The BCS and where it goes from here.

Last week Texas was ahead of OU in expected schedule strength. Now OU is 3rd and Texas is 4th (this factors in next week)--which would have been switched had UTEP not blown there lead vs UH. In short, it is incredibly close. Right now it is like Coleman-Fraken close.
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2008/Internet/toughest schedule/fbs_9games_cumm.pdf

Believe it or not, the determination of a BCS team may boil down to a game in Lincoln, or even Houston. It may come down who wins between NU and CU or even Rice beating UH, because these represent differential common opponents. How would it go down if BigTex and TJs' Fighting Birds got the Longhorns into the NC game

Here are the those games that matter:

MOST IMPORTANT
11/28 Colorado (Texas Only Opp) @ Nebraska (OOO) 3:30 PM
11/29 Cincy (OOO) vs Syracuse 12:00 PM
11/29 Mizzou (TOO) vs. Kansas* 12:30 PM ET

STILL IMPORTANT
11/28 UTEP (TOO) @ East Carolina 1:00 PM
11/28 Ark (TOO) vs LSU 2:30 PM
11/29 FAU (TOO) vs Florida International 4:00 PM ET
11/29 Rice (TOO) @ Houston 3:30 PM ET

NOT IMPORTANT (these will effect final SOS but would not affect who gets in the Big12 Championship and thus controls their own destiny).
12/06 Cincy (OOO) @ Hawaii 11:30 PM
12/06 Wash (OOO) @ California

Overall, if Texas gets Mizzou to + plus either Cuse or Colorado upset, I think Texas will win the SOS. But if 2 of those 3 go against Texas, OU will probably edge them out in SOS.

 

One other thing nobody mentioned is the Sooners got a "convention bounce" last week. Texas was idle, and the Sooners bombed Tech, bounces do fade a bit.

This week pollsters will be focused on the two teams whole resumes and emotion/recency of the Tech game will carry weight. For instance if you look at Texas and OU, they went 4-3 and 3-4 respectively in the Harris poll on Nov 2. It wasn't because Texas was better vs Baylor than OU was versus Nebraska (the most recent games), it happened because the Tech loss was a full week digested and the pollsters reconsidered whether OU should be ahead of Texas based on body of work and the head-to-head. In short the impression and recency of the big game had less weight over time. I suspect a lot of voters who had OU ahead of Texas this week will go through the same process that happened Nov 2--maybe I shouldn't have put OU ahead of them after all. Also, this week, while of course not fair to the player kids, pollsters may even focus on things like which coach is a bigger A-hole (Brown and Stoop want to lobby without looking like they are actually lobbying).

[And yes Tech is out of that discussion because their schedule does not compare to UT or OU's (hurting in computers) and because they lost so thoroughly so recently (killing them with people, they are behind USC, PSU at at times Utah in some polls). You might argue OU or Texas had bad days on their losses, but Tech looked like they didn't belong on the same field in their loss. The argument is going to be reduced to whether OU or Texas is more deserving, and their are arguments for both sides]

Overall, IMO, it will go down like this. If Texas looks champion-like versus A&M on Thus, it goes back on OU on Saturday. If OU has a hard time with OSU, I think Texas probably gets Big 12 champ berth. If OU smokes OSU, that will probably overcome whatever Texas could have done to A&M. Texas in that case probably needs Baylor to beat Tech or Mizzou to beat A&M.

To really boil it down, there are LOT of good scenarios for Texas. If Texas beats the Aggies, they have a clear path to the NC if....
-OSU beats OU
OR
-Mizzou beats OU
OR
-Baylor beats Tech

Now if all 3 of these things don't happen, to have a NC shot Texas needs:
-OU to look less impressive in beating OSU than Texas did with A&M (level of competition here I think matters less to pollsters than just how good the teams look)
OR
-Bama loses to Auburn (which would kick out Bama regardless of the SEC
Champ outcome, & might do the same to Florida by weakening what was to be their signature victory)
OR
-Florida loses at FSU but beats Bama.

