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Kenny Thomas and his trade value...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JAG, May 5, 2002.

  1. CriscoKidd

    CriscoKidd Member

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    Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think Corliss and Malik are in KT's class. Corliss and Malik are ideal hustle guys to play against weaker and tired comp as subs. KT is suited as a good super sub as well, but can also step up and give good play in starting minutes as well. No way in hell would I trade KT for either of those guys straight up.

    Several teams would benefit from having him as a starter imo.

    Orlando, Boston, Philly, Washington(at least til Kwame develops), Milwaulkee(since Mase the scapegoat will probly be gone), Atlanta, Cleveland, Utah(ugh, but very soon they will need everything), Seattle(if they finally get rid of Baker), and Phoenix.

    Even more would benefit with him as a sub.

    KT wont get us a stud player for a one-on-one trade, but he could maybe land us a decent sf or help us get a little better talent by combining him with one of the picks for a better pick/player.
     
  2. Sane

    Sane Member

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    That's exactly what I was going to say CriscoKidd.

    For a team like the Magic, who don't want big contracts, and lack depth up front, KT can start. If Ho Grant and Ewing retire, what do they have up front? Declerq, Hunter, and Don Reid. KT can easily be the starter there. One, it's in the East. Two, they don't have anyone, and don't want to pay up.

    For example. For them to get some cheap help, they could get:

    KT
    #15 (Chris Marcus/Amare Stoudamire)
    Collier (worthless, but to balance salaries)
    2 2nd rounders (Juan Carlos Navarro & Maddox or Jiri Welsch)


    Steven Hunter/Declerq/Reid/Collier
    KT/Amare Stoudamire/Garritty
    Grant Hill/Mike Miller/Garritty
    T-Mac/Navarro
    Armstrong/Hudson/Maddox

    What woukld they give for this?

    That team is a bit too young though.
     
  3. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    Jeff is right. Crisco is correct on setting people straight on KT and what he can do. Williamson have a better post game and that is it. Although Rudy called him a raging bull, he has a lot more finesse than Rose. Jag is wrong in his overall appraisal of KT and the role he can play in effecting a fair and beneficial trade to the rockets. Last week, I proposed a trade of #15 and KT for Miami's or Pheonix's. I do not see how that is a bad trade assuming all the cap issues could have been worked out. That proposal does not show that I overrate KT as a player and/or as a commodity. JAG, in addition, your post did not take into consideration the financial aspects which would probably be the most critical reason for his trade if he gets traded.
     
  4. JAG

    JAG Member

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    I am always at a loss when people use terms like "correct" and "wrong" about opinions...Please be a little more specific in how my opinion of Thomas' trade value is "wrong", or do you just mean that our opinions differ? Also, when the guy makes a low salary, but his contract is only for 1 year, I think the financial considerations are pretty limited...They will either get decent value, but for only 1 year, then be in a Moochie situation, or they will be able to clear off, what, less than 2 mill, from there cap space...hardly of significant value. Moreover, low contracts are of even less significance in the NBA, in that you have to get and receive roughly the same salary in trades, therefore we would get back another low salary...
     
    #24 JAG, May 6, 2002
    Last edited: May 6, 2002
  5. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    Kenny Thomas is and always will be a very average NBA player. I think comparing him to guys like Corliss and Malik is pretty fair. You guys who say that KT is so much better than those guys are going a little overboard. He may have good value right now because he doesnt make much money and he is coming off a decent year. Corlilss Williamson, Malik Rose, Pat Garrity, Darvin Ham, Eric Williams et al would have all produced similar numbers in the same role.

    My point is, KT's value is in his contract a lot moreso than in his talent.
     
  6. DearRock

    DearRock Member

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    JAG, the financial considerations are not about how low his current salary is. It is more to do with him being on the verge of a big payday which the rockets may not be able to meet. Since we have about $20M tied up in contracts for Rice, Cato and MoT, and the team is on the verge of extending Wink's contract, it is a major financial consideration to say give KT MoT's kind of money, for instance. Since, one, we have to do something or face the possibility of losing him next year without much in return; and two, we will have a glot of the forward spots by the time draft is finished, it makes since to move him now. I do not want Rose or anyone else in return. I just want the draft picks. If we send #15 and KT to someone for a top 10 pick, we would have given ourselves two shots at greater talent and not have to pay KT type money at the moment. It is kinda like what the Clippers have done, but we are doing it on a much smaller scale. If MoT and Rice comes back strong, then we will not miss KT; and certainly the addition of two talented players would definitely ensure we forget KT.
     
  7. JAG

    JAG Member

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    I agree that KT poses a potential financial dilema, and that that makes the incentive to trade him greater...however, the same impending contract makes his trade value, in terms of his contract status, less appealing to other teams, as opposed to more so, which some have maintained...

    Ultimately, in terms of trade value, we have an overachieving, undersized power forward who can score and rebound a bit, isn't really suited to starting for a good team, is in the final year of his contract, and doesn't offer much cap relief when it expires, but probably will expect a fairly significant raise...I just don't see the high trade value...
     
