The amazing 22 game win streak put us back on the map last year (even 1st seed). You can't count on that kind of performance again. 44 seems about right based on how we're playing though perhaps a bit low unless health becomes an even more major issue with this team.
whoops, i just figured out what Hollinger's flaw is in his predictions. I added up everyone's Won/Loss record throughout the league and it is: 1229 - 1231 should be 1230 wins to 1230 losses...right? must be one winner and one losser per game, i thought. Looks like hollinger needs to go back to the drawing board. haha. or am i being too hard on him.
No matter what I just can believe Hollinger's formula actually predicted Spurs to finish with 35-47. Had it assumed that Manu and Parker would be out for the season? I will just forget the prediction for now.
Don't have time to check. My guess is that since he is using probabilities, the results are rounded to the nearest integer. (e.g. If a team was predicted to win 44.364 games. It would be rounded to 44 games. Another team with 56.643 would be rounded to 57 games.) It is possible that the rounding gives the losing side one more game.
Hollinger's rankings only account for box scores. They don't know that we have injuries to four of our first six rotation players. JVG said it best on Wednesday when we said we have the most potential for improvement among any team in the NBA, and that when it came down to it only LA and Boston could rival us in talent. Just give it time.
It's still early, but I don't like our chances as well. It would take a TMAC from two yrs ago to takes us to the next level. Right now, he's not even playing as well as a guy like john salmons.
Again ... Hollinger did not arrive at that number. Hollinger's formula just spits out that number. That number will change into something more realistic as the season progresses. This is what I like about Hollinger's rankings. They're not subjective, and you can't accuse him of being biased or ignorant ... because they're not actually "his". They're just computer output, but towards the end they usually turn out to be pretty darn good.
