Magic Numbers against the Western Conference

<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp; TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number &nbsp;Diff</B>
&nbsp;1&nbsp;Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;33-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;2&nbsp;Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-4&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;27-10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;22</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;3&nbsp;Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-5&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;26-11
&nbsp;4&nbsp;Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;28-11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;19</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;5&nbsp;Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;39-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-3&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;23-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;6&nbsp;Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;39-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;19</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;7&nbsp;Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;18</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
&nbsp;8&nbsp;Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;38-25&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6-4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;5-7&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;20-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;17</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
&nbsp;9&nbsp;Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;34-29&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;20-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
10&nbsp;Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;21-42&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12-23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Vanquished</B>
11&nbsp;Wolves&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;18-44&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1-9&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-30&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Lobotomized</B>

* Indicates the Tie Break is final

For more information on the Magic Number Chart or about seeding or tie break rules, read the FAQ

<B>Clinched the #9 seed</B>

Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 8</B>.

I've got a sick, pregnant wife, and a 15 month old who spiked a 101 fever right after the game, so apologies in advance if this post is a bit disjointed.

It was a great day for the Rockets, and an interesting day for the rest of the Western Conference. We’re diving into some wonky tie breaking theory in this edition, so consult the FAQ if you need some refreshers.

Make it 12 straight home victories. This was a Probable game that Rockets could not afford to lose, and they never had the outcome in doubt as they crushed the Grizzlies. Yao Ming was a beast with 24 points on 9-13 shooting, 17 rebounds, and 3 blocks while Scola racked up another double-double with 18 points and 14 rebounds. Kyle Lowry is making a solid case to be the starter with 9 assists and 8 points, and Carl Landry was a monster defensively with 4 blocks. This was a solid victory (except for garbage time. I’m looking at you Von Wafer and Brian Cook), and I hope the Rockets bring this kind of intensity the rest of the season. All Magic Numbers drop 1.

The standings continue to be volatile. We started the day at #5, dropped to #6 after the Jazz-Raptors game, and finished up the day at #3. Seeds 3-7 are within 1 game of each other. It’s going to be a craaaazy finish. It’s looking increasingly likely that we will have at least a 3 team tie when the dust settles. It is imperative for the Rockets to pocket as many tie breaks as we can possibly accumulate. Winning the head-to-head series is crucial for 2 team tie breaks and will help immensely in multiple team tie breaks. We have at least a .500 record against every team except the Lakers (and we’re not getting into a tie break with them). A single victory clinches a 3-1 record over the Jazz, Mavs, and Nuggets, and a home win would make us 2-1 over the Blazers. We’re 1-1 against the Spurs and Hornets with home and away games remaining against each. In the event of 3 or more teams tying, the seeding order is determined by the cumulative record of teams tied against one another (See Post 193 for the latest head-to-head records). Our solid record against Contenders will really help us rise to the top of this scenario, and each victory over a Contender down the stretch only helps our chances.

As a crazy example: if the Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz, Blazers, and Hornets wound up in a 5 way tie at the end of the season, their current cumulative records against each other would be:
Jazz: 7-4
Rockets: 6-4
Hornets: 5-6
Blazers: 5-7
Nuggets: 5-7

We’d be the #4 seed and draw the #5 Hornets, but would lose the 2 team tie break due to divisional record and would open on the road. Of course if we beat the Nuggets tomorrow, we’d be the #3 seed and draw the #6 Blazers at home. There are billions of scenarios right now. As we get closer to the end of the season, the possibilities will come more into focus and we can narrow down specific outcomes.

With our win tonight, we also push our division record to 6-5, which isn’t great but at least keeps us within shouting distance of the Spurs (8-4) and Hornets (6-3) and ahead of the Mavs (5-7) in the case of a 2 team tie break.

