It takes big men a little while step into the role. I say we just sit back for a couple seasons and watch. I would bet that he will be very good in his career. All time great center? Of course it's highly unlikely, but he's got the potential to be at least a solid top 3 center in the league, if he stays healthy (duh). Perhaps he will be one of the greats, who can tell?
I can understand the Blazers' thinking in drafting Oden over Durant. 1. They were in dire need of a big. 2. Durant and Roy would have been two young studs both demanding the ball on the perimeter. Having said that, I think two or three years from now, people will look back and ridicule the Blazers for picking Oden instead of Durant even though it made all the sense in the world at the time. I remember reading some analyst's take on Oden a couple of years ago where he was talking about Oden having an awkward gait and how he already looked like an aging veteran when he walked (Oden was not injured at the time). He was saying that Oden didn't have good physical symmetry and that he looked like a bust in the making because of his risk for chronic injuries and a short career. I still have huge expectations for Durant. Once he puts 15 lbs or so of muscle on that frame, he is going to become all the more difficult to stop. It may sound a little far-fetched right now but I think he'll be considered right there with James, Wade, Paul, Williams, Roy, possibly Rose, etc... as the best of the best in a few years, especially once whatever he team he is playing for becomes more competitive.
I think you are right. I want Oden to succeed but KD will be better, maybe much better. P.J. Carlesimo was the worst thing that ever happened to KD. But right now in obscurity, he is on his way to becoming a top-level star. For December, he was 25/8/3 shooting at 47%, 42% from long range. The kid JUST TURNED 20! Like you said, when he bulks up 10-15 lbs as he gets older, KD will be very tough to stop. People don't take him seriously because of his poor shooting % last season and because his team is sorry. One of these days, that will change.
I for one knew it was a dumb decision at the time, and I think the general consensus among reasonable analysts was that the best player in that draft was clearly Durant, not Oden. I wasn't at all surprised to see Oden struggle when he started playing in the NBA. There is obviously still room for him to grow, but he was never worth a #1 pick. If there was ever a case that demonstrated the hazard that comes with "drafting for need", this is it.
Oden is okay--really, the only issue will be injuries. It takes three-four years for a big man to understand how to play his position in the NBA, or even what position to play. If he can stay healthy he'll be a star--though, man, he looks very, very depressed right now.
Roster wise I guess Portland figured a B+ grade big helps their team more than an A grade wing player. But it makes less sense Oden over Durant considering its Portland, who stockpiles talent at any position even if they go 4 deep at it
I wanted Durant at the time too for the Blazers but I think they made the right move. Durant was the sexy pick. However, players like Durant are a dime a dozen and they come out every year or two. Athletic 7 footers with huge upside and potential come out once every 4-5 years if that.
Even though Dorsey is not a very good player himself. He does have a point calling Oden "overrated". Oden is still a young player. and definitely has room to go. Though if you look at him, he has a lot less growth potential than Howard. he has less athletism, less speed, and his strength is comparable with Dwight. Not to mention, Dwight has yet to even develop a reliable jumphook or jumpshot. Not saying Oden won't become anything special, but he already has 2 injuries in his short NBA career, and centers are the most prone to injuries. So hopefully injuries won't affect his growth.
Because of the nature of the game and it's non-fixed positions, you don't regularly see basketball player's value measured in production over replacement/or average players like you do in baseball. However, it's still, imo, the a good way to compare the production/value across different teams/positions. I'm sure it's also why Portland (correctly imo) picked Oden over Durant. Simply put, the value of a top 5 center is greater than the value of a top 5 sf because the different in production (and skill level) between a top 5 center and an average (or also replacement) level center is larger the comparable difference of a top 5 and average sf. Of course situational factors come into play. For example the system the players play in also goes a long way to determining value (maybe a top 5 sf would be better than a top 5 c on a certain team that runs it's offense disproportionately through it's sf). But then again there are not too many championship level teams in my lifetime whose best player was a sf (and the one major exception, the 80's Celtics teams, had two in their prime HOF big men). Of course, with perfect hindsight, if they knew Oden would have a major injury and miss a crucial year of development time i'm sure Portland would have done something different. But I don't know if there was any strong evidence there were injury red flags. And barring any major injury red flags, I think Oden was a no-brainer pick over Durant. The major injury and missing 1.5 years of peak development time obviously has stunted his growth a little bit, but all the tools are still there. He might not reach his potential as an inner circle HOFer, but at the very least, if he stays healthy, I would be surprised if he didn't put up a 18/12/3 pts/reb/blk type line during his prime. It's about what Dwight Howard is now and it's pretty damn valuable to winning basketball games.
If Oden can stay healthy, he may prove to be as valuable to the Blazers defense as Durant is to the THunder's offense.
One thing I do like about Oden is his hands for a big man. The ball just seems to come off it softer than other big guys.
