The Guidelines That I Would Use in Trading the #1 Pick

What you guys don't realize is that it's NOT essentially #1 for Odom.


We get Odom, our Point Forward who will improve Steve's role/play, and we get (I would say VERY) good improvement at the C position. Jason Williams is the best player in this draft. In 2 years, Yao Ming can be anywhere from 1st to 10th best player in this draft. So, we don't want to take the risk. We know what Odom and Kandi can do, and it fits our team perfectly. Do you want o spend our BLESSING by taking a risk pick?

If you're not high on Odom, replace him with Miles. Depending on what you think of Miles compared to Odom, throw in our #15 or throw in their #12.

The basic idea is a damn good SF, and an average C rather than Ming, who won't make an impact soon. He won't even start. He might not even be on the active roster. Already, there are fears that he won't be able to take the NBA 82-game pounding. What if he's at the World Cup instead of Training camp?

We won't have him for the training camp, preseason, and according to what I'm hearing, a small part of the season. is he really worth a 1st pick?

Kandi
Griffin
Odom
Mobley
Francis


I think when Francis said we don't need a PG, and he said that he and Mobley play the 2, he may have been implying something. Even if he wasn't, doesn't Odom perfectly fit the bill?

We get a very very good post player. Kandi was the go-to guy in the post over Brand late last season. He delivered. With Mobley, Griffin, and Rice, we won't be lacking 3-pt shooters.


That team can be a contender, and for a VERY long time.

Ming won't even start. How do you expect him to help us to 50 wins? When has a BACKUP C done that?

Don't tell me he can start. He'll be very tired. He lacks conditioning already (see ALL foreign players), and still has to get used tot he quickness of the NBA.

 

I have a similar feeling that Ming may not even be the 8th or 9th best player in the draft. We know that Jay Williams, Butler, and Gooden are pretty much "can't miss" prospects. Even Dunleavy should have a productive career. Remember the '98 draft when Bibby, Vince, Jamison, Nowitski, Pierce, etc. were all passed on for Kandi? There's a sick feeling of that happening again. By the time Ming is indeed developed, there's a strong chance that he'll bolt for NYC, San Fran, or LA.

As for his #'s in the Chinese League....How many points, rebounds, and blocks per game do ya'll think Jason Collier would average over there? If the guy could score 17 a night in the ACC, the Chinese League would be like the local YMCA. How about Kelvin Cato? 20 pts, 15 rebs, 10 blocks- not out of the question. Hmmmm.....I'm starting to think that there's a shortage of big men in China, which is the reason behind Ming's dominance in the Far East.

I hope that the Rox management does their homework. And, no, a 1 hour workout against that goofy dude from Oregon doesn't count.

 

I don't see Memphis giving up that much. More realistic would be the release of next year's obligation in exchange for swaping the No. 1 and No. 4 picks, with the Rockets using the No. 4 to take Caron Butler. Look at what Franchise is saying about MoT and Cato being just fine. Franchise knows that the Rockets are looking for a SF. They don't send Franchise to the draft party if he doesn't already know the menu.

 

I do NOT under ANY circumstance, trade the #1 pick with a main purpose of getting rid of Rice's contract. Using all that value just so you can say "oh, well we'll get out of Rice's contract 2 years early" is nonsensical.

Right now, in all likelihood, I'd keep the #1... Draft an SF at #15, or trade up using KT. Or offer Lewis the chance to get in on a damn good team.

First of all, there's no way you'll receive a center as good as Ming should be via trade. Marcus Camby or Lorenzen Wright? I'll stick with my Ming.

You must get a YOUNG bonafide superstar in return-at the center or SF slot. There is a reason why most consider Ming and Williams 1-2: they are clearly 1-2 in this draft. We don't want Williams, and there's a major drop off if you trade down. Trading down to hypothetically #4 and picking up a solid roleplayer like Battier is not enough.

I'd trade the #1 for Garnett....Minnesota wouldn't. If Chicago wanted to give me Curry to move down to #2, I'd do that too.

Right now, China, Ming, and Ming's agents have said nothing that should deter us.

As for some of the fantasy trades...
Sprewell/#7 for Rice/#1: I wouldn't do it. Sprewell is a 6'5'' SG that doesn't fit this team in age, nor game. This is pure NY hype.
Finley/Lafrentz for Yao+starch: I wouldn't do it. Again, Finley doesn't fit this team.

Eddie Griffin. Yao Ming. Those 4 words have the ability to simply freeze opponents. That could be the BEST shotblocking duo EVER. They can be around for the next 15 years.

There is a difference between Yao and Wang. In the NBA, Wang was a 2nd round pick. He's a decent 7 footer, not considered more. China knows Yao can be #1 overall, bring them the publicity, and he's 7'6''.

I don't know if I'd even do Odom/8/12 for Ming.

