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Rockets point differential vs probable first round opponents...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Northside Storm, Mar 29, 2009.

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  1. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Member

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    Now this might be jumping the gun a bit since there are still contender games to be played and two-three games are never an ideal sample...but I thought I'd look into it to try to get an objective look at the "which team do we really want in the first round" debate.

    Two things to note; the whole Tracy McGrady mess is not included in the significant factors section because he ultimately has a very slim chance of being there for the playoffs. The Suns and Lakers are not included because it is almost impossible that the Rockets will slide to the eight seed or go up to become the first seed.

    vs San Antonio
    Head-to-head record: 2-2
    Game 1 (@San Antonio): 75-77 (L)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 103-84 (W)
    Game 3 (@Houston): 85-88 (L)
    Game 4 (@San Antonio): 87-85 (W)

    Points scored per game: 87.5
    Points allowed per game: 83.5
    Point differential per game: +4.00
    Significant factors: Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili did not play the first game. Manu Ginobili did not play the third game. Manu Ginobili did not play the fourth game.

    vs New Orleans
    Head-to-head record: 2-1
    Game 1 (@Houston): 91-82 (W)
    Game 2 (@New Orleans): 79-88 (L)
    Game 3 (@New Orleans): 95-84 (W)
    Game 4 (@Houston): TBD

    Points scored per game: 88.33
    Points allowed per game: 84.66
    Point differential per game: +3.67
    Significant factors: Ron Artest did not play for the second game. Yao Ming and Peja Stojakovic did not play for the third game.

    vs Dallas
    Head-to-head record: 2-1
    Game 1 (@Dallas): 112-102 (W)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 86-96 (L)
    Game 3 (@Houston): 93-86 (W)
    Game 4 (@Dallas): TBD

    Points scored per game: 97
    Points allowed per game: 94.66
    Point differential per game: +2.34
    Significant factors: Yao Ming did not play for the second game. Carl Landry and Jason Terry did not play for the third game.

    vs Denver
    Head-to-head record: 3-1
    Game 1 (@Denver): 94-104 (L)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 108-96 (W)
    Game 3 (@Houston): 115-113 (W)
    Game 4 (@Denver): 97-95 (W)

    Points scored per game: 103.5
    Points allowed per game: 102
    Point differential per game: +1.50
    Significant factors: Carmelo Anthony did not play the third game.

    vs Portland
    Head-to-head record: 1-1
    Game 1 (@Portland): 101-99 (L-Roy :/)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 98-94 (W)
    Game 3 (@Houston): TBD

    Points scored per game: 98.5
    Points allowed per game: 97.5
    Point differential per game: +1.00
    Significant factors: N/A

    vs Utah
    Head-to-head record: 2-2
    Game 1 (@Houston): 120-115 (W)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 108-99 (W)
    Game 3 (@Utah): 94-101 (L)
    Game 4 (@Utah): 86-99 (L)

    Points scored per game: 102
    Points allowed per game: 103.5
    Point differential per game: -1.50
    Significant factors: Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur did not play the first game. Carlos Boozer and Ron Artest did not play the second game.

    MISC. DATA
    Overall head-to-head record with WC "first round" contenders: 12-8 (.600)
    Point differential vs WC "first round" contenders: +1.80
    Point differential vs all teams: +3.93
    Rockets pace: 89.1 possessions per game (20th fastest in the league)
    Points scored per game (vs all opponents): 97.74
    Points allowed per game (vs all opponents): 93.82

    Quick notes
    Some quick notes I can draw up from this data...

    1-It appears we defend really well vs New Orleans and San Antonio. However, this can be a bit misleading; both of those teams play at a slower pace then the Rockets and the Spurs were missing Manu in three of the four sample games. Still, in general, I'd say the Rockets defense is well equipped to handle those teams.

    2-We defend extremely poorly vs Utah and to a certain degree, Denver. Both teams sport a crapload of athletic bigs/swingmen, things we do seem to have problems with defensively (not to mention the high pick and rolls that are the Achilles heel of the Rockets defense...Billups+Nene/Martin or Deron+Boozer/Millsap seem to give us particular trouble.

    3-Our most favorable matchup, all things accounted for, is against New Orleans. Our most unfavorable matchup is against Utah.

    4-In general, the Rockets are a very good team against the Western Conference contenders.
     
    #1 Northside Storm, Mar 29, 2009
    8 people like this.
  2. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Member

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    NBA.com shows our PPG as 98.47 and our opp. PPG as 94.54.

    And I've been saying for a while that the Hornets would be our ideal 1st round opponent. I don't think the Blazers would be nearly the walkover a lot of people seem to think they will be. The Rockets don't score enough points to blow teams out and Portland is the best in the league in close games and has a lot of athleticism which causes us trouble late in games (grabbing offensive boards, loose balls, etc...).
     
    #2 BrooksBall, Mar 29, 2009
  3. mms

    mms Member

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    5 stars!
     
    #3 mms, Mar 29, 2009
  4. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Member

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    Fair enough, I was calculating based on a pace per 100 possessions on the NBA power rankings, so those are probably the right figures.
     
    #4 Northside Storm, Mar 29, 2009
  5. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Member

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    It just caught my eye when I was reading your post. Great thread, btw. I agree, the Hornets are the best matchup for us despite CP3.
     
    #5 BrooksBall, Mar 29, 2009
  6. MisterPink

    MisterPink Member

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    I agree with most of this. Hornets would probably be our best bet; perhaps the Mavericks. I also really like our chances against the Nuggets. Portland is a strong team, and I really think it would be unwise to underestimate them.

