a final record of 50-32, which sees them drop to #7. Likelihood: Excellent (Clinched if we win April 13, Very Good if we lose) Magic Number: 2 (-6) Magic Number over Rockets: 7 (-2) Magic Number over Mavs: 3 (-3) Magic Number over Jazz: 4 (-3) Projected Record: 50-32 Projected Seed: #7 <B>Jazz</B>: @Spurs, Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers <B>Last Week: 1-2</B> Wolves 103, @JAZZ 102 JAZZ 108, @Hornets 94 @Mavs 130, JAZZ 101 I really hate the Jazz, but I felt I had figured out our old rival. I was wrong. The Jazz had won 15 straight home games and then got beaten by a bad Wolves team in Utah. I felt something tremble in the force, but I figured it was just slight tremors. The Jazz had lost 15 straight games on the road to winning teams, but they went to New Orleans and absolutely steamrolled the Hornets. Clearly the Basketball Gods were trying to tell me that this race cannot be predicted. I had no idea what to expect when the Jazz traveled to Dallas for a huge showdown with the Mavs. No more surprises. The Mavs destroyed the Jazz in a game that was never really close after the first quarter. If I had to guess I’d say the Jazz will return to form and those first 2 games were just an anomaly. The Jazz will finish between #6 and #8, but they have the tie break on both the Hornets and Mavs. In addition the Mavs and Hornets have a home and home against one another, so that’s 2 guaranteed Magic Numbers dropping for the Jazz. We knock the Jazz out with more Rocket win or Jazz loss. The Warriors game tonight should do the trick. Utah has 2 Contender (0H, 2A) and 2 Probable (2H, 0A) games left on their schedule. The Clippers and Warriors games should be gimmes. That loss to the Wolves was a wake up call, and I get the impression that Sloan will have his team ready to massacre scrub teams on Utah’s home court. The 2 Contenders are very intriguing. The Jazz suck on the road, but the Spurs have looked very unimpressive lately. The Blazer loss was especially eye-opening, but the Spurs were on the second night of a back-to-back. With a day of rest, the Spurs should be able to defeat the Jazz tonight in San Antonio. The last game against the Lakers is a toss-up. If the Lakers are out of the running for best record in the NBA, they will likely rest their starters, especially if beating the Jazz meant pushing Utah down to #8. I think the Lakers will be out of the running, and the Jazz are going to want to ensure they don’t face the Lakers in the first round. Jazz win the last game in LA. That’s a 3-1 finish and a final record of 50-32, which should be enough to secure the #6 seed. Likelihood: Damn Near Certain Magic Number: 1 (-5) Magic Number over Rockets: 7 (-2) Magic Number over Hornets: 5 (-4) Magic Number over Mavs: 4 (-3) Projected Record: 50-32 Projected Seed: #6 <B>Spurs</B>: Jazz, @Kings, @Warriors, Hornets <B>Last Week: 2-2</B> SPURS 126, @Pacers 121 @Cavs 101, SPURS 81 SPURS 99, @Thieves 89 Blazers 95, @SPURS 83 The Spurs are limping to the finish line and appear to have no shot to go deep in the Playoffs this year. They nearly lost in Indiana before the Pacers self-destructed, and the Cavs made mincemeat of them. On Monday they lost Ginobili, which appeared to be the death blow for this team. The Spurs rallied the next day to take down a Thieves team that has had their number recently, but they faced a Blazers team the very next night. Popovich usually rests Duncan on the second game of back-to-backs, and we found out why. Tim Duncan is clearly not playing with 2 healthy knees. He looked terrible in that Blazer game, and Portland raced back from a 20 point deficit to completely dominate this game and take a critical Tie Break over the Spurs. There are no back-to-backs in the Playoffs, but the Spurs are not a deep team. Roger Mason is in the starting lineup now, and the bench is thin. The Spurs lose the tie break against the Blazers, but they own it over Utah. This team will finish between #3 and #5, but it increasingly looks like they’ll open on the road in