Now all those other common opponents games I previously listed will come into play if Texas and OU look about equally good next week (and they about split the human polls) AND those other events don't come in to play (Tech, Bama & UF all win this week).

 

I'd agree with this *if* OU and Texas were playing similarly crappy opponents (like Baylor/Nebraska). But OU is going to face the #11 team in the country, on the road. It's not "just another game" - it's another huge one that will give OU yet another boost. I just don't see voters being able to justify raising Texas and lowering OU on a weekend that OU beats the #11 team in the country on the road while Texas beats a terrible Aggie team at home. It just doesn't make sense.

 

On paper its better than Ole Miss, but that was a long time ago and by one point, instead of such a beat down. In many ways, its better to be upset by a bad team than to lose to a fellow contender, because upsets can be explained away, 65-21 can't.

So yes, OU is a better loss than Ole Miss if they were both by 1 point in week 5. But as we know, when you lose seems to matter as much as who you lose to...for better or worse.

 

So would you say the manner of the victory matters? If OU blows out OSU like Tech, than yeah, they will jump Texas. But if they limp to a win in poor performance AND Texas pummels A&M, there will be room to reconsider.

 

My head hurts....let's just see how it plays out.

DD

 

But if they had only beaten them by a last second field-goal, then they would be getting a lot less credit. They barely win against Tech at home, Texas barely losses on the road. The Tech game is a wash and you revert back to the Red River game. Of course, Tech would still be in it, but not having a single good win away from home and a terrible non-conf schedule kills them in the computers. So you could make an argument for Texas no matter the scenario, and same with OU, while Tech is probably out of it.

 

First, making "sense" or being logical is not the most important thing here. If it were Texas wouldn't have gone past OU after beating Baylor when they beat a better team by a bigger margin. Further, Nebraska was not a crappy opponent—clearly much better than Baylor, and OU demolished them, yet still lost ground in the polls. Among two squads that are so equal and have many counter arguments and time to digest them, it is impression or gestalt that is making the difference.

I do agree OU has the advantage. If OU smokes OSU and none of those other things play out, Texas will probably be behind OU in the BCS rankings next Sunday regardless. But nor do I suspect most voters really think OSU is a #12 type team, and the Bedlam Brawl (if that is what they call it) is more of a local thing, not near as well known nationally as A&M-Texas. I am sure the last two years victories by A&M and the rivalry hyped to national media will make the game much more visable and notable than a game versus your typical 4-7 team. I am not saying it puts beating A&M on the same level of beating OSU, but these other considerations closes the gap more than logic would demand, thus impression by Texas in this game will matter.

In sum I think lots of pollsters will be watching both rivalry games, hearing all arguments this week (head to head, SOS, who is playing hotter—arguments which split both ways) and looking at overall final impression (probably both for their final team votes and those with Heisman ballots). I think the fact OU’s opponent is top 10-15 and that game will be more recent will matter mainly if those teams look more “equally champion-like”. If OU looks flawed even in a win Texas has an excellent chance--b/c what I think has OU over Texas despite the head-to-head outcome in pollsters minds is not that OU was won all their games since that loss but because they have steamrolled since. They have looked dominant, complete and unbeatable since that game. Same reason UF is ahead of Texas in human polls. Cracks in that armor open the door for Texas.

 

If there weren't such a disparity in opponents, I think the style points would matter here. As is, OU beating OSU would be the only road win any of the big 5 Big12 teams have over any of the others. I think they could squeak out a 1 pt win, and I don't see the pollsters moving Texas above them, unless we won something like 60-0. But neither our offense or coach is really geared towards that type of score.

So if anything, I think style points matter more in the Texas game than the OU game, but my guess is they don't matter at all. Remember, OU is going to gain lots of ground in the computers, so they'll pass is if the voters stay as-is. We need voters to actually drop OU or raise Texas to stay ahead.