    I think the whole field looks pretty solid, and getting out of the first round is going to be a battle, although the Rockets won't be a pushover for anyone else, either.
     
    #6 MisterPink, Mar 29, 2009
  7. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    Can we add to the Significant factors, when on leg T-Mac played? I think it was a negative most of the time.
     
    #7 el_locoteee, Mar 29, 2009
  8. ParaSolid

    ParaSolid Member

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    I think that realistically, we should hope to get NO or Portland. Some posters here would rather we face Utah in the first round to get rid of our demons or whatever. I say to heck with that, let's hope for the best match-up so we can finally get King Kong off our backs.
     
    #8 ParaSolid, Mar 29, 2009
  9. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    What does this say...seems like "Avoid Utah" to me :D
     
    #9 JayGoogle, Mar 29, 2009
  10. akuma

    akuma Member

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    how do the Rox do against the Lakers? what's ridiculous is when you look at Cleveland's path to the finals. first round against Chicago, second round against Atlanta or Miami, and the third round against a recovering-from-injuries Boston or Rafer-led Orlando after they've battled against each other. doesn't seem quite fair, but fair has nothing to do with the championship.

    i still would like Houston's path to the finals to be first round against New Orleans, second round against the Blazers (who've dispatched of the Nuggets), third round against the Spurs (who've dispatched of the Jazz and the Lakers and are exhausted), and the finals against Cleveland. looks good for the Rockets. hey, it could happen. :D
     
    #10 akuma, Mar 29, 2009
  11. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    That's a good route but the Spurs would have to be 4th or 5th to get into the Lakers bracket to play them in the second round.

    I think our best route is NOH first, then the Spurs 2nd. Beating the Spurs should give us all the confidence to beat the Lakers in the WCF. If we were to beat the Lakers then no one in the East scares me. Celts would scare me the most...but Orlando and Cleveland...they don't scare me too much. Shoulda beaten Cleveland at home but the Refs simply weren't going to let that happen and that's been like the only game i've blames the refs on this year.
     
    #11 JayGoogle, Mar 29, 2009
  12. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Member

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    To add the Lakers into the discussion...for hypothetical future rounds...

    vs Lakers
    Head-to-head record: 0-3
    Game 1 (@Los Angeles): 82-111 (L)
    Game 2 (@Houston): 100-105 (L)
    Game 3 (@Houston): 96-102 (L)
    Game 4 (@Los Angeles): TBD

    Points scored per game: 92.66
    Points allowed per game: 106
    Point differential per game: -13.34 :eek:
    Significant factors: Andrew Bynum did not play the third game. Lamar Odom did not play the third game.

    Summary
    Sacrifice a goat to your deity and pray that we don't meet the Lakers this year.
     
    #12 Northside Storm, Mar 29, 2009
  13. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Ouch!

    But that first game was a fluke, I don't know what happened that night. I think their second unit tore us apart we weren't as athlethic then. I don't think we had Battier, Wafer(not in rotation right?), and no Lowry.

    I remember we were up by double digits then their second guys came out and we looked old. That's not a problem for us though, we still have problems with mobile big men though.
     
    #13 JayGoogle, Mar 29, 2009
  14. dakeem1

    dakeem1 Member

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    my favourite matchups would be NO and SA. We all know that they won't face SA.
     
    #14 dakeem1, Mar 29, 2009
  15. Bruins&RedSox21

    Bruins&RedSox21 Member

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    I suppose it would have been much better to include my last post in this thread, rather than the "Enver" one:

    Because Portland is my 2nd favourite team (before they got good, no bandwagoner) my dreaming, yet realistic playoff seeding would be this:

    1. LA Lakers
    2. San Antonio Spurs
    3. Houston Rockets
    4. Portland Trail Blazers
    5. Denver Nuggets
    6. New Orleans Hornets
    7. Utah Jazz
    8. Dallas Mavericks? (Phoenix would be sweet here, but probably won't happen)

    Like most posters here, I think only the Lakers & Jazz are the "huge" threats. Spurs would be tough as well. The Hornets, IMO, would be a perfect confidence booster to get to the 2nd round.

    My apologies.
     
    #15 Bruins&RedSox21, Mar 29, 2009
  16. BruceHR

    BruceHR Member

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    Great analysis.

    NOH and Dal are the best opponents, Nuggets and Blazers the second..
     
    #16 BruceHR, Mar 29, 2009
  17. ozy615

    ozy615 Member

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    5 STAR
     
    #17 ozy615, Mar 30, 2009
  18. akuma

    akuma Member

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    well, actually it's not too unrealistic for the Spurs to drop to 4th. they're only 1 game away, or half a game depending on the tiebreakers. the Nuggets actually have a favorable and light schedule (7 games in april) with only 3 road games although 2 are against Portland and LA, and no tough home games besides maybe Utah, who are a terrible road team. it's actually more unrealistic for the Jazz to rise to 5th considering their schedule, but they're also only half a game out. of course this all depends on the Rockets taking care of business and winning out the rest of the season including the Lakers at Staples to easily clinch the 2 seed. if they do that, then i can see them having a Lakeresque run like in 2001.
     
    #18 akuma, Mar 30, 2009
  19. JLEW1818

    JLEW1818 Member

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    I just want the Jazz to get a 4/5 seed. And we get anything but 4,5,or 8.
    We would have a shot at the finals. Avoid LA/Utah the first 2 rounds is the only key.
     
    #19 JLEW1818, Mar 30, 2009
  20. Roxlover

    Roxlover Member

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    The Most important thing for ROX is staying 2n-4th on Standings ！！
     
    #20 Roxlover, Mar 30, 2009
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