the first round. With our 1 Probable win, we knock the Spurs out with a combination of 3 Spur losses or Rocket Contender victories. We still have an excellent shot at the tie break as well, which would drop the Magic Number an additional point. Hopefully everyone knows the tie break situation by now, but it essentially boils down to this: Rockets Division Record: 8-6 Rockets Division Record Magic Number to Tie: 2 Rockets Division Record Magic Number to Win: 3 Spurs Division Record: 9-6 Spurs Division Record Magic Number to Tie: 1 Spurs Division Record Magic Number to Win: 2 Rockets Division Games: Hornets, @Mavs Spurs Conference Games: Hornets If we draw at least a tie with the Spurs in the division record, we win the tie break. San Antonio has 2 Contender (2H, 0A) and 2 Probable (0H, 2A) games left on their schedule. The 2 Probables are not a lock. They play on the road in Suckramento and GolXen State in a back-to-back situation. Even without Captain Jack, the Warriors like to run and gun, and I don’t think the Spurs can do that on the second night of a back-to-back. Duncan will probably sit, and I think the Spurs will drop the game against the Warriors. Their 2 Contender matchups are hard to call. They face a terrible road team when the Jazz visit San Antonio tonight, but the Spurs seem vulnerable to athletic and physical teams. Still the Jazz looked wretched in losing to Dallas, and I’m throwing out the win in New Orleans as a fluke Hornet thing. The Spurs will win tonight, but I don’t like their chances on the last day of the season. The Hornets seem to pull out of their funks to bring their A game against the Spurs. Chris Paul and David West will have a field day and win that final game in San Antonio. That’s a 2-2 finish for a final record of 52-30. Pretty impressive for an old team that’s had banged up stars all season, but that record likely sees them at #5. Likelihood: Dicey (Tough if we lose the tie break, Good if we get it.) Magic Number: 4 (-5) Magic Number over Rockets: 5 (-3) Magic Number over Blazers: 5 (-3) Projected Record: 52-30 Projected Seed: #5 <B>Blazers</B>: Lakers, @Clippers, Thieves, Nuggets <B>Last Week: 3-1</B> BLAZERS 107, @Thieves 72 @Rockets 102, BLAZERS 88 BLAZERS 96, @Grizz 93 BLAZERS 95, @Spurs 83 The Blazers entered the week on a serious roll and pushed their winning streak to 4 with a blowout victory over the Thieves. Then they came to Houston and faced a Rockets team that seems to have their number. The Rockets took everything the Blazers threw at them and never seemed like they didn’t have the game in control. The Blazers followed up that loss with a game in Memphis where they had to rally from 18 back to get a close win over a bad Grizz team. They couldn’t be feeling good about themselves, particularly when the Spurs raced out to a 20 point lead, but it looks like Portland got their mojo back as they destroyed the Spurs from the midpoint of the second quarter on. The Blazers aren’t winning their division, but they have the tie break on the Spurs and look good to get home court in the first round. With our 1 Probable victory, we knock the Blazers out with a combination of 2 Blazer losses and Rocket Contender victories. Portland has 2 Contender (2H, 0A) and 2 Probable (1H, 1A) games left on their schedule. They will destroy the Clippers and Thieves. The 2 Contender games are both in Portland. The Blazers have already impressively taken down the Lakers in Portland, and I think they’ll do it again tonight. The Lakers played last night, and I think Portland will be fresh and use their athleticism to take advantage of a tired Lakers team. The last game of the season will likely mean nothing to the Blazers if they’re a game up on the Spurs, but the Nuggets could very well be trying to avoid the Jazz in round 1. Still this game is in Portland, and I think the Blazers will use it as a statement game and defeat the Nuggets on the very final game of the season. That’s a 4-0 finish, and a 54-28 record. The Nuggets have the tie break over the Blazers and