I know there are a lot of polls and prediction threads, I am hoping to get a very quick, non-contentious one started with people's electoral vote and popular vote predictions. I am going with: Electoral: Obama: 326 McCain: 212 Popular: Obama (+4%) ABC news has a good calculator (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/), as do many sites. I would love to see Obama do better - i think the absolute Barackiest landslide would be O: 375 M: 163, + 7% popular, but I think that's if everything goes his way.
375 (which is my optimistic prediction here - I think 364 is slightly more likely) doesn't represent everything going his way. 375 gives him all swing states besides GA, AZ, MT and ND. He has a chance in each of those states. The "Barackiest" landslide would include all the above and give him a total of 406.
You're right, but I am not putting much hope on the those four, i think they're out of reach. I did calls to MT and OH this weekend at a frigging presposterously well organized phone bank in NoCal for about 7 hours, and I think MT is a nonstarter (If he happens to win MT by three votes, you're welcome.). I know it is not a representative sample, but in my anecdotal experience, the vibe was not encouraging. I'd go crazy if he won 375, I would love to see it. Also totally anecdotal, but Ohio seemed like a total zoo. People waiting in line five hours to vote early. They have all received a million calls, and I called people who were on their cell phones in line waiting. Mostly Barack, but the phone list was way more weighted Obama than the MT list, which was barely sorted. A little, not much. And you know, most of the McCain-ies were really cool on the phone. The dialogue was by and large respectful, which was really nice to see. Considering I was calling them on a Saturday, most everyone was polite and respectful.
Same here, like the Rockets going through a season without injuries, I can't even begin to imagine it.
306-232, Obama wins. McCain squeaks out Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, but loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado & Nevada
^ That's my low end prediction. I expect it to be somewhere between 306 - 406. I'm predicting 375 here and I predicted 390 (adding GA) on dailykos, but my more rational guess is 364.
p.s. to CBFC: 1. Good on you for volunteering. 2. You're probably right about MT, but Ron Paul could shake things up there.
Sticking with my original... Obama 306 McCain 232 Obama takes PA, VA, OH, CO, and NM McCain takes NV, FL, MO, GA
