I was surprised that no one has brought up this topic yet on these boards, since they seem to be THE defining question of the 2009 college basketball season. UNC is the most proliferative mid-season favorite to win the title since maybe Duke in 2002, but in my mind they resemble more closely another Duke team--that of 2006. All-Americans Redick and Shelden Williams came back that year (while most of their UNC counterparts Sean May Raymond Felton Rashad McCants and Marvin Williams left for the NBA) and teamed with super freshmen Paulus and McRoberts to form what was unequivocally the preseason favorite to win the title. As we all found out, however, they did not have the NBA talent commonly associated with NCAA champions, and lost to Big Baby and Tyrus Thomas in the Sweet Sixteen. So my question to you guys is...who out there is primed to beat UNC this year? Can ANYONE stop them at all? You look at that squad and yeah, a lot of guys could have left and become borderline first-rounders last year but chose not to. But how, really, is that different from the aforementioned Duke team? Not one of UNC's players is projected to be an NBA star or even a lottery pick. That usually portends poorly for their tournament hopes. But by scouts measurements this is a down year for NBA talent from the freshman class. Is there any NBA-level talent on a top notch squad out there to be in position to challenge UNC? Jrue Holiday of UCLA? Greg Monroe of Georgetown? BJ Mullens of Ohio State? Demar DeRozan of USC? What about the sophomores that did not leave? James Harden of Arizona State? Dejuan Blair of Pitt? Dare I mention Kyle Singler of Duke? He might be a better NBA prospect than anyone UNC has to offer right now; look at how high Joe Alexander got drafted. What do you think?
How does Duncan, Paul, or Howard help WF beat UNC today? Unless you're talking about their lone first round pick compared to UNC's three. Haters are everywhere Just enjoy the ride folks - it's like getting to watch an NBA team in college! (Dook sucks.)
http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_mock_drafts/8516 So for this year, you are correct--UNC has 3 projected first round picks and Wake has one. By every other measurement for NBA-quality talent you are wrong: freshman Al Farouq Aminu is a projected top 10 pick and Jeff Teague probably will be a higher draft prospect in a year than wherever Ellington or Danny Green get picked at. Ty Lawson is all over the place atm, as high as 11 on DraftExpress.com and 24 in the NBADraft.net link, but he should be the highest Tarheel selected this year. Hansbrough is a consensus 20-30 pick, but so are many big guys each year (remember Fazekas, McRoberts, Big Baby? DeAndre Jordan?) that end up falling into the second round. Wake Forest also has freshmen Ty Walker (Rivals #17) and Tony Woods (Rivals #20) from their top draft class this past year with good opportunities to make their NBA case in the next 2-3 seasons. All-in-all the potential of Aminu alone is enough to outweigh the others--being a non-top 10 pick basically cuts your chances of having a lasting NBA career to something like 20-30%. When shocking NCAA champions occur, the result usually justifies itself a couple years down the line in the form of NBA talent rising like cream to the top. Think Mike Bibby the year Arizona beat Kentucky, or Al Horford the first year Florida won it all. This year, UNC has "upset favorite" written all over them. Who on their team is going to justify them winning it all? Mario Chalmers is already starting for Miami, and Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur are making good contributions to their NBA teams. The team that wins it all this year will probably have some players that do the same in the NBA next year. (And betraying your UNC colors only gives your argument less credibility.)
honestly right now i dont see any team being able to beat unc. they arent just beating teams they are destroying them. maybe in the tournament they may fall in a late round but its hard to see. there isnt another great team out there like them right now. last year, unc, ucla, memphis, kansas were all great teams and there were several lower tier teams that were just as tough. now all of the four teams above except for unc were all depleted from the nba draft...unc which had a few players declare all came back and they were the #1 overall seed last year. i dont see this years level of ncaa ball to be as good as last year there were just so many tough teams. sure there isnt a lottery pick on unc this year but in terms of trying to build a college program into a winner the went the right way building a team with skilled players who will stay 2+ years instead of trying to keep building a team together with a bunch of one (or two) and done. even when unc won it all a few years ago they had marvin williams leave and he was coming off the bench as a freshman and their main floor leaders, felton and may have shown that they were great college players and average pros....and they probably were all drafted too high because of the success they had in the tournament. right now even if unc loses a game in the regular season (that game @ duke isnt a gimme any year) they are going to be near impossible to stop in the tournament especially if they are given a favorable location like last year based on their seeding
oh and I hate hansborough i doubt that guy will have nearly the amount of success in the pros. he gets away with a lot of contact he really shouldn't. also to the OP I would put Blake Griffin in your list of super sophomores....that guy is an absolute beast
According to some scouts UNC has up to eight NBA prospects currently on that squad. I'd say they have the NBA talent needed to win it all. Furthermore, they are much more athletic than the 2006 Duke team. I don't really see the comparison.
