Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;58-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;38-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;48-26&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-27&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;27-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;43-30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-7&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;23-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-34&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Eclipsed</B>

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

<B>Clinched the #8 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 29</B>.

What an incredible off night for the Rockets! We clinch a Playoff spot and gain a serious boost to our chances of a division title.

First off, we have some clarification via Feigen that for seeding purposes in the case of a tie division winners do indeed automatically get a higher seed over a non-division winner regardless of all other tie break criteria. I would love to get further confirmation on this, because there’s still a lot of other evidence pointing towards the Rockets being #3 (CNNSI, Sporting News, Chronicle, Denver Post, last year’s Rockets #1 in a Lakers-Hornets-Rockets tie with the Hornets being the division winner scenario). Nonetheless, I’m bumping the Rockets back down to #4 (tying them to the ESPN standings which use the NBA.com standings) until we do hear from someone else official who contradicts Feigen. We would still have home court advantage over the Nuggets if we met Enver in the Playoffs, and frankly I’d rather face Portland in the first round.

Going to the Playoffs!
Wow! This is the night the when Phoenix’s Playoff hopes died. They were on their fifth game of a stretch I’ve been calling the 9 Games of Mostly Doom. I figured the 7 Contenders would prove daunting but gave the Suns a pass on the pair of games against the Kings. Instead the Suns went into Suckramento and went down in flames, losing their third straight to the league’s worst team. Barring a historical collapse by Dallas, Phoenix will miss the Playoffs this year. Steve Nash finished with 31 points and 14 assists, and Shaq added 24 points and 9 boards in a losing effort. Jason Thompson had 21 points and 8 rebounds, and Kevin Martin scored 17 for the Kings.

Phoenix loses a Magic Number, which means we officially have closed them out and secured a Playoff spot. Next up: Dallas and the #7 seed. Last year, I wrote something special for clinching a Playoff spot, but this year, it doesn’t seem as significant. We’ve all expected the Rockets to make the Playoffs. I’m saving my excitement for clinching home court and hopefully winning the Southwest division. And of course, the major hurdle for this team is advancing to the second round. So good show to the Rockets for making the dance, but bigger things await.

Spurs @ Hornets
The Spurs and Hornets put on a good show in New Orleans tonight. Both teams had their chances, and New Orleans nearly threw it away with some last second goofs, but Chris Paul hit 3 late free throws to ice the victory for the Hornets. The loss by the Spurs drops them a Magic Number and also gives us a much better shot at clinching the Southwest division title. Tony Parker had 20 points and 7 assists, and Timmy added 19 points and 15 rebounds for the Spurs, who did clinch a Playoff berth despite the loss. Chris Paul had 26 points and 9 assists, and David West chipped in with 23 points and 16 rebounds for the Hornets.

The Spur Situation
The Rockets currently sit in second place in the Southwest, a ½ game behind the Spurs. We both have 48 wins, but the Rockets are still 1 back in the all too important loss column. The Spurs Magic Number is 10, and we have only 8 games left. The Spurs Magic Number over the Rockets is 9, and they have 9 games remaining. Right now, the Spurs control their own destiny. As long as they don’t lose more games than the Rockets down the stretch, they’ll win the division.

Then there’s the question of the tie break. If we can take the tie break, we need only make up one loss and we drop the Spurs’ Magic Number an extra point. If we lose that tie break, we have to make up 2 losses, and the Spurs Number over us drops a point. It’ll be mighty difficult to overcome the Spurs without that tie break, so let’s look at where we stand with it.

For a 2 team tie break, the procedures to determine the winner are as follows:
1. Better winning percentage in games against each other.
2. Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
3. Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
4. Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).

1. Better winning percentage in games against each other: The Rockets and Spurs split their season series 2-2. This is a tie, so move on the next step.

2. Better winning percentage against teams in own division: With today’s loss, the Spurs have a 9-6 divisional record, which is better than the Rockets at 8-6. The Rockets, however, control their own destiny to tie the Spurs in the divisional record. There are only 3 divisional games left for the Spurs and Rockets:

Rockets – Hornets (4/13); @Mavs (4/15)
Spurs - Hornets (4/15)

The Rockets have a Magic Number of 3 to win the divisional tie break. If they win both games and the Spurs lose on April 15, we win the divisional tie break, which gives us the overall tie break. This scenario reduces the Spurs 2 for our 2 wins, another point for their loss, and a fourth point for us taking the tie break. I think we could easily reduce them 6 more and take the Southwest in this scenario.

