Timing: Neyer has gone downhill in the past year or so... don't know if he's just lazy, now... or if he was told to get less technical. My favorite baseball site is now www.baseballprospectus.com . I also disagree on too much with Neyer for one to say I "regurgitate" his stuff. I admit, he was the first person I read regarding sabermetric analysis of baseball... but then, that's where most people first hear that word, I think, regarding baseball.
Anyone ever read "Whatever happened to the hall of fame" by bill james? It's a pretty good read if these hall of fame arguements interest you. The stuff on drysdale was surprising. As far as biggio goes, he should be in no doubt. If he played for the yankees or even just a bigger market, this wouldn't even be a question
I remember this being talked about but can't remember if it was true. Has there ever been a tandem in baseball history where one of the players batted in the other player more times than the Bagwell/Biggio connection? I mean its been going on for over a decade. If one gets in then the other should too! Regardless, Biggio's my favorite player ever, so OF COURSE HE DESERVES IT!
DCKid There may have been one duo ahead of Bagwell and Biggio. At worst they are second. (hmmm, maybe I'm thinking of Stockton to Malone).
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/03/23/on_base_ap/ Makes me want to swoon with pleasure... or something.
Did anybody see Baseball Tonight yesterday and Dave Campbells picks for HOF locks and future ones if they keep up the pace. He didn't even mention biggio or bagwell. Thats asinine. I agree robbie alomar should make it too, but so should craig. Hell he had jason giambi and raffy palmeiro above bags. No way, Jose.
Biggio probably is a Hall Of Famer. Hell, since Bonds is a lock despite his playoff failures, then Biggio should go. But I want to say this. Craig Biggio might be the worst playoff clutch hitter ever. (I'll find evidence when i have time.) Sure he might get a single to lead off a playoff game, but if the astros are trailing by run in the bottom of the seventh with two outs and biggio is batting, you can go ahead write, 3 outs on your scorecard because WE all know that inevtable grounder to second is gonna happen. Sure all the Astros have trouble in the playoffs, but when the worst clutch performer is your leadoff hitter you have no chance to win. I wouldn't ming having Craig on Astros...........Counsell that is.
Bah. Everyone said the same thing about Bagwell until last season's playoffs. Then all the sudden Bagwell starts hitting like we know he can. What changed? Nothing changed except that he got more at bats in order for his career averages to meet up with his playoff averages. All these things even out, and if Biggio is given enough chances in the playoffs, his numbers will resemble what he has done in the regular season.
Given enough chances? are you kidding me. Some star players only make the playoffs one or two times in a career. Look at what counsell has done in two playoff apperances. And he is not even a star player. Biggio has been lucky to have four chances at the playoffs and he is still pathetic. Four chances is more than enough. You'd think experience would help him improve his playoff average, but it hasn't. he has some kind of mental block in his head. If Biggio needs more than four chances to meet his regular season average, that shows how worthless he is in the playoffs, I mean anyone can play second base. I will agree that Baggy had a decent playoff last year.
Does that mean that Ted Williams and Barry Bonds are worthless too? I find it hard to believe that both of those guys, as amazing as they were/are in the regular season, suddenly cease to be able to hit when the games are playoff rather than regular season. And you didn't really answer my question. Bagwell hit well in last season's playoffs, but up until then, he was labeled a "choker" along with Biggio. Everyone said that they had a "mental block" just like you are now saying about Biggio. But then he started hitting. What changed? Why is it is unreasonable to think the same thing might happen with Biggio? I am not trying to argue that Biggio's playoff performances up to this point have not been bad. Obviously they have been atrocious compared to his regular season numbers, but I don't think that is enough proof to make a claim that he will never be able to hit in the playoffs.
OK, we have some more data with which to figure out Biggio's chances. In today's column by John Lopez, Biggio basically says he'll retire before 40. Right now, he's 36, so let's assume 4 more seasons. First off, let me say this: IMHO, the fact that we even have to go through this exercise is a joke. There is no doubt in my mind that Biggio is a Hall of Famer and that, if he'd played in a big time baseball city (not to mention away from the Dome), he'd be a lock. (Of course, this exercise assumes he goes injury-free the next 4 years. I'm going to compare Biggio to Joe Morgan, the greatest 2B of the modern era, and not to Alomar since we don't know Alomar's final career totals yet.) Bidge averages 178 hits per year. Assuming a decline as he nears 40, say he averages 165 hits per year. He'll finish with 2,809. Joe Morgan had 2,517. Bidge averages 108 runs per year. For the next four years we'll put him at 90. He'll finish with 1,665. Morgan: 1,650. 15 HRs per year. Assume a very conservative 13 (Enron could inflate this of course). Biggio, 232. Morgan, 268. 67 RBIs per year. Assume 60 (very conservative since his career average in Enron is around 75). Biggio 1,051. Morgan, 1,133. Other notes: Morgan has nearly 700 SBs, Biggio won't touch that. But Biggio should finish around 20 points higher than Morgan's .271 career BA. So, assume Biggio is productive through age 39. His performance last year proves to me that he can be. If he does that, his numbers will be right there with the man many consider the best 2B of all time. This, of course, doesn't include any of the intangibles -- all-star at C and 2B, going a full season without hitting into a DP, the 50/50 year, Gold Gloves, etc. And, hopefully, there will be a World Series champion ship or two in the next couple years so he can add that to his resume.
