Does anyone know ensberg's minor league OBP? Also ideally, adam everett would step up and be the 2 hitter.
BTW, I don't see Ward as a prototypical 2, but he could be much better than anyone we've had there in a while. Here's my argument against using ward 6th. I'd rather have Ward's bat #2 over #6 because he will get more swings. My guess is #2 hitters get 0.3 more at bats/game as #6 hitters. I'm guessing this will be about 3 homers. Not a big deal, except for the fact that these extra homers will be at the end of the game, Biggio can't be walked to get to a weak hitter, and more than likely there was a pinch hitter for the pitcher. Yeah, there are plenty of times Ward is going to short circuit an inning, but every other potential #2 has a problem near equal to Ward's . When I look at the positives, Ward offers many that Everett, Ausmus, and Hidalgo do not. Engsberg...too much pressure for a rookie, but that depends on his spring and his character. If you haven't realized, I've sick of weak #2 hitters and would take a chance on an unorthodox strategy of placing a power hitter #2. This could be Custer leading his troops into an ambush or a baseball innovation that's only been seen before on Joe Joe's video games. I'd give this experiment about 18 games.
About 0.396+/- .003 Everett is who I'd want at #2 ideally if he could hit for average and get onbase a lot because his speed would outweigh the advantages of Ward.
Most AC columns are less stat oriented, but there is one or two guys there that really get into it. Check the back issues of the person who did the strikeout column, it might be him. Arky Vaughn, I believe his name is? Not sure. But my favorite on that site is Andy Zipp just because he is hilarious.
Gee, haven...don't let Manny see your post!! I'm "already wrong"...and I'm "wrong at a prima facie level??" that's classic, haven! 1. Bonds and Bagwell are great hitters...they're not great hitters in the playoffs. There is a time to shorten up your swing and just get on base...which is EXACTLY what Bagwell did this last season! Please understand that I'm not saying Tony Gwynn is a better hitter than Barry Bonds....what I'm simply saying is that's it's nice to have a Tony Gwynn to set the table for a Barry Bonds...and it's nice to have some contact hitter somewhere in the lineup who is capable of simply moving a runner into scoring position. 2. I didn't say you shouldn't have a Bonds or Bagwell in your lineup...but you need a mix...you don't need 6 Bagwells on your team...someone has to be willing and able to move a runner over. 3. Whether or not a K is worse than a groundout is completely predicated on the context within which it's done...i'm betting chris truby wishes he would have ground out and drove in the game tying run from third in the late innings of game 2 of the playoffs last year. Obviously, IF the defense does their job and IF there is no runner to be moved over, there is no difference between a K and a groundout. All I'm saying, haven, is that I want the lineup to be more balanced. I love Bagwell, and having a guy on your team like him is fantastic. But in the playoffs, it's nice to have a mix of sluggers and contact hitters....we don't have that mix. If this team could have gotten Juan Pierre, I guarantee you Hunsicker would have pulled the trigger and traded Ward for him. His value in the field and at the plate would be amazing for this team, in my opinion.
Yeah, Arky is pretty much a stat-geek, he writes about an article a month. The "Minor Opinions" column is definitely the best in-depth look at the 'Stros minor league prospects that I've found. Check the back issues. quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Originally posted by Stickfigure I wonder what is going to happen next year when Jason Lane is ML-ready ... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bye Bye Ward. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have you seen Lane play, KidRock? It's not a stretch to say that he's a worse defensive outfielder than Ward, while having proven nothing offensively above the AA level.
I guess we just approach the game, differently. Sure, there are times when you want someone who makes contact. But I think that one has to go with the law of averages. Yeah, it's bitten us in the ass. But teams with sluggers aren't destined to lose. And aggregately, I think it's a good gamble. You're right: it is a gamble. I'll admit that. But I don't think sluggers perform poorly in the playoffs, historically. It's just that ours have. And that's what you're looking at. Oh well... but still, there is no correllation as far as we can see, between team success and strikeouts. In any event... perhaps we should just get a player that hits 1, and have done with it .
Have teams tried to shift on Ward? If he's at the two spot they might try it with runners on base. Ward has decent power to all fields, but can scorch it to right.
Ward leading spring in RBIs despite playing in Grapefruit league. 20 RBIs and 9 runs in 66 Atbats. RBIs + Runs scored - HRS = 26 Considering At Bats, that number is huge.
Is the Grapefruit League less of a hitting league in spring training? What is the derivation of that formula and what exactly does it tell you? What is normal, on an at-bat basis?
The cactus league is more of a hitters league and I would expect someone over there to lead it. The stat, I forget what it is called, basically tells how many runs a player was involved in by either scoring or hitting in the run. HRs are subtracted to keep from counting one run twice since a player hits in himself. Over a season, I'd expect the number 2 hitter to get 617 at bats. "Runs involved" = 617*(26/66) = 243 runs. The astros scored 847 runs of which 243 from one player would be nice. Sosa is the only player I see that came close to this stat last year and he had an amazing 242. Helton and Bags are also up there in the 220s. Bonds was hampered because no one was hitting him in and getting on base in front of him.
Gotcha. Although it neglects to take into account moving the runners through pop-flies or the like, but I'd imagine that would be much less of a quantitative judgement.
The final score is the only perfect stat. I always cringe when I hear the phrase, "The score is deceiving".
Joe Joe Why not mention: Bagwell - 24/46 Hidalgo - 17/42 Ginter - 15/38 Zinter - 14/22 Berkman - 21/53 All of their ratios are better than Wards.
For many reasons, but most of all.....I wanted to know if Ward was scoring runs and saw him with a great ratio in a tenth of a season's atbats. I wasn't looking at the team as a whole, but this explains all those high astros scoresa I see on ESPN little ticker. If two out of the Bags, Berk, Dawgie, and Ward put up numbers at 90% of these ratios, the Astros will lead the national league in runs scored.
