Great article Jeff. I'm almost sold. Almost. If they pick Ming, I will be happy. If they pick somebody else at #1, I will be very unhappy. If they trade the #1 to add a good veteran and get multiple 1st round picks (either this year or next), I would be pretty happy with that too. Barring an awesome vet being added to this team, I still don't see us being in the playoffs next year. With or without Ming, I'm mentally prepared for Lottery Race 2003. --Drof
<i>What is your take on Ming in 4 years? If the Communist tell him where he can play (and not play), what happens at the end of his Rookie contract? Would you say there is about a 90% chance we loose him to New York (?) in 4 years? and we get nothing in return? </i> Rookie first round contracts are for four years with a team option for a fifth year. After 5 years if the team hasn't been successful or if Yao isn't comfortable in Houston, then he'll move on. But, on the flip side, if we haven't been successful after 5 years, then we'll probably be looking to make changes anyway. If Ming lives here for 5 years, this will be his home and the Rockets will be his team, he should be comfortable here. Plus we will always be able to pay him more money than anybody else. This is the same as the arguments we heard about Steve Francis ("He's going to go back home to Washington and sign with Jordan"). If he's got a good thing going in Houston, I don't see the appeal of NY five years down the road. Chris Webber supposedly hated SacTown and wanted to play for NY, but where did he end up? Worse case, he does decide that he wants to go play for NY, how do they acquire him? The Knicks are and will be capped out from now to doomsday. They won't be able to sign him outright unless he's willing to play for bargain basement (exception) prices for 3 years. What would happen in that scenario, is that the Knicks and Rockets would have to work out a sign and trade. That's the way all of the big name free agent movement is occurring nowdays. I can't recall one big name free agent being signed outright since Shaq. I'm sure there's been somebody, but they are few and far between. So, if he does decide to leave, then we would still get compensation. If our biggest concern is whether a guy will resign 5 years down the road, then we're in pretty good shape.
why should the rockets draft a guy like ming? I've seen him play when I visited my aunt in shanghi. The guy is slow and has no post up moves. Everyone only wants to pick this guy because of his height! The only thing I can say thats good about him is that he can shoot the rock. But hes no Hakkem!
Only thing different about Ming, is China. He is basically a 21st century slave (he is not free - as china has stated), and he has no choice where he plays in 5 years. Yes, he may fall in love with our minature China (see Sharpstown), and he may love playing for the Rockets. But it is not, and will never be, his choice (unless he defects - DO IT MING!!!). China has no choice who drafts him, but after 5 years - they will have 100% say where he goes. As Jeff pointed out, it is pretty scary that if if China does not like the way Rudy is grooming Ming (see Griffin), that they can severly screw with us!
As usual great article Jeff. I was thinking to myself today some of the same exact things you wrote about the marketing aspects of choosing Ming. I think a lot of the business side of the Rockets organization is going to have a hard time not wanting to pick Ming. From a marketing and merchandising standpoint Ming is a can't lose selection. With 1.2 billion people to market to, and being able to select one of the biggest sports names in China, this side of a gymnastics competition, probably makes Les Alexander salivate like Pavlov's dogs at a backyard Barbeque. With the Rockets staring at a new arena in a couple of years along with a uniform switch, it would not surprise me in the least to find out that the marketing team is already testing slogans in anticipation of selecting Yao. Furthermore it would surprise me even less to see the new uniforms end up being some semblence of the classic red uniforms with little gold stars on them(see: Flag,Chinese). Even if Yao turns out to be at best a mediocre player, with the right marketing the Rockets could easily come out financial winners. Something I am sure will weigh greatly on the decisions on what to do for the draft. CK
I am on the Ming bandwagon. Who's to say he won't defect though? If that happens then China will probably never let another player come over here again. I don't think Stern would let that happen as much as it would tarnish the NBA name with 1 billion potential fans... World War III over an NBA pick.
Jeff, you should be a professional writer or columnist!...That was so well written. . Good job! ...I have been on the fence, but I am leaning very much towards rolling the dice...Let's face it: it's a risk, but I'm thinking it's worth it. I think Ming could easily gain more bulk, and he already is suppose to be 300 lbs.! He is still young and when he matures, so will his skill and physique... I think a Jay Williams or Dunleavy is safer, but the Rockets are at a point in their existance where it makes sense to against convention...Marketing shouldn't be the factor that it is, but getting Ming will help in National recognition (as well as International) so much that dynamic byproducts will surely happen, such as suggested from Jeff's well written piece...Let's face it, attention is a good thing. Something the Rockets need. The other players will only feed off the new found energy... Usually, I'm conservative, usally I say play it sure and safe...but in this instance the risk may be safer than the safe...(yes, that did make sense! )
Selling jerseys in China, getting the 2012 Olympics, getting nationally televised games and any other possibilities Jeff mentioned may or may not be important to the Rockets. But, they don't mean much to me. I want the Rockets to field the best team they can and whether the best would include Yao Ming is questionable. Certainly, he'd be an asset. But would he be a bigger asset on the roster or in trade?
NIce article Jeff, but I`m not sold. There are to many if`s and maybe`s with Ming. I think it`s great that he would be a marketing magnet, but the bottom line is can he play basketball with the caliber of players that the NBA will throw at him? I have not heard or seen any one person who has watched Ming over an extended period of time ( 2 halfs at the CBA playoffs does not count) not to mention the level of competition he has played against. This pick could turn our club around over night if we play our cards right, or we could waste the biggest pick we`ve had in a very long time. Alot of people would be happy if we picked Ming and he was as good as Rik Smits, I for one think we can do better. I hope we package the pick and get a solid player(s) who can help us to the playoffs this year. By the way, the article was very nicely done, good Job!!
you can't defect to the US from a nation we have relations with, as I understand it. I don't know a ton about international law, but I've heard this said more than a few times now regarding Ming. I don't think the US would risk the problems that would be associated with that, either.
YAO MING = TO MUCH RISK! This guy will never reach his potential being controlled by chinese government. He will miss valuable summer league games, training camps, preseason games, and maybe even regular seasons game. Next season is not the year that you want to have a player dragging behind everybody else, when a playoff berth is crucial. I can see another excuse popping up on why the Rockets didn't make the playoffs. I think you have to look at it longterm and what's best for the Rockets. It will be all the hype and the mania early, but then it will quickly fade. NBA Players will eat him alive. If he was not controlled by the chinese government, then he would be worthy of a #1 pick.