No way. Just like nobody could stop UNLV or Georgetown or Phi Slamma Jamma or Kentucky. Yet Duke, Villanova, NC St., and Texas Western all found a way... and those were just the Finals.
And they beat a Memphis team with a much more transcendent NBA talent (Rose) and a couple other NBA talents (CDR, Dorsey). You seem to be making a supposition about cause and effect that just isn't there. Yes, this UNC team may be beat. And yes, the team that beats them will probably have a pretty great player. That's the nature of basketball, and moreover a one shot game like the NCAA tournament. That's why a school like George Mason can find itself in the Final Four. Great college players win college championships; it just so happens that most great NBA players happened to be great players in college, too. Your argument of Horford is silly -- he was the #4 scorer on that team, and he was Noah's 2nd fiddle throughout the season and the tournament. There's not causality there.
I'm not making any explanation of cause and effect. It's a simple correlation that every NCAA champion in the past ten years (perhaps longer, I just don't remember back that far nor do I care to research it) with the exception of Michigan St. in 2001 happened to have a player that panned out in the NBA as either a star (Carmelo) or solid rotation guys, even if it's not the stars that carried their teams to the title (Steve Blake, Horford). In my opinion, UNC has neither this year. I could be wrong--Ed Davis still has a lot basketball in him to prove he is NBA-caliber, and Ty Lawson could really drive home the conception of the NBA turning into a small man's game by joining CP3 DJ Augustin and Aaron Brooks as little guys that show how speed can overcome anything. But if I am not wrong, then the Tar Heels have only one precedent (Michigan St.) before it in recent history that would support their case for the championship. I don't care how they've demolished opponents thus far; they've played Notre Dame and that's about it. We'll learn A LOT more about them during the ACC season, when they have to contend with the likes of Clemson Wake Miami and Duke while playing half their games on the opponents' turf. I for one will watch as much college bball as I can this year, because to me it's a wide open field.
Obviously no team is unbeatable. We beat Illinois in the finals when they were undefeated. That same year, we lost to a scrub team the first game of the season (without Felton though). Well ideally I'd love to have an undefeated national champion season, I'm not going to go end of the world if UNC loses. It's kind of like the Rockets.. you know they're so damn good, and they will be there in the end, you don't worry about hiccups in games. The argument about the star power putting them over the top.. Deron Williams? Got beat by Felton, May, McCants, Marvin.. none of which who have developed into anything close to Deron. I have no idea what you meant about betraying UNC colors though.
I agree that Illinois-UNC was a good example of the team with the best NBA player (Illinois) losing, but still that's not my knock on this year's Carolina team. I am not trying to say that NBA talent will always beat non-NBA talent, in fact the opposite is true for much of the regular season: strategy and heady veteran play will win out in the regular season more often than not. When you start to talk about March, a good balance between talent and experience seems best. Look at the last two champions: Kansas and Florida were led by juniors that were also good enough to be drafted the following June, and the same exact thing happened to UNC in 2005. What I am trying to say about this year's UNC team is, who is their NBA player? 2005 had Felton and Marvin Williams that are still starting/logging large minutes in their NBA team rotations, and will look to do so for a few more years yet. McCants is coming off the bench and May was a bust, but we all could have guessed that while they were in college. 2009's incarnation of the Tar Heels has Hansborough, Ellington, Lawson, and Green as the major cogs. Lawson is the best prospect there, and he's looking to go 15-25 in the draft, no higher than 10. You're telling me that team is the overwhelming favorite? It's the exact same thing as Duke in 2006--people are talking themselves into giving them the championship just because of their prior NCAA record, but almost every NCAA champion has some kind of strong rotation NBA talent, irrespective of the other talent that might go into the NBA their year.