 

Conditions 1 & 2 could easily happen. Condition #3 WON'T HAPPEN. Though I still think we could do this:

1. Houston sends #1 and Cato to L.A. for Olowakandi and #12.
2. Houston sends #12, #15, and Taylor (maybe Thomas instead, if they insist) to Seattle for Lewis and one of their centers (Booth, James, Drobnjak, and Oyedeji).

 

Manny/NIKE

I just heard a radio interview in which Jerry Krause and his desire for Ming was discussed. It was stated that Krause tends to fall in love for certain picks. That guy this year happens to be Ming. The point was made that Krause would be willing to trade Curry and the #2 for the #1. Of course we know that we would have to give equal or more cap back to Chicago.

But what is really interesting here is this falls in line with my example above.....

Houston still sends:
Rice & KT and the #1 to the Clips
Taylor, Morris, the #15 pick to the Grizz and forgives the second round obligation owed to us
Collier to Chicago

Clips still send:
Brand & Kandi to Rox
#8 & #12 to Grizz

Grizz still send:
Battier, Swift & #4 to the Rox and forgive the first round obligation owed to them

In addition to that Chicago sends the Clips Curry for not drafting Ming.

(This still works under the CBA)

Everybody walks away with something:

Chicago gets the player it is salivating for....Ming as well as a back up with Collier.

Grizz get to solidify their PF/SF positions and get picks #8, #12 & #15 in a very deep draft and their second round pick back

Rox get Kandi, Brand, Battier and Swift as well as a #4 pick to get either Dunleavy or Butler and their first round pick for next year back

Clips get KT, Curry, Rice (a contract that will be two and out and provide HUGE cap room for them...something Sterling loves) and the point guard they have been coveting for years...Jay Williams.

Everybody wins in this trade. Yes, the Rox do well, but we do have the #1. That is a huge chip.

NIKE,
You can not tell me you would not do this. We would be solid in just about every position two deep.

Francis/Norris
Cat/Battier
Dunleavy or Butler/Griffen
Brand/Swift
Kandi/Cato/Collier

My GOD, thats AWESOME!!

 

I haven't seen any trades for the number one on this bbs that would make the Rockets anything more than a playoff team.

In a few years a Ming-Griffin frountcourt along with a backcourt in it's prime could make us contenders for the title.

title or playoffs. hmmm.

 

My proposal comes out to be the #1, the #15, Cato, and Taylor for Olowakandi, Lewis, and James. I hope you didn't somehow overlook the name Olowakandi in my post. He's the biggest part of the deal. We wouldn't need a first-rounder as well if we already have this 8-main rotation:

G: Francis, Mobley, Norris
F: Griffin, Lewis, Thomas
C: Olowakandi, James

As far as this deal goes: #1 + Rice for Brand, Maggette, #1 pick
The Clippers would NEVER EVER do that! I hope you don't believe they would!

 

KT+Langhi + #1 + #15 for Marion and #9

 

I'd like to keep it simple if we're going to trade down.

#1 and Cato for #3 and Jamison

and does Yao Ming plan to work out at ANY time before the draft?

 

Manny,
Thanks for the major PROPS.

I wasn't really trying to propose or construct a deal....it only worked out that way. Thing is, I ended up having to make a viable deal in order to make my point.

1) I want quality for the #1
2) I want to shed SOME (no way you can dump them all) heavy contracts.
3) Nothing comes without a price. (In this case the #1, #15, a second round pick, Taylor, KT and Morris)

Honestly, I know it is a MONSTER deal, but looking back on it, not one of the teams gets screwed. All do very well....even Chicago!
I tried to not be a homer in putting it together.

You know the more I think about it, Memphis and the Clips walk away in pretty damn good shape. Three first rounders in the top fifteen in a deep draft plus Taylor and Morris. You know Jerry West would be all over that. Clips have little or no fall-off (Brand and KT only have a 4 point differential in scoring/Curry is younger and has more promise than Kandi) and get a NBA ready point (Williams).

How did I do that???

 

<i>"Don't tell me he can start. He'll be very tired. He lacks conditioning already (see ALL foreign players), and still has to get used tot he quickness of the NBA."</i>
-Sane

What? Where did you get this from? Pretty much any rookie that young, that has only played a couple of years since high school, is going to lack conditioning. However, I don't remember hearing any problems with Pau Gasol being tired because of lack of conditioning. A lot of rookies hit a wall at some point, because of the grinding schedule. Look at Eddie. I don't see how Ming would be any different from any of the others as far as conditioning goes. Please don't start making up things about him just because you don't think he should be picked.

Also, Rocket!!, that is a great trade scenario. It does seem too good to be true though. I don't think we'd keep Swift around though, he'd just get in the way of Eddie's development.

