An Objective Look at Battier's Shocking Decline in Offense and Yao Turnover Horrors

I wonder how many of Yao's turnovers can be attributed to offensive fouls.

 

I say give Yao a break on the turnovers. Yes, I want to pull my hair out every time he brings the ball down and gets it stripped as he makes his move to the middle of the paint, but oh well. He's currently the only player on the roster that teams consistently have to double/triple team. In fact, he's one of the only post players in the league that you can say that about.

Also, don't forget that offensive fouls count as turnovers, and we all know how unfairly Yao is treated in that regard.

EDIT: thelasik made that last point for me.

 

nice work on the Battier issue...i cant wait until someone claims battier still sucks because he wasn't born with Yao's shooting touch, Landrys hops, or Scola's crafty moves...

 

Thank you !

Finally someone that realizes Battier's scoring is down because he is taking less shots and giving those to more efficient players.

Having a guy who KNOWS HIS ROLE is crucial.

Punk the naysayers.

DD

 

At least Yao doesn't have his "purse" stolen as much as he used too. You know when someone comes around from the weak side and just grabs his purse and runs. It used to happen at least twice a game...I think I only saw it a couple of times this year.

 

I agree. I remember particularly from about '04 to '06 I would scream at Yao/at the TV many times because of Yao's turnover tendencies... he really seems to have gotten better about it.

Being as large as he is, he'll never have the coordination that some people demand of him, so we'll have to take the good with the bad. I think he has done an excellent job at limiting the bad to the point that he can - and this is coming from someone who was branded as a 'Yao hater' a few seasons ago.

 

Excellent post and very interesting information.

 

I still want Shane to take those open 3 balls, and I remember him at least once passing up the shot when he was open and shot clock was winding down for the Suns game.

It's one thing to give your share of shots to better scorers, it's another to be getting gunshy.

 

This is true - how about that game (was it Utah, Chicago? I can't remember) where Barry and Battier seemed particularly interested in playing hot potato at the top of the key rather than shooting. It made me quite frustrated.

 

Great post, Carl Herrera. Battier's decrease in offensive production (points per game) can be explained by the fact that he's playing fewer minutes and taking less shots, but the fact that his two point, three point, and true shooting percentages are all declining every year since he's been with the Rockets shows that he is degrading offensively. The fact that the Rockets offensive production per possession is better than it was last season can be attributed to a better and deeper bench and with the improved play of Scola and Landry and in the reduction of minutes of players such as Chuck Hayes. I think Hayes no longer being in the starting lineup is one of the primary reason for the team's increased offensive production.

 

Great post and analysis!!

 

The Rockets have been a mediocre offensive team for years, and compared to other Western Conference playoff teams (and, really, that's the barometer by which we should be measuring ourselves) we have been well below average.

You're right, as a team our offense may be better. But we're still a below average offensive team relative to the competition we're going to be facing in the playoffs ... assuming we get there. The argument against Battier is that he drags the offense down, and without 5 guys who are legitimate scoring threats the Rockets will never be a really good offensive team. Daryl Morey said before the season that if we want to legitimately contend we need to be a top 10 offensive team. Is that possible with Battier getting 30+ minutes a game? It's never happened yet for him, so I think the jury is still out.

As for Yao and the turnovers, I've always felt that a Yao-centric offense will be turnover-prone. Hopefully we can turn that around the rest of this season. This is what 82games shows over the last several years for team turnovers with Yao On and Off the floor:

Code:

season     On      Off         Net
0809       14      13      between +0 and +2
0708       14      12      between +1 and +3
0607       14      13      between +0 and +2
0506       14      12      between +1 and +3
0405       14      12      between +1 and +3

Note that 82games rounds those team turnovers per 100 possession to the nearest whole number. So we need to understand the Net On/Off in terms of a range. E.g. for 08/09, at best its 13.5 on and 13.49 off, and at worst its 14.49 on and 12.5 off. So, with equal probability, the difference is somewhere between +0 and +2.

What's remarkable to me is that, consistently, the team turnover rate has been higher with Yao on the floor for a number of seasons. This is unusual -- teams usually play more under control and with a greater comfort level when their primary offensive players on the court. So, one would generally expect the turnovers to be less. But with Yao, year after year, we see the opposite trend. The team turnover-rate last season illustrates this (5-game moving average):



Note how the turnover-rate fluctuates in response to Tracy going out last season in mid-December (offense becomes more Yao-centric), Tracy returning, and then Yao going out. In my opinion, that was not a coincidence.

