I hate to break the news to you but the Rockets are more likely to get the 6th pick than the 5th pick. The calculations below shows you their chances: 1st 8.90% 2nd 9.77% 3rd 10.82% 4th 0.00% 5th 26.59% 6th 35.65% 7th 7.94% 8th 0.33% ----------------- Total 100.00%
Statistically we're the 5th worst team, meaning there's no possible way we can move up to the fourth spot. Winning the lotto would be the only way we could move from 5 to 1-3. But since those top 3 are the only picks drawn for, the only options there are are 1-3, and 5-8.
29.49% that the Rocks will get picks 1-3, which make it more likely they get a top 3 pick than they do the fifth pick.
If your calculations are correct, we have a 56% chance of picking 1 thru 5. So, our chances of picking 6 or worse are only 44%. Those odds seem to be in our favor.
Actually you are right Smoke. The expectation is 4.66th Pick which is better than the 5th pick. So yes I like our chances. But do not be too disappointed if we get the 6th pick since it is the most likely pick.
this calculation is not right, u forgot to take away balls after each of the top 2 pick. (u need to know calculus III to do that) example, if chicago and GS win de top 2 picks. our chance of having the #3 pick is 10.82/(100%-17.84-17.22) = 16.7%
no they should be right. i think it has to do with the fact that once those two teams already are chosen for 1 and 2, ALL OTHER TEAMS chances go up as well. the # of balls you have are still in the same proportion as the rest. besides, the calculations have been done thousands of times before and are well documented. its the same for the nuggets. we are most likely going to pick 5th. we have like 40% chance 1-3, 10% 4, and 50% 5-7.
I haven't done the math myself, but my guess is, those numbers are correct. Because, I think for the last several years the lottery has been done based on a combination, not just on drawing 3 pingpong balls. So there isn't the whole issue of re-calculating the numbers after the 1st pick has been decided. I think they system changed after the Mavericks got screwed the year Shaq came out. Something about the Mav's ball and somebody else's getting stuck at the top and then they re-did it or something. I don't remember the whole story. They've been tweeking the lottery formula almost since its inception. --Drof
The calculations for the first 3 picks came straight from table provided by "Clutch" (they are somewhat easy to calculate). Picks 5-8 are much tougher to calculate, they were time consuming and extensive statistical calculations have been used. All results have been verfied before I published them. Thanks "NugzFan" for your response to "AcBrave". Thanks "Swami" for the kind words. The luck of the draw sometimes goes beyond any statistics.
i don't know about where clutch got his table from, but ceteris paribus, AcBrave is correct. the calculations are not correct because if a certain team grabs a spot before the rocks, then you remove all their lotto balls and the rocks get a new percentage for the 2nd pick you don't need calculus, just a little knowledge of how to work combinatorics and probability... just to illustrate this... imagine the rocks and 4 others are the only people in the draft... if the top seed gets 5 lotto balls, 2nd seed 4, etc... .down to rocks getting 1 lotto ball initially the rocks have 1/5! or 1/1+2+3+4+5 = 1/15th a chance if the top seed gets the top pick, then for the second pick... the rocks get... 1/4! or 1/1+2+3+4 = 1/10th chance if the second top seed gets the second pick, than the rocks have 1/3! or 1/1+2+3 = 1/6 chance to get the third... however, calculating this is not so simple... the number of lotto balls are seperated by different margins... and you have to consider the combinations that a seed gets a different pick and then divide by the number of combinations with sequence involved... then finally add up certain totals to figure out the chances the rocks have of getting a top 3
Crossover, Clutch calculations and my calculations are correct. Until you calculate what you think is right for all the picks (1-8) and publish them, do not say that were are not correct. I have spent a lot of time calculating them and verifying the results. I work in the field of probabilties and statistics. Your argument is flawed for one simple fact. 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 (it called 5 factorial) not what you mentioned 5! = 5+4+3+2+1 = 15
Originally posted by COMPAQ CENTER He was wrong to write X! but the addition was correct. My suggestion is a Monte carlo simulation. Write a program to run a lottery, iterate it a few thousand times, and tally the results. A few hundred sims would give reasonable results, but on a decent machine you could probably do a million iterations an hour, yielding better and better results. FYI I rant Clutch's sim and the Rockets picked #1 twice, #2 once, and #5 once. I like my odds better than yours.
The Rockets have 89 of the 1000 combinations, right? Their probabilities are listed as: 1st: 8.9% 2nd: 9.77% 3rd: 10.82% Obviously, the withdrawing of winners' combinations has already been accounted for in the percentages for 2nd and 3rd. If that had not been accounted for, they would all say 8.9% (89/1000). So, why are we even talking about that? The calculation is right.
sorry, i really worded that badly i meant to say "I don't know where clutch got his stats" meaning i have no idea if his stats are correct or not and "the calculation is not correct" was referring to 29-30% chance of getting a top three pick which i do believe is wrong? compaq center can u verify? and yeah, i had no idea how to denote an "additive factorial" or series summation? so i put the wrong ! symbol apologies, didn't mean to discredit your stats
No problem Crossover. The calculations to get any of the top 3 picks for the Rockets is about 29.4% which is pretty good. Actually, the calculations for the top 3 chances for all teams have been published in the Chronicle and NBA.com and they are about the same as what Clutch has published except for fractions in difference due to tie breaker for several teams have been announced later which changed the distribution of the balls slightly.