 

To all,

I rarely do this type of post, but something is really bothering me about the whole Yao Ming deal. At first I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I think now I have a greater vision as to what is going on and MORE IMPORTANTLY what may happen in the future. I am not talking about predraft future, but long-term.

Here are my thoughts:

1) The whole - is Ming the real deal (read franchise player) - does not really concern me. That is always going to be a gamble with ANY player taken at ANY position in the draft. ABSOLUTELY no player is a sure thing....even Jordan. There are way too many variables to take into account with a player coming into the NBA (EG. Does he have the TRUE NBA skill level?, Is he physical enough?, Can he take the punishment?, Will he get injured?, etc., etc., etc.)
NOTE: This is only from a guarantee of a draft pick perspective...meaning is any draft pick a sure thing. This does not mean that I am unconcerned as to whether Ming has the skills. That is a completely different subject (see the later portion of this post).

2) The issue with the Chinese Government and working out the political particulars also is really a none issue in my book. It is in everybody's best interest to bring Ming to the U.S. in any location. I guarantee this will be worked out post-haste. I further believe as Stern is seeing his Market share/ratings shriking in the U.S., the NBA marketing machine will kick into high gear to promote Ming here (read plenty of TV time) as well as in China.

3) Current influence of Sharks' management and ownership also are a none issue. These guys will fall in line with whatever the Communist Party leadership tells them to do (read: Party line here).

4) There is no doubt in my mind that the amount of money Ming will make is not an issue. Do you really think the Chinese Government gives a rat's ass if Ming makes $5.0 milllion or $6.0 million (other than from an eqo perspective that their pride and joy should make more because he is one of theirs). I think the Chinese Governement will get by just fine without that extra $500K. (Again, they know they have to work within the rules of the NBA, but they will push come renegotiation time whether Ming has earned the big money or not)

MY MAIN CONCERN IS THIS:

What happens to Ming in the future? The ego perspective statement above really gets to the heart of the matter. The Chinese Goverment and the Communist Party are all about play/propaganda. They want the most exposure that will provide the biggest ego boost for the Chinese people. "See how these poor capitalists need our great players to make their game great; See how the great Communist Party can produce better players than the U.S. even at their own game; etc., etc., etc." (fill in your own anticapitalist statement here)

NOTE: I am not bringing this point out as anit-Communist or anti-Chinese. They will do exactly what we would in any sport that is not our national pastime in which we happen to place an athlete (eg. Lance Armstrong - now we are at the top of the cycling world with a few Tour wins....yea right! Want to buy a bridge in Brooklyn?).

The guys in the Chinese Government are smart. They know they have to play by the NBA rules regarding the draft. But five years from now they own their own future with Ming. He is as free as a bird to go to any team he wishes. If he is the real deal and he does not get the propaganda/play (not playing time) that they desire. Houston will be nothing more that a training ground for Ming because he will be NY or LA bound in a heartbeat.
The only caveat to this will be if we win championships within our allotted timeframe (5 years of Ming). Then Ming is staying put. (See the Americans needed our man to GIVE them a championship) Though they know this is not 100% accurate, it will play very well back home.

The point of all this is: Will Ming Really ever be ours? Will the eye always be on the big market prize? Will Ming answer to us or Chinese officials?

These more sublime issues and guestions are what have been bothering me. They took me awhile to figure out. Combine these with the number one question, "Does Ming HAVE the skills?" and that leaves me with only one thought..... TRADE. This is one of the few times that I would ever even think of trading a #1, but I honestly believe that this is one of the few times that the pick is worth more in trade value than draft value. The sole reason for this is because we hit the jackpot on the perfect draft year. There are two clear #1 draft picks and many teams are salivating over one or the other. Chicago/GS want Ming; the Clips wants Williams; etc.

We can get so much more than most are hoping for (No not Duncan, Kobe, Shaq or any other frachise player). We could easily combine picks and players to make us rock solid for years and give us a legitimate shot at several championships. We already have two players that could lead us to a championship (Francis and Griffen) once they mature and are surrounded by other filler players. We have the opportunity to not just get those filler players, but add one maybe two other palyers that reach the quality level of Francis and Griffen. What if we added Brand or Battie and drafted a Dunleavy or Butler with a later pick. Collectively, we would be so much better off. Yes, we can afford to make the MING mistake (if it is one) and continue down our corrent path, but we can most definitely leap frog our improvement time table (similar to acquiring Francis and Griffen) to a greater extent with a series of quality trades. (See my earlier post in this thread for a few examples)

There....
Okay, I feel purged now.
Thanks for lending me ya'll's eyes for a while.

Whatever happens......

GO ROCKETS!!!



Clutch,
As I have said many times before, thanks again for the forum.

Great job!

 

I say trade Ming, Rice, and MoTay for Kobe, Shaq, Phil Jackson, Tyra Banks, Jesus Christ, War Emblem, and Seabiscuit.


RealGM says it works just fine.