Watching the beginning of the Boston game the other night got me thinking again about a subject I have long pondered: free throws. This was an issue to me back in the Championship days, as well as the SF3 days, and watching our early success against the Celts the other night reminded me of it again. The premise is this: Each quarter, both teams get to spend 5 fouls before putting the opponents in 'the penalty', after which any foul sends the victim to the stripe. What has always concerned me is what happens to the first five fouls prior to the penalty phase. Those are free points, potentially adding up to anywhere from 20 to 40 extra points *per game*. And I have never seen anyone really talk about it. The thing is, back in the 90's, and also in the SF3 years (and this may just be a false perception on my part), it seemed as though every night we were leaving a ton of points out on the floor because of a lack of aggression in the early parts of each quarter. Sure, we would eventually get into the bonus situation each quarter, sometimes early, sometimes with 90 seconds left in the quarter, but it seemed that rarely were we ever taking free throws during those first five fouls each quarter. The fouls always seemed to be 'away from the ball', or 'reach in' or 'plowing through a pick' type fouls, and it seemed that we were getting fouled but not taking FT's until after the first five (generally speaking of course). I don't know if there are any stats kept on such a thing, but if there are, I would be very interested to see it broken down team-by-team. Anyway, fast-forward to the Boston game the other night (and really all of the few games so far this year as well). At the beginning of the game, at least, the Rockets were aggressively attacking on offense, and getting fouled and shooting free throws *during the first five fouls* of the quarter. It's no coincidence that we jumped out to an early lead. So the question I have for any of you guru's who know how to massage the stats is this: considering the fact that prior to the penalty phase in each quarter (first five fouls), each fouls could be worth either zero (non-shooting foul), one (foul on a made shot), or two (foul on a missed shot) free throws (thus the maximum potential of up to 40 extra points each game), does the data exist out there regarding how many points each team averages *per foul prior to the bonus situation* per game? To me, it is a reflection of being aggressive offensively, combined with the savviness to know those free points are sitting there for the taking and deliberately focusing on maximizing the opportunities to get them. Having Artest out there at the beginning of each quarter, therefore, to me, is a must, even when Battier comes back, for this very reason, because he is extremely aggressive from the opening tip. And especially now that we seem to have learned how to shoot the dang shots this year. I am sure I am not explaining this well enough, but I would really love it if anyone was able to come up with a legit stat for this. Thanks
I have often wondered why we as a team don't target specific player and to try to get them in foul trouble. Foul trouble messes up rotations and creates mismatches in our favor. This is something that could of swung the Celtics game in our favor. Had Tracy and Ron driven to the basket more, and drew more fouls, Boston would have played alot less aggresive defensively.
its an interesting question, although i think its something that's a very dangerous game to play. put simply, nothing related to the officiating is under any team's control, so trying to integrate a strategy of point-productive non-penalty foul shots is basically relying on the officiating as a part of your offensive gameplan. i think all teams encourage aggressive play on the offensive end regardless. that's why we hear every team talk about penetration, second chance baskets, and keeping an attacking mentality once a defense is distorted. i have not seen data on FT on non-penalty fouls, so I don't know if it's tracked. I understand your point about these being essentially free points, but i think it's tracking officiating more than it's tracking the productivity of your team's offense. things like continuation and block/charge would be huge discretionary variables, at least as i am imagining this. the other half of this would be: once in the penalty, how many free points via FT does a team get, that would have been non-FT fouls if they were not in the penalty?
Small point, but it's the first 4 fouls. The fifth is penalty shots, and each foul after as well. A team can get a maximum of 32 free throws from non-penalty situation fouls in regular play. I don't know of any public access (ESPN, etc) housing of those stats, but I'm sure that teams keep track of them internally. Your point is dead on - getting trips to the line can be a huge factor in winning games. It's not just the opportunities for "free" points (and-1 situations), but it breaks down the defense in two ways: (1) you can get a "high percentage shot" without working your offense at all - just a hand check in a penalty situation. It's easier on your team. (2) saddle opponents with fouls and you either take them out of the game or force them to play conservatively on defense. It's why going to the basket is such a staple, and why it's not usually a good thing to be a jump shooting team. Dominant centers have the easiest time getting their squad into the bonus, and that's why you need guards to be able to slash. Again, don't know about team stats for this, but I always keep an eye on things like FTA per min or FTA per shot. Great indicators of who in the league is best at getting to the line. Shaq: 0.58 (!!!) FTA/FGA (all numbers career) Dwyane Wade: 0.53 Karl Malone: 0.50 Wilt: 0.50 Yao: 0.47 Paul Pierce: 0.46 Kobe: 0.41 LeBron: 0.41 Artest: 0.37 Jordan: 0.36 Dream: 0.36 McGrady: 0.34 Kevin Durant: 0.32 Rashard Lewis 0.26 *numbers not meant as an indicator of "who's the best player" If these numbers mean anything, it gives an idea of who has a knack for drawing fouls. Pierce gained a rep for being a 4th quarter killer for his ability to draw and-1 situations to ice games, and rightfully so. I personally think Wade is the beneficiary of an absurd amount of phantom calls (his Finals appearance being a major example), but it's clear that he generates a ton of opportunities to get to the line and single-handily gets Miami into the bonus a lot. I don't think it's a coincidence that Rashard Lewis has yet to make the conference finals..... Evan
I am so surprised that Yao's number is higher than Dream in this list. Also, no Aversion name is on the list. Interesting. Shaq: 0.58 (!!!) FTA/FGA (all numbers career) Dwyane Wade: 0.53 Karl Malone: 0.50 Wilt: 0.50 Yao: 0.47 Paul Pierce: 0.46 Kobe: 0.41 LeBron: 0.41 Artest: 0.37 Jordan: 0.36 Dream: 0.36 McGrady: 0.34 Kevin Durant: 0.32 Rashard Lewis 0.26
iverson isnt up there bacause the denominator is fga shaq is up there because he cant make free throws (hack a shaq)