The remaining intra-division schedules for the Southwest Division Contenders:
Rockets: Spurs, @Hornets, @Spurs, Hornets, @Mavs
Spurs: @Rockets, Rockets, @Hornets, Hornets
Hornets: Rockets, Grizz, Spurs, @Mavs, Mavs, @Rockets, Spurs
Mavs: @Grizz, Hornets, @Hornets, Rockets

It’ll be tough, but not impossible to catch the Spurs or Hornets with our division record. If we wound up tied and splitting the head-to-head, the tie break goes to division record then conference record. Once again those two losses to the Grizzlies earlier this year would probably cost us. We can still clinch tie breaks over the Spurs, Mavs, and Hornets by winning the remainder of our games against them.

Enough tie break theory, back to Sunday’s games.

Both the Spurs and Suns had lost 3 straight games against Contenders when they met up in San Antonio on Sunday. Tony Parker had another stellar game with 30 points and 9 assists, including 12 in the fourth, to lead the Spurs to a 103-98 victory. Tim Duncan had a strong game with 17 points and 15 rebounds, and Roger Mason chipped in 18 points. Steve Nash battled hard with 23 points and 11 assists in a losing effort. The Suns lose an additional Magic Number. Phoenix falls to 1-4 on their 7GoD stretch and are now 4 full games out of the Playoffs. The Suns return to Phoenix for a must-win game against Dallas on Tuesday. The two teams are split 1-1 right now with 2 games remaining, and the Suns need both of these for the tie breaker and to make up ground on Dallas. It’s not crisis mode yet for Phoenix, but it will be if they lose Tuesday. We’re now 6.5 games up on Phoenix with the tie break and only 17 games to play. The Rockets haven’t clinched a Playoff spot yet, but it seems just a matter of time.

The Jazz had won 10 straight and were facing the second worst team in the East, but they’re a terrible road team and were without Carlos Boozer. The Raptors kept it close through three quarters, but a flop-filled fourth and poor play down the stretch by Toronto down the stretch put the kibosh on a Raptor upset. Deron William had 25 points and 9 assists and Kyle Korver had 20 points and 8 rebounds for the Jazz, who are now on an 11 game winning streak and have taken the division lead. Chris Bosh had 30 points and 10 rebounds in the loss.

Let there be no doubt. They are the Enver Nuggets. The Nuggets have had the Northwest division lead all season, and they barely held onto it after facing the Blazers and Utah this past week. With a tough game against the Rockets looming on Monday, the Nuggets traveled to Suckramento to face the league-worst Kings. Enver definitely proved they have no defense and no consistency in dropping a 114-106 loss to the Kings. Carmelo Anthony had 32 points and 7 assists, and Chauncey Billups added 22 points and 8 assists. The loss drops the Nuggets all the way to the #7 ssed, and they lose an additional Magic Number.

The Rockets get to square off against another Contender Monday when the they travel to Enver. This game is huge for the Rockets. We are currently 2-1 against Enver and can clinch a tie break over them with a victory. Doing so would reduce their Magic Number by 3 and give us an enormous lift towards securing home court in the first round. If we lose, it all comes down to the Conference Record, where we’re neck and neck. The next tie break would be head-to-head against all Playoff Contenders where we have a 9-8 record compared to 11-10 for the Nuggets. So I’d give us a slight edge to winning the tie break either way, but it would be a lot nicer to secure it tomorrow.

I think this is a game we should win. The Nuggets haven’t been playing well lately (Exhibit 1: Loss to Kings). Enver is in a tight race for their division so they should bring their best effort after the egg they laid tonight, but I like having Artest and Battier to cover Carmelo. If their effort against LeBron was any indication, they could really force him into a bad game. Usually as Carmelo goes, the Nuggets go.

Also on tap for Monday: Hornets at Hawks, Wizards at Wolves, Lakers at Blazers

 

Thanks. I don't know why that formula was off. It's fixed in the original post. Good catch.

 

Man, I'm off today. Good catch.

I'm going to sleep. Hopefully a good night of rest will clear my head.