  8. Sane

    Sane Member

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    Like I said, Orlando would love to have him right about now. Because they don't want to deal with a big contract, but they have a roster spot. So they use him for a year, then let him walk. Simple. Why do you find it so hard to take in?

    You can be pessimistic about him. But let me make him look real great :


    Young, steadily improving player. MIP candidate, has expereince behin Charles Barkley. Great work ethic by evidence of his summer conditioning, and is willing to do whatever the coach says. Also, has a very small contract that will expire in a year, after which, the team can make a decision on whether or not he's worth keeping at the price he's asking. Can score, rebound, and puts full effort into defense. Has drawn compliments from superstars like Tim Duncan and Gary Payton. Can undoubtedly be one of the better 6th men in the league, and will produce in the given time.


    How does that sound?
     
  9. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Sounds good! Maybe we should keep him!:p
     
  10. TheFreak

    TheFreak Member

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    "If KT is starting for you, you're probably not a good team"

    I disagree with this. Is KT better than Samaki Walker? Eduardo Najera? Both those guys are starting for very good teams.
     
  11. Pat

    Pat Member

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    Both of those guys are starters like Chuckie Borwn was a starter, or Kenny Smith was a starter. When I say starter I mean the best player at that position on the team, and commands most of the minutes.
     
  12. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Personally, I think KT is better than Corliss or Malik. KT is far more mobile and has better range than Corliss (Corliss just has an edge offensively in the paint), and is just much more refined offensively than Malik (who has an edge of defensing 4's over KT, but that is it).

    KT stacks up very well against other forwards in the East that started some games this year. KT compares well (not saying he is better than) with Jerome Willliams, Tyronne Hill, Micheal Curry, or Anthony Mason. KT is clearly better than say Pat Garrity, Horace Grant, Demarr Johnson, Erik Williams, Matt Harspring, Kurt Thomas, Brian Grant, Kendall Gill, Chuck Witherspoon, or Popeye Jones--all of whom started some games for their team at the 3 or 4 this year.

    There are only a handful of Eastern 4s or 3/4 combinations he doesn't stack up well with at all--perhaps only Oneal, K-Mart, A. Davis, Mash, SAR, Glen Robinson, & A. Walker.

    The following Eastern teams would have a significantly better starting 5 with KT filling one of their 2 forward spots: Atl, Miami, Orlando, Wash & New York. The following teams might have a better starting unit with KT playing the 3 or 4 (depending on the team)--Chic, Clev, Det, Milw, Torn, Boston, & Phily. If I was in the front office of any of these Eastern teams I would try to get Kenny Thomas on my team this offseason. I would be willing to use a middle first rounder for him (somewhere between a 12-17 pick for instance) or a comparably valued player in a position I have depth in. That isn't great value, but it is still a solid commodity.
     
  13. JAG

    JAG Member

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    " Why do you find it so hard to take in?"

    I know this may come as a shock to you, but there is a distinction between not understanding your pearls of basketball wisdom, and disagreeing with you...and I think it's pretty ignorant to assume the former.

    As for the rest of your post...

    I accounted for the character traits you accurately assign to KT by calling him "overachieving", which is virtually synonomous with "great work ethic," coachable, etc...In terms of talent, esteem, etc, let's compare him to a similar, but probably more highly regarded player...Corliss Williamson. Also a character guy, who can score and rebound, tries on D,improved this year, has recieved many accolades, IS one of the better 6th men right now, and produces given the right situation....but how much would you be willing to trade for him? Not much, I'm betting...and why not? Because his physical limitations mean that he has to be in a very specific role to perform...his weaknesses are the kind which become more apparent the more he plays, and he doesn't add much beyond scoring and decent boardwork... because he is seen to have pretty much peaked, in terms of performance, and any time you pay for a player at their peak, you're probably going to lose on the deal, as if you pay dollar for dollar based on his most recent performance, he will not be worth that much any more pretty soon...because there are lots of Trent and Williamson and Weatherspoon and Rose and Thomas types out there to be had, and how much do these guys usually bring in return?

    When you acquire a guy, what you pay for him has as much to do with what he can't do as what he can, and the balance between the two, because if the guy is going to see significant minutes, you can bet that other coaches are going to try and exploit the weaknesses...and Kenny isn't dominant enough at scoring or rebounding to make up for his weaknesses, at least not to the extent that he's a great trade commodity...

    And I think it's a stretch to assume he "undoubtedly" can be one of the top 6th men...top what, 5? 10? Anyways, most top 6th men, over a reasonable period, have a dominant specific skill ( shooters a la Dell Curry, Dale Ellis, etc..scorers, a la Vinnie Johnson, Toni Kukoc, etc..defenders a la Dennis Rodman, Michael Cooper, etc..) or they are good enough all around to start for most teams, but just happen to be redundant with their current team, like Tim Thomas in Milwaukee, or Cassell was here...I'm not sure that Kenny is the get hot fast type, nor is he the all-arounder who can fit in quickly without needing to score....I will say that there is a very good chance that he could be a very good bench player for a good team, but "undoubtedly" one of the best? Not so sure...
     