 

The problem here is that the H2H argument isn't new. The coaches and Harris poll voters have been hearing about it for several weeks. In fact, over the last two weeks, they did switch their votes after considering it. But despite that, they then decided to flip OU back over Texas. It's not like they don't know at this point that it's going to be close and that Texas beat OU head-to-head and that their vote matters. Despite all that, they still flipped to favor OU. A week later, there's just no reason that's going to change. It might be different if the H2H argument were just beginning to take hold - but it's been talked about for the last 4 weeks.

The reason votes switched during Nebraska/Baylor is that the argument was a much discussed new line in the media, and it made voters pause. At this point, they've already paused and thought about it, considered it and reconsidered it, and decided OU should be ahead regardless. I don't see why that would change a week later.

 

May I invite you to my next hold-em tournament? I'll cover your airfare!

 

I think you're giving far too much credit to the voters. I think your scenario is true in the case of AP voters -- who generally watch the most games, know the most about the teams, and, to no coincidence, are more favorable to Texas.

With coaches, you have numerous documented cases of coaches who don't even fill out their own ballots until the end of the season. Likewise, with the Harris, you have pretty much the most random collection of people ever -- two years ago, the NYT chased down a voter to his place of employment... a construction site. I think there are a lot of people in those polls in particular who don't know the full body of work of the two teams, don't know the significance of the BCS rankings in determining the Big 12 South winner and haven't given a lot of time to seriously consider their rankings, other than looking at the most recent box score and being blown away by OU's rout of a then-No. 2 team.

I think there's definite potential, especially if the right media and/or email campaign can be launched, for those two polls to change a bit, if those voters can be educated to the system. Anecdotal evidence tells me you're being far too generous to the overall college football knowledge of the people making those votes.

 

That could be true - but then you're making the assumption that somehow that will magically change this coming week. If these people are as disinterested / uneducated as you suggest, then they may just pay attention in the final poll that decides who plays in the bowl games - after the conference championship games. If they don't know today that next week's poll is unusually important, then you're asking a lot for them to suddenly get informed during Thanksgiving week when they have even more other things going on.

 

I agree with Cat largely. I think there are probably lots of open mind voters on the fence on ranking Texas and OU. The weight of knowing this last vote will decide the inside track to the BCS will affect them--they will hear all the arguments, a few of them will study more, and they will pay a lot of attention to the recent games. Mostly I think they have flip flopped twice post the Tech game based on whims and impressions--very fluid, and I think this week is no different. You disagree, but if Texas looks dominant in all phases and OU struggles, I like Texas chances. I think the only thing keeping OU ahead of Texas is they have looked more dominant post the RRS, if the teams kind of look equal, they may weight the head to head again. I don't think a close or sloppy win versus OSU cements anything in the Big 12S.

 

You do not want me there unless you want me taking all the money back to Austin.

DD

 

The current sportsnation poll on ESPN is pretty funny:

 

I think OU is the best Big12 South team as well. But that doesn't mean they deserve to represent the Big12 South based on the results on the field.

Personally, the only team I would have OU as a (slight) underdog to would be Florida. Now I am not sure they would have great success versus USC brutal defense either--OU's finese offense (heavy with slow developing pass plays that are deadly if there QB's have all day but crumble when their Oline means the rare overmatch) over the years has often struggled after New Years when they face good pressuring athletic defenses like LSU, USC, WV etc).

 

I think it would be pretty wild if whomever in the Big 12 south is left out of the BCS would refuse to go to the cotton bowl..

I can absolutely see Leech doing that and I'd fully support it.

 

Why? Whomever finishes 3rd is simply the odd man out. That's life. They can b**** about it all they want, but what good would it do them to refuse to go to the Cotton Bowl? All it would mean is that in a similar situation in another year, the bowls will look blackball them.