http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/tuesday/sports_c30ef837c1c4a139008d.html Draft is deep but lacks immediate impact player By Israel Gutierrez, Palm Beach Post Staff Writer Tuesday, May 14, 2002 There are about 50 underclassmen expected to remain in this year's NBA Draft. Considering there are only 57 spots in the two-round draft, that would seem like the makings of a very deep class. But given the overall weakness of this year's senior class, it could just balance out what turns out to be an average draft. Truth is, it's quite difficult to estimate the quality of the group that will be drafted on June 26. That's because the NBA will continue its trend of drafting based on potential and not a player's ability to contribute immediately. And that practice has made it harder to judge a draft class before the players actually hit an NBA floor. "The real test of the draft isn't for a couple of years down the road when players have developed and you've really seen what kind of contribution they can make to teams," Miami Heat General Manager Randy Pfund said. But most still believe that, whether based on potential or their instant-impact ability, there will be a lot to choose from this year. "It's a pretty deep draft because of all the underclassmen coming out," draft expert Chris Monter said. "Obviously if you're an NBA team and you hear (Duke junior) Mike Dunleavy's coming out, that means one more good player in the lottery. Miami, if they're going to be drafting 10, that's going to push another player down to that spot." The early favorites for the top three selections are Duke guard Jason Williams, Chinese center Yao Ming and Kansas forward Drew Gooden. While all three would slightly improve any team that drafts them, many believe no one in the current draft class comes with the franchise-player tag already applied. The closest thing to a sure thing would be Williams, who showed in three years with Duke that he was a notch above his competition. But even Williams, who has been compared to Isiah Thomas and Stephon Marbury, has critics who say he spent too much time playing the shooting guard at Duke and may have trouble sliding back into the point guard role in the NBA. They also question Williams' leadership qualities and free-throw shooting. "I think Jason Williams will have a chance to be maybe one of the best rookies, but again, how many impact players have there been that have been 6-1, 6-2?" Monter said. "I think he has all-star potential, but even Isiah, before he got a better supporting cast around him, they weren't a winning team." David Fredman, an assistant general manager with the Nuggets who has 28 years of experience in the league, agrees that Williams likely wouldn't single-handedly raise a lottery team into the playoffs in a short period. "I was talking to another lottery team executive and we were discussing Jason Williams and he said, 'Well, some people on my staff tell me he could mean 10 more wins for us,' " Fredman said. "I said, 'That's a big statement. I don't know, if you look at what history tells you with the past drafts.' But on the other hand there is always very good players that come out of the draft, and that's the key in building." That again will likely be the case with this draft. The consensus top seven of Ming, Williams, Gooden, Dunleavy, junior college forward Qyntel Woods, Connecticut's Caron Butler, Memphis' Dajuan Wagner and Maryland's Chris Wilcox all should be immediate contributors. And behind them is a fairly strong group that includes several foreign players and a few high school players that add quality depth. With the success of foreign players such as Peja Stojakovic, Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker and this year's Rookie of the Year Pau Gasol, more teams will be willing to take chances with overseas players. This year could be the deepest as far as foreign talent is concerned with Nickoloz Tskitishvili, a Nowitzki-like, 19-year-old, 6-foot-11 forward from the Republic of Georgia, Brazilian forward Maybyner Hilario, Slovenian forward Bostjan Nachbar, Argentinian forward Luis Scola, guard Juan Carlos Navarro of Spain and Czech guard Jiri Welsch all being intriguing prospects. As for high school players, which made up four of the eight selections last year, there isn't much to get excited about beyond Orlando forward Amare Stoudemire, who is projected as a late-lottery pick. "Obviously the feeling is that last year was kind of an anomaly," Monter said. "Many people thought that was one of the best big-man classes ever with all those players being 6-10 or bigger. This year, the three main high school players, Amare Stoudemire, Lenny Cooke and DeAngelo Collins... you have three players that have a lot of ability, but they're not 6-10. That's what the attraction was with these guys for last year." Unlike last year, there won't be many polished, high-quality college seniors like Shane Battier to fortify the talent pool. The top projected seniors include Fresno State's Melvin Ely, Gonzaga's Dan Dickau and Kentucky forward Tayshaun Prince, all of whom are projected as mid-to-late first rounders. None of the them are expected to provide big impacts. But then again, neither are any of the projected top picks -- at least not right away. "A favorite word of NBA people is upside, you're looking for upside on some of these guys. That makes it a little bit more difficult," Fredman said. "I think it's a deep draft talent-wise. However, history tells me that there's a big difference between talented athletes and basketball players. Sometimes the most talented athletes don't turn out to be the best players."