 

When the rox get 100 possesions in a game, then i'll believe per 100 possesion stuff. The rox avg 98ppg, last year they were at 97 and some change and the yr before also. The yr hayes was starting, they scored more points than when howard was in. What does that mean. I can accept when a guy does research and brings numbers back to the table, but the eye in the sky dont lie. Durvasa who is great at pulling stats pulled up a few about the rox defense. I may not go and reseasrch like he do and i'm glad he does that and we always have great, no name calling agreements or disagreements. When i said it seems like the rox give up layups and miss a few more than they make, he researched and came back with real numbers. I may be too lazy or not computer inclined to do charts and stuff, but i know what my eyes see. With battier, i see his man sinking in yao's lap. I also see his pattern of ineffectiveness on the offensive end. DD like to call tracy and ron out as ball stoppers, but he never callas out shane for failing to rub or curl on a screen. He never calls shane out when his man turns his head and shane" high bbiq" battier runs to the opposite corner instead of walking to the front of the rim or stopping for a short jumper. Watch the games, focus on battier and tell me how many scoring chances he blow because he's not paying attention or just dont want to run the offense through. Then bring the chart back. I know DD know basketball too because he used to do play by play, so he's no dummy, yet he just turns a bllind eye to defend shane.

 

I slide down this thread and I ask myself,

WTF IS THIS? ROCKETS CALCULUS?

Hehe, anyway, I'm not gonna read it thoroughly but I'm impressed, fosho.

 

To me, it's very understandable Yao's TO rate per 100 possesion goes up this year. The major reason is he's required to take higher percentage shots. The percentage his turnaround jump shots are much less, instead, he dribble to the middle for higer percentage jump hooks.

It's natural that the closer you get to the hoop, the more TO you gets, cause there are more hands around that area, and in Yao's case, more flops against him as well.

And team with post player as their 1st offensive option will have the same problem, but making higher percentage shots and create more open looks for teammates will be more than enough to offset that. As it showed by 82games.com, when Yao's on the court, our offense is much better points wise and FG% wise.

 

I totally agree about Battier. However, the question I have about Yao's turnovers is whether the mere fact of Yao getting touches (and a potentially higher scoring efficiency) offsets the higher turnover rate. I haven't studied the stats, but I would guess yes.

If we could look at the points-per-posession when Yao touches the ball versus the points-per posession when Yao does not touch the ball, perhaps that would answer the question.

 

Despite a lot people say Yao has passed his peak, I feel this season Yao actually is more powerful than before. He no longer requires ball in his hands that much, his presense on the court alone attracts more attention by defense. He helps the team on offense even without touches. The reason Brooks and Artest could get to the hoops easily against Suns at the end of game was Shaq had to keep close with Yao, left their inside defense wide open.

 

It has nothing to do with "100 possessions". You can look at points scored per 1 possession, or 2 possessions, or 47 possessions. It's the exact same information. 100 is just a nice, round number. The average game has close to 90 possessions, so if you like we could look at everything in terms of that. But it really doesn't matter.

What it means is that Chuck Hayes wasn't the liability people portrayed him to be, and Juwan Howard was not a far greater offensive player like some people thought. Juwan was an inefficient low post scorer, he did not get to the line at a high rate, and he shot mid-40s from the field without even being able to hit 3-pointers. That's poor, poor offensive production. We can now count on Scola and Landry to do everything Juwan did and more, while they'll shoot over 55% from the field for us and be much stronger on the boards.

The decision to start Chuck that year was 100% correct, and that's what the evidence shows. Benching him would have solved absolutely nothing, when the alternative is more Juwan. The Rockets simply had poor depth at PF that year, and they met a good Utah team in the playoffs that presented a number of matchup problems (and they still do). As poor as you think Chuck Hayes played in that playoff series, Juwan Howard was even more abysmal.

There is never any conflict between factual numbers and truth. It seems to me that you shun "stats", but it is nothing but recorded, objective information. Sometimes we can attach too much importance to certain facts, or draw poor conclusions, or make bad assumptions about what the facts suggest. But, ultimately, any argument should be based on facts, and some type of logical progression based on those facts. Surely you agree.

 

And by flops!