I am not here to argue the merits of Biggio making the hall of fame. I am here simply to point out one glaring ommission in your comparison. Morgan was a 2 time MVP winner in 1975 and 1976 for a world chanmpionship team that many consider the best team of the last 30 years. Biggio will not win an MVP (I certainly would like to see him do so, but it's too late in his career). I think it will come down to this. Regardless of Biggio's current stats, if Sandberg makes the HOF, Biggio WILL make the HOF. If Sandberg doesn't, Biggio MAY make the HOF.
Bobrek, I agree with what you say about Morgan 100%. I am not in any way saying that Biggio is as good as Morgan. I just wanted to look at the comparison based purely on numbers and not the intangibles. So it wasn't a glaring omission; it just wasn't the point of my exercise. Of course, Morgan's HOF credentials are better than Biggio's -- he's probably the best 2B ever to play the game. I just wanted to show how Biggio's numbers (and only his numbers) would compare if he has 4 more productive years.
Let's take a look at Morgan's numbers from his 2 MVP seasons vs. Biggio's best 2 years: Morgan 1975:.327 BA, 107 R, 163 H, 27 2B, 6 3B, 17 HR, 94 RBI, 132 BB, 52K, .466 OBP, .508 SLG, .974 OPS, 67-10 SB (87%) 1976:.320 BA, 113 R, 151 H, 30 2B, 5 3B, 27 HR, 111 RBI, 114 BB, 41K, .444 OBP, .576 SLG, 1.020 OPS, 60-9 SB (87%) Biggio 1997: .309 BA, 146 R, 191 H, 37 2B, 8 3B, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 84 BB, 107K, .415 OBP, .501 SLG, .916 OPS, 47-10 SB (82.5%) 1998: .325 BA, 123 R, 210 H, 51 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 64 BB, 113K, .403 OBP, .503 SLG, .907 OPS, 50-8 SB (86.2%) The thing that really jumps out at me is Morgan's unbelievably good plate discipline compared to Bidge - close to twice as many walks & less than half as many K's. Other than that, their numbers are quite similar. I'm not factoring in the baseball-wide increase in offense over the last 5-10 years: Morgan played with one of the best offensive clubs of all-time in a reasonably hitter-friendly home field; Biggio also had a great lineup around him, but played half his games in the greatest pitchers park in MLB history. I'll call it a wash. I don't put as much stock in awards (MVP, All-Star appearances, Gold Gloves etc...) as some - things voted on by people are quite subjective by nature.
Bagwell hit .429. Decent? Try phenomenal. Huge example of not racking up the dependent statistics like RBIs, runs, etc, because teammates didn't play well. Here's something fun to try: remember some people who developed reputations as "clutch hitters" by hitting homeruns that won the World Series, etc... then check out their career playoff stats. Some of them hit pathetically except for a couple of "famous" hits in "clutch" situations in the playoffs. I think that high school poem about Casey in Mudville pretty much sums it up. When you strike out memorably, you're a choker. When you hit the homer, you're a hero. Most people don't want to believe that a lot of its random. Not that I mean winning and losing - not usually, because success is a compilation of so many small events and at bats. But with 2 outs in the 9th, your team down by 1, with runners on 3rd and 2nd... people want to think that the gapper to left-center is going to happen every time if you re-played the situation 100 times. The guy is "clutch." It was fate, destiny, whatever. People don't like to admit that a hitter who hits .300, will probably hit .300 against a league average pitcher in that situation regardless. He might hit the double - he probably won't, no matter if he's Craig Biggio or Derek Jeter. EDIT: How stupid of me to forget, Arky Vaughn from Astros Connection wrote a bit about Biggio recently (I have no idea why Vaugn isn't getting paid to write about baseball, since he does it so well): Here's the relevant excerpt and a link to an article by the same fellow about clutch hitting in the playoffs: http://www.astrosconnection.com/html/crunchtime.cfm?id=230 (the clutch hitting one)
Biggio rated against HOF players Has a good chance to if he plays two more years to be better than 75% of HOF position players at Runs Doubles SB HBP Least amount of GDIP in a season Around 50% at BB Better than 25% at HR He may even be better than a one or two at RBI BA
Biggio racks up another one of those obscure records that HOF voters love ... his leadoff HR today ties him with Bobby Bonds at 30 for the NL career record...