would win the division, and the Rockets own the tie break on the Blazers, pushing them down to #4. I think Portland relishes drawing the Spurs with home court advantage. Likelihood: Dicey Magic Number: 3 (-5) Magic Number over Rockets: 5 (-4) Magic Number over Nuggets: 6 (-4) Magic Number over Spurs: 4 (-6) Projected Record: 54-28 Projected Seed: #4 <B>Nuggets</B>: Kings, @Blazers <B>Last Week: 3-1</B> @NUGGETS 120, Clippers 104 NUGGETS 110, @Wolves 87 @NUGGETS 122, Thieves 112 @Lakers 116, NUGGETS 102 The Nuggets had the easiest schedule down the stretch, and they took full advantage by rolling up an 8 game winning streak. That included 3 pretty dominating wins over Probables this week. Then they traveled to LA for a huge showdown with the Lakers. The Nuggets lost, but they have to be happy that they hung in for a while with the Lakers. Still, they gave up way too many points and remain Enver in my book. The Nuggets are a near lock to win the division, needing just 1 more victory or a Blazer loss to clinch the Northwest. Still if they lose to the Kings, things could mighty interesting in the Northwest. With our 1 Probable victory, we knock the Nuggets out with a combination of 3 Nugget losses and Rocket Contender victories. The Rockets own the tie break over the Nuggets after taking the season series 3-1. Enver has 1 Contender (0H, 1A) and 1 Probable (0H, 1A) games left on their schedule. Even though the Kings beat them up in Suckramento a few weeks back, I just can’t see the Nuggets losing this game. It gives them the Norhtwest and puts them on the doorstep of the #2 seed. The game in Portland is a hard matchup to predict, but I’ll take the Blazers in that one. That’s a 1-1 finish for a 54-28 record. They take the Northwest division over the Blazers, but if the Rockets win out, Houston will take the #2 seed. Likelihood: Tough Magic Number: 4 (-4) Magic Number over Rockets: 2 (-4) Magic Number over Blazers: 1 (-5) Magic Number over Spurs: 1 (-5) Projected Record: 54-28 Projected Seed: #3 <B>Lakers</B>: @Blazers, Grizz, Jazz <B>Last Week: 4-0</B> @LAKERS 93, Rockets 81 @LAKERS 88, Clippers 85 LAKERS 122, @Kings 104 @LAKERS 116, Nuggets 102 The Lakers are in a dogfight for the top record in the NBA. I really wish Phil had read my memo on how the Lakers are supposed to lose to the Rockets, but they did beat the Nuggets, which opens the door to the #2 seed. The Lakers have now won 5 straight and are only a ½ game down on the Cavs. LA has 2 Contender (1H, 1A) and 1 Probable (1H, 0A) games left on their schedule. They will destroy the Grizz, but I think they’re in trouble tonight in Portland. Even with Bynum back, the Blazers can throw a lot of big, athletic lineups at the Lakers. They beat the Lakers handily in Portland a few weeks ago, and they’ll do so again tonight. If the Lakers do lose, they are 2 losses back with Cleveland. The Cavs do close with 4 straight games against Playoff teams, but I think the Cavs will wrap things up before the Lakers host the Jazz. More than likely Phil would rest his starters in that situation, and the Jazz would capitalize and beat the Lakers. That’s a 1-2 finish and a 64-18 record. Likelihood: Not This Year Magic Number: 16 (-3) Magic Number over Cavs: 4 (-5) Cavs’ Number over Lakers: 4 (-2) Projected Record: 66-16 Confirmed Seed: #1 <B>Projected Matchups</B>: #1 Lakers hosting #8 Mavs #2 Rockets hosting #7 Hornets #3 Nuggets hosting #6 Jazz #4 Blazers hosting #5 Spurs I would love to get this lineup, but we’ll see. There are just so many important games coming up, and a few upsets along the way will greatly disrupt anything. <B>This Week’s Key Head to Head Matchups</B>: Friday: Jazz at Spurs Friday: Hornets at Mavs Friday: Lakers at Blazers Sunday: Mavs at Hornets Monday: Hornets at Rockets Tuesday: Jazz at Lakers Wednesday: Rockets at Mavs Wednesday: Hornets at Spurs Wednesday: Nuggets at Blazers
Awesome if that matchup really does occur. Not feeling too good about the #2 seed though. Denver has been playing strong for the past couple weeks.