  14. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Jag, I think personaly think KT is a slightly better overall and better starter material for the EC than Corliss (has some strengths but more weaknesses because he is less versatile player), but let's table this for now.

    What do you think KT would be worth in an average draft?

    5 pick?
    10 pick?
    15 pick?
    20 pick?
    25 pick?
    30 pick?

    Then we can see how off we are in our assessed value of him (in terms of picks or comparable players at that pick).
     
  15. JAG

    JAG Member

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    I would say, were he not in the last year of his contract, he'd be worth somewhere between 15-20, but his one and out option drops him to 20-25...I think he's a solid, consistent role player, and that's mostly what you can hope for at 20-25...this draft being deep but not top heavy probably cements him in the latter range...

    Again, it would depend on the other team's needs...for example, contrary to what someone said earlier, I can say that Toronto would have virtually NO interest in Thomas, unless there is a significant shakeup...They are already pretty deep at the 3-4 spots ( Jerome Williams, Keon Clark, Antonio Davis, Mo-Pete, etc.) , and what they might be looking for he isn't...namely a clear cut no. 2 scorer behind Carter...Also, Thomas' isolate and try to beat the other guy style doesn't fit, which is why Williamson didn't work.
     
  16. Sane

    Sane Member

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    How could you say him being in his last year is a bad thing?

    They can just let him walk.

    I think we can get something like #18, #19, or #20.


    KT and the #15, can get us number 10 probably. Probably a team that's too high above the cap, and is struggling to fill the roster. Magic? Heat? Wolves possibly?
     
  17. JAG

    JAG Member

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    This last year thing seems very misunderstood to me..it IS a big deal if you can acquire a big contract which is running out...say you give up 8 mil a year in a trade, get back 8.5, but this is the last year of the 8.5...cause you then clear up that much cap room...However, if the guy has a very low salary, like KT, it's actually a disadvantage in the last year, in terms of trade, for 2 reasons...

    1) If it's just a one and done thing, you only clear, what, 1.8 off your cap? So you give up trade value for a guy you get 1 year out of, and very little cap relief when he leaves...

    2) If you re-sign him, you're gaining salary, not losing any...In order to trade for KT, a team has to send back a roughly equivalent salary, meaning around 1.8...then have to raise him to, what, 4.5...5.., to keep him. In terms of salary cap, you lose...

    This idea of a guy's last year being equal to value has really gotten misapplied, imo, as it's only actually significant if the cap relief offsets the potential loss of talent if/when he walks...Again, if they "just let him walk", how much trade value does 1 year of Kenny Thomas have? Not a whole lot, I'd say...
     
    #37 JAG, May 6, 2002
    Last edited: May 6, 2002
  18. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    I am not that far with your initial statement, maybe 2 slots off (more like between 13-17). But I think having a shorter and cheap contract almost never works against a trade, maybe not as good as a cheaper long term deal, but still not a negative. The team he goes to has a significant advantage in resigning him because we can agree teams that have max cap room would be looking for a step higher player.

    You are right Toronto would not have interest unless a major shake up is in order. With Carter back, Jerome Williams (a more capable defensive less capable offensive version of KT) and possibly Pete could move to the bench and KT wouldn't add much and might be more of a problem then a help ala Corliss. I had been looking at their most recent line-up and that obviously ignores major pieces. Nonetheless it leaves 10 or so EC teams that could really benefit from the services of Kenny Thomas.
     
  19. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Here are the #13-#17 picks over the last 5 years:

    #13 RJeff Alexander Magette Clark DA
    #14 T Murphy Cleaves Avery MD MoT
    #15 Hunter Collier Weis Harspring Cato
    #16 Haston Turkgl Artest BDrew Knight
    #17 Bradley Mason Bowder Nest. JTaylor

    KT who went #22 in 99 (Magette, Avery, Weis, Artest and Bowder went 13-17) by my accounts is a better player/prospect than say 11, about equal to 6, and less valuable than 8. Only the #13 slot to me is consistently better/more talented. Thus I would peg him as worth something like a #14 or #15 in an average year. I would not accept a 17+ pick alone for him unless it was a really rich draft.
     
  20. NJRocket

    NJRocket Member

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    Look...Im not going to sit and compare guys like KT and Malik/Corliss...if you cant see that all 3 of those guys are VERY AVERAGE players AT BEST, then I dont know what to tell you.

    He is not nearly as good of a rebounder/defender as Jerome Williams or Brian Grant. If you think he is even on the same planet as Kurt Thomas then you have never watched a Knick game. He doesnt come close to Anthony Mason in any aspect of the game except perhaps making a 20 foot jump shot. Im not sure who Chuck Witherspoon is but I can tell you that Clarence Weatherspoon would run circles around KT.

    It goes without saying that I am as big of a fan as anyone on the board, but some of you guys are really going a little overboard with KT. He is good...he's not THAT good...yet.
     

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