Here are mine: Popular vote margin: Obama by 8% (actual number depends on barr/nader) Electoral Vote Margin: Obama with 382 EV Miscellaneous: Coleman beats Franken Hagan beats Dole Bachmann loses to whoever her challenger is Obama wins one of Arizona, Montana, or a Dakota Obama wins Georgia Obama wins Pennsylvania by only 5% Early exit polls suggest a much tighter race than the end result Dems get 58 Senate seats (including Sanders/Lieberman) Dems gain 28 House seats
I'm still standing by my prediction that this election will be close. I think Obama will win the popular vote with a 4% margin and the electoral college around 300. I think in the end the electoral map won't look too much different than 2004 with only a few states switching over. For the senate races the only one I've been following is the MN race and I think its a tossup. I was thinking a week ago that Franken might win a squeaker due to Obama's coat tails at this point I'm not sure. For the Bachman-Tiklenberg US House race I think Tinklenberg wins a close one. The district is still a Republican district and Bachman has turned up the heat on Tinklenberg going very negative accusing him breaking the law while Transportation commissioner. Those attacks have excited her base but are hurting her even more among moderates since those attacks aren't supported well by the facts.
Obama will not win Georgia. But it won't matter. I too believe that the Democrats won't get 60, but that Dole will lose. That last ad where a woman that sounded like her opponent said "There IS not God!" had me on the floor. It was too similar to that Arrested Development episode.
Obama looks to be in very good position despite losing some states the past two weeks. If you count up Obama's safe states it totals 264 electoral votes the lowest in the safe state's he's leading by is 7.8% so i don't see any safe states switching over in the next two days, so that leaves Obama needing 6 electoral votes, he's ahead in a comfortable margin in enough states to give him over 300 votes. Mccain's been making up some ground but with less than two days left he's a little too late.
I'm gonna go with Donna Brazile... Winner: Obama Electoral College: Obama 343 Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans oh! and dump Lieberman
I'm going to be the first to predict Obama will surpass expectations and win more than 400 electoral votes.
Obama wins the election. McCain wins Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. Florida and Virginia go blue. Democrats get 55-56 seats. I am just splitting difference between 51(current) and 60 seats. Dole is gone from the Senate.
Obama gets 350-375 electoral votes and wins the popular tally by 7%. Dems get 56 senate seats (excluding Sanders and Leiberman).
awfully optimistic. hope so. but this is my more cautious call. i'll go with obama with 5% and 326. includes the nm, co, nv, va, nc, ohio. plus kerry states and iowa. as far as senate i'll predict warner, the udalls, begin, shaheen, merkeley and hagan. im not convince on coleman. so a conservative 56 plus sanders. im not counting lieberman. house i don't know. at least 250. just don't know enough to predict more. in harris we sweep everything except county judge and that's because of stupid ike.
via TPM -- A new national poll is going beyond saying Obama is ahead: It's predicting that Obama will win by six points. The final Pew poll predicts that the outcome will be Obama 52%, McCain 46%, with the remainder split among third-party candidates.
I predict an Obama win with a close popular vote, under 4%, and an electoral victory much larger... 300 or better. Of course, I really hope I'm wrong, that it's a blowout, and we get 60 seats in the Senate, but that's my prediction. I see Obama winning Virginia (Warner is winning by an enormous margin, and I think that in this case, Obama rides his coattails), Nevada (Largest percentage of foreclosed homes in America, huge numbers who still own their homes, but are paying mortgages on homes currently worth less than what they owe... this will make the difference. I bet damn near everyone in the state knows someone in that fix), Colorado (trend is towards the Democrats before this election. The convention was there, it's ripe for the picking, and Barack will grab it). I think he'll lose Florida. Voter suppression, despite Crist bucking the GOP and adding 12 hours this weekend to early voting, will be the difference. The fact that the lines are so absurd there during early voting is hurting turnout already. I've read about many people giving up after over 4, 6, 8 hours, sometimes much longer, in line. People have to work! They can't afford to take off, many of them, and in my opinion, this is deliberate on the part of the GOP, regardless of what Crist may do. The name matching, which is rediculous, is another tool to affect the vote by tossing valid ones out. It should be unconstitutional. I'm not holding my breath on that. The same thing (voter suppression), in my opinion, is happening elsewhere. It may cost Barack North Carolina, his slim chance at Georgia, and puts a win in Ohio in great jeopardy. I'm not going to pick Ohio one way or another. I think it depends on just how successful the GOP machine is in their attempt, IMO, to steal the election there. The Montanas and Dakotas of this election? Who the hell knows. I do think that Missouri might break its streak of going the way of the winner. Barack just might take it, but he will win whether he takes the state or not. It's very tight. Pennsylvania? Very, very close. I hope we see the Clintons campaigning there again before Tuesday. Another visit by Obama would be good, if he can fit it in. If Obama loses there, despite the polls? He still wins the election, but by a closer electoral vote. I think Barack wins there, but it shouldn't be this close, this late. That's all I've got right now.
I'd be in favor of someone starting one last prediction thread on Tuesday morning, since predictions keep changing. But mine, as of today, is pretty much what it has been since June or July at least -- and what it has been really since the idea of an Obama candidacy was first mentioned and most other people balked: Landslide. I guess I'll predict Obama with 364 EV's. I'm going out on a limb there and giving him tiebreakers in FL, OH, VA, NC, NV and CO and also giving him 1 out of 2 of MO and IN. By guessing 364 I'm denying him GA and AZ as well as MT, ND, SD. I can easily see him losing FL and OH. I can also easily see him losing IN and MO. But I can just as easily see him winning all the above plus GA. (In some ways I'm more confident in GA than OH or FL.) And I don't pretend to have a gut feeling about MT, ND, etc. My real prediction is it could be anywhere between 306 and 400+. But I don't see any scenario where Obama is under 300. I also predict Obama will win the popular vote by 4-6 points. Just to go on record, as of today I'll guess he wins by 5. As for the Senate, I think Dems will pick up 7-8 seats (MN is the wildcard there) and that GA will go to a runoff. If pressed, I'd guess the Dems would win that runoff, leaving us with either 59 or 60 depending on what happens in MN. I haven't been paying enough attention to the House races to make a prediction there.
I predict I will be happy the day after the election until reality sets in and realize the economy is going to suck for a long time.
Not to burst anyones bubble but this is the final polling before the New Hampshire Democratic primary. RCP Dem Primary What I find interesting is Mason Dixon was the closest in the last few days with a 2 point lead for Obama and they still were 4.6 off. If Mason Dixon is correct again (And remeber we are not considering the Clinton defects) McCain wins all the red states and a couple of blue. Who knows, but one thing is for sure, you can't depend on the polls.
I'll modify slightly the 372 I put down here... http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=3944135&postcount=12 375 100+ Dems in House. 60 in Senate. Surprise: At least one of GA, SC, or LA go Obama.
Dude, I didn't realize the state of New Hampshire was the only one that got to vote! What a find... this guy's a genius!!!
