Resigning our Big 3 vs. 2010 free agency vs. Trading our Big 3

First, let me say that I don't see any chance that the Big 3 will be broken up this year. After all, they were assembled to win us a Championship & are right in the thick of things, even with all the injuries we've had this year. Having said that though, we need to take a hard look at what we're going to do when they reach that final year of their current contracts. Everyone keeps defending their favorite player & not looking at what would be better in the long run for the Houston Rockets. So, I decided to see what our options would be for the future of the Rockets. I've broken it down into 3 topics & a summary of my opinion. I'm sure everyone will have their own opinions & I encourage you to voice them.


Resigning our Big 3


Artest - Ron will be the first to become a free agent after this season. He just turned 29 years old & will be 30 just after the start of next season. I've no doubt that he'll be looking for a big payday. His skills are still going strong & his stats haven't shown any significant drop off in the last 3 years, but he's played an average of 55.7 games per year in the 3 previous years (56, 70, 57) & has missed 5 games thus far this year. If we win a Championship this year, do you resign him at 30 years old to make one more run? If so, for how long?

McGrady - Tracy will be the second one to become a free agent the following year. He's 29 years old & will be turning 31 one month after his contract expires. However, while he's not 30 years old yet, he came straight from high school & he's currently playing in his 12th season & the injuries have been really showing the effects of the many years of pounding he's taken. Given the 4 extra years in the pros, his body would tend to reflect the wear & tear of a 33 year old player (it'll be the equivalent of a 35 year old body when he gets his new contract). When he's healthy, Tracy is one of the most all-around productive players in the game. However, his production in ppg, apg, rpg, & fg% have steadily dropped (albeit, slightly) over the last 3 years (that includes this year). His 3pt% & ft% have spiked this year after declining in the previous 2 years. He's played an average of 61.3 games per year in the 3 previous years (47, 71, 66) & has missed 9 games thus far this year. Do you resign him at 31 (35) years old? If so, for how long?

Yao - Yao will be the last of the Big 3 to become a free agent. He's 28 years old & will be turning 31 before his next contract. He’s had injury problems the previous 3 years & he has had problems with his feet more than once. This could become a chronic injury if he doesn’t back away from playing basketball year round to give his body the recovery time it needs. If he doesn’t start giving his body a break, his NBA career could be short lived. Yao’s one saving grace is that he’s only played in the physically demanding NBA 6 years prior to this one. While he has played for China for many years, their style of basketball is much softer than the NBA. That might allow him to play at a higher level for several more years, but not if he doesn’t start taking care of himself. His fg% & ppg have declined over the last 3 years while his rpg & bpg have remained consistent. His fg% has returned this year to what it was in his first 3 years. He’s played in an average of 53.3 games per year in the previous 3 years (57, 48, 55) & has missed 1 game thus far this year. Do you resign him at 31 years old? If so, for how long?


2010 Free Agency


Everyone is talking about the 2010 free agency class & making plans to have all the cap space they can get their hands on. There are some outstanding free agents that year. But, how many of them will actually go on the open market? With the CBA, a player can make more money by staying with their current team. They could do a sign & trade if their current team can get the right mix of talent & draft picks back in return. But, that would mean gutting the new team of talent which would make them less enticing to the free agent. For all practical purposes, the superstar free agents will resign with their current teams, & for those that do leave, they generally indicate which team they want to go play for well in advance. Thus far, I’ve not heard of any player expressing a desire to join the Houston Rockets. But, a Championship or two could fix that problem.


Trading our Big 3


With the likelihood of the major free agents resigning with their current teams, would it be wiser to trade your expiring contracts for young talent & draft picks to those teams that still believe they have a shot at signing Lebron, Kobe, Nowitzki, Yao, etc. etc.?

With Artest, we could only do a sign & trade & would most likely have to take back an undesirable contract. But, we should be able to pick up a young talent or a draft pick. In other words, if we choose to break them up, Artest would’ve been a one year rental.

Considering his injuries & the wear & tear on his body, McGrady’s best value could be his expiring contract. We should be able to get some quality young talent & draft picks for him. Maybe some team will pay big to see if he’s got enough left in the tank to make one more title run.

If Yao starts taking better care of himself, he should be able to play at a high level for a few more years after his current contract expires. Since there is no equal to Yao in the NBA, we should be able to land 2 or 3 good prospects & possibly a draft pick or two.


Summary


As I said at the beginning, I don’t see any possible changes to the Big 3 this year. If they win a Championship, I could see them resigning Artest for another run. However, if they don’t, I believe that this group will be dismantled.

Even though I believe the superstars will resign with their current teams in 2010, there will be some very nice 2nd tier players available. I don’t see the Rockets waiting until then to do something for the future. They’ll snag one of the 2nd tier players only & use the current roster to make some deals before 2010.

In my opinion, the Rockets will try to resign Artest for 3-5 years with a player option in year 4 & a team option in year 5. They’ll trade McGrady’s expiring contract next year in an attempt to get some talent to put around Yao & Artest, & eventually to replace them. It’s my opinion that if Yao takes care of himself he should get one last max contract for 3-5 years.

Well, that’s the way I see it playing out. How do you see it playing out?