The Rockets have a Magic Number of 2 to tie the divisional record. If the Rockets win both games, and the Spurs win, we tie. Or if the Rockets win one and lose the other, and the Spurs lose, we tie. This scenario sees the Spurs Magic Number drop 2 for the Rocket win(s) and Spur loss.

The Spurs have a Magic Number of 2 to close us out. If we lose both our games, or if they win their game and we lose one of ours, the Spurs have a better divisional record, and take the tie break. That would reduce their number over us by 2 and an additional point for them taking the tie break.

I feel good about our 2 games. The Hornets play in Houston on the second night of a back-to-back with Dallas, and I like our chances in Dallas on the last day of the season.

I think it’s likely that we’ll wind up tied here and reduce the Spurs the Magic Number by 2 in the process, so we’d have to go on to the next step.

3. Better winning percentage against teams in own conference: The Rockets and Spurs have identical 31-14 Conference Records. We have to assume if we’re using this tie break scenario, the Rockets have made up 1 win over the Spurs on divisional opponents, so that gives the Rockets a built in 1 game lead in the win column of the conference record. We also have to assume the Spurs have lost 1 more game than the Rockets, but both teams have non-conference games left. The Rockets host the Magic, and the Spurs play on the road against the Pacers and Cavs, so it’s still too early to tell who would have the best Conference record if the Spurs and Rockets tied at the end of the season, but the Rockets have a slight edge in this scenario.

It the two teams are still tied, we move on to the next step.

4. Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position): I’m assuming the Suns miss the Playoffs and won’t be tied with the #8 seed.

Currently the Spurs are 10-12 (.455), and the Rockets 12-11 (.522).

Here are the remaining games against Western Conference Playoff teams:
Rockets - @Lakers, Blazers, Hornets, @Mavs
Spurs - Blazers, Jazz, Hornets

There are only 2 ways we arrive at this this tie breaker:
1) The Rockets beat the Hornets AND won in Dallas AND the Spurs beat the Hornets on 4/15. If this is the case, the Rockets need just 1 more victory (@Lakers, Blazers) or Spur loss (Blazers, Jazz) to clinch this tie break. I like our chances at home against the Blazers, and I think the Spurs will have a tough time with Portland. It’s the second game of a back-to-back, and Popovich has been resting Duncan pretty consistently in these games. Definite advantage to the Rockets.
2) The Rockets split their games against the Hornets and in Dallas AND the Spurs lost to the Hornets on 4/15. We’ve already clinched the tie break in this scenario.

I like our overall chances for the tie break after tonight’s games. We still need to make up a game on the Spurs with only a few weeks left, but that seems possible with the Spurs’ compact schedule and them working Manu back into the lineup. Throw out the blowout win over the Clippers, who make every team look good. The loss to the Hornets was more telling.

I’ll keep tie break criteria 3 & 4 updated as the Rockets and Spurs play games down the road. We have to wait until the very end of the season to see how criterion 2 works out, but I really think the Southwest division will be on the line the very last day of the season.

The Rest of Tonight’s Action
The Mavericks needed a win after their brutal home loss to the Nuggets the other night, but they were traveling to Cleveland where the Cavs was 34-1. Dallas battled to an early 15 point lead as the Cavs misfired on offense and defense. Then LeBron and crew turned up the heat and demolished Mavs in the second half. LeBron finished with 24 points and 12 assists, and Joe Smith added 12 points and 13 rebounds for the Cavs, who have won 12 straight and are 2 games up on the Lakers for best record in the NBA. Dirk had 20 points and 7 rebounds, and Little Juan threw down a monstrous 4 points and 2 assists for the Mavs, who lose a Magic Number. Dallas is now 2.5 games behind the Hornets for the #7 seed but 3.5 games up on Phoenix.

The Lakers have been pretty stellar on their road trip so far, but they traveled into a dangerous Atlanta arena with Kobe not feeling well. The Hawks took full advantage of a subpar Lakers team and led nearly the entire game in picking up the win. Mike Bibby led the way for Atlanta with 21 points, and Zaza Pachulia added 11 points and 13 rebounds. Pau Gasol had 21 points and 11 rebounds for the Lakers, while Kobe added 17 points and 8 rebounds. The Lakers lose a Magic Number as well as ground on Cleveland.

On tap for Monday: Knicks at Jazz

 

Ah. I'm in Seattle so I don't ever see the printed copy, but their website says this.

Thanks. I love doing this thread, especially when we clinch for the Playoffs and start knocking off the other teams.