I agree, #2 seed with a first round matchup with NOH would be great. The second round against Denver (or Utah) with HCA would be good as well. While I am dreaming, an upset by Portland against LAL in the second round would set up the WC Finals against Portland with HCA. That would leave the finals against Cleveland, which is a team that Houston matches up well with. So that is our path to the championship. Getting ahead of my self, lets first get the # 2 seed.
1. Lakers 2. Rockets 3. Nuggets 4. Blazers 5. Spurs 6. Mavs 7. Hornets 8. Jazz Lakers over Jazz Rockets over Hornets Nuggets over Mavs Blazers over Spurs Blazers over Lakers Rockets over Nuggets Rockets over Blazers Rockets over Cavs/Celtics/Magic ROCKETS CHAMPIONS!
do the hornets have the tiebreaker against the jazz? i think its very unilkely the jazz end up with the 8 seed
<B> Games H2H Div Con Overall Magic </B> <B> Team W/L L10 H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TieBreak Number Diff</B> 1 Lakers 63-16 8-2 0-4 None L 42-7 L No*<B> 16</B> 2 Nuggets 53-27 8-2 3-1 None W 34-16 L Yes*<B> 4</B> 3 Spurs 51-28 6-4 2-2 None T 9-6 L 33-16 T No<B> 4</B> 4 Rockets 51-28 7-3 8-6 33-16 5 Blazers 50-28 7-3 2-1 None W 28-20 W Yes*<B> 3</B> 6 Hornets 48-31 4-6 2-1 1H W 8-5 L 29-20 W Yes<B> 1</B> (-1) 7 Mavericks 48-31 7-3 2-1 1A W 6-8 W 27-22 W Yes*<B> Bridled</B> 8 Jazz 47-32 4-6 2-2 None T 32-17 W Yes<B> Silenced</B> * Indicates the Tie Break is final <B>Clinched the #6 seed</B> Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after the <B>Jazz @ Spurs, Hornets @ Mavs</B> games. I thought I’d post a quick Magic Number Chart after the two important early evening games. We have officially clinched the #6 seed. Next up: the Hornets and the #5 seed. I’ll have a full write up after the Rockets @ Warriors and Lakers @ Blazers are over. Magic Numbers #6 - #8 6 Hornets: Mavs, @Rockets, @Spurs Magic Number over Jazz: 3 (-1) Magic Number over Mavs: 3 7 Mavs: @Hornets, Wolves, Rockets Magic Number over Jazz: 3 (-2) Magic Number over Hornets: 4 (-2) 8 Jazz: Warriors, Clippers, @Lakers Magic Number over Mavs: 4 Magic Number over Hornets: 4 (-1)
Just as I thought, the Jazz lost to an undermanned SA tonight. I always thought the Jazz were only formidable at home and quite vulnerable when playing away. I guessed SA is still fighting for division title.
It would be crazy for the Clippers to beat the Blazers tomorrow but boy would that help. Now what would be even more insane is to see Utah lose at home to GoldenState. Overall, this is probably one of the best playoff races i've seen in a long time. Better than last year's in my opinion. But I also think its been one of the most stressful one as well. I just hope nothing is seriously wrong with Yao's foot.
if there is a 3 way tie for 3rd - 5th place, who gets 3rd? I know this has been answered several times... it's just that I've heard different answers every time.
depends on if we are tied in division record with spurs. if we are. we get the 3rd seed. if we lose the division tie break, we get the 4th seed
You have to pick the division winner first. That's either the Rockets or the Spurs. The Southwest division winner automatically wins the tie break and get the #3 seed. The you seed the other 2 according to the head-to-head record. If the Rockets win the Southwest, it would be Rockets, Blazers, Spurs. If the Spurs win the Southwest, it would be Spurs, Rockets, Blazers.
it truly cannot be determined without knowing the results of the next three games for each team in the running. it all comes down to who loses which games and when. divisional/conference matchups and whatnot...
april 15th will be insane......... houston at dallas, new orleans at san antonio, denver at portland.
