First round upsets - call your shot, look like a genius

Alright let me look at my upsets for tomorrow:

I've already mentioned I'm taking # 11 BC over # 6 Texas. I also like # 11 Penn over # 6 California and # 13 San Diego State over # 4 Illinois.

Hopefully these upsets will make up for the choke by # 4 USC tonight.

UNC Wilmington??? I've heard of UNC and UNC Charlotte, but Wilmington?

 

Damn, Look at Creighton, Forcing OT.

I Like So. Ill. over Bobby Knight and BC over Texas.

 

Oh damn I'm 0 for 4 so far. Damn I'm a genius!!!

 

Can't believe Michigan State folded in the second half like that??

 

I don't think I'm ever picking a 5 seed to win again.

 

True. I picked Michigan State and when I saw they were up 30-18, I was congratulating myself for a great pick. Then NCST came back.

Dammit.

 

So, to all of you who jumped on the "Penn will upset Cal" bandwagon, I'm just curious ...

Was your picking Penn over Cal based on actual analysis or just random guesswork?

I'd really like to know.



Yeah, I know I picked Hawaii, but who cares? Go Bears!

 

Money. Exactly like the Mizzou game.

Penn has a player named Koko Archibong, I went with that.

 

That is some awesume picking. We were right Marquette wasn't good, but you did a hellova job overall!!.

 

I told you Cal can't shoot, and not just from the 3 point line. They had one of the worst offensive strecthes I have EVER seen. For the game they shot 31% from the field (surely the worst from last weekend) and 17% from 3 land, and barely 60% from the line.

The only problem was Cal showed their true colors in their 2nd game not the 1st. But it isn't like they couldn't have easily lost to Penn however. Take away a single of Cal's many lucky 3s by bad 3 point shooters (Cal shot better than normal behind the arc) and add one of Penn's 3s they usually make (they had some open looks they didn't make)--and this game turns on the last possession.

My overall reasoning went as follows. Good execution (e.g., Arizona) teams kill Cal. Penn is an execution team and outside shooting team (note: I am not equating them to Arizona who also has size and moderate quickness). The logic wasn't that far off. The half court execution and long range shooting advantages of Penn was almost enough to overtake Cal's size and quickness advantage, just not quite. If Penn could keep it within a basket late I liked their chances (again it wasn't far off).

Cal in my mind was the single Pac 10 team with the most obvious limitations in terms of a lack of a smooth set offense or having a consistent go to guy when things get bogged down (USC was better they just got caught with their pants down). You did see that the next round by a team that had with size and quickness totally obliterating Cal's offense.

 

Man, I don’t know what your beef is against Cal. Stanfurd grad, perhaps?

I give you credit for having put thought into the pick – my beef was with the numerous prognosticators (not just on this BBS but all over the country) who made picked Penn over Cal just because it was the trendy upset pick in the first round. Sure Penn was a good ball club this year, but you don’t finish third in one of best conferences in America by accident.

Interesting, though, that you wait to respond to my post about the first round game until after the second round in which Cal played the Big East regular season champion in their hometown. Makes you look pretty smart being able to reference Cal’s admittedly pathetic stretch of 11 minutes withouth a field goal against Pitt when answering my question about a completely different game. You use the statistics on the Pitt game to defend your assertion that Cal “can’t shoot.” The numbers from that game are atrocious. But you could pick any random game from any team not called Duke or Kansas or Maryland, etc. and find a game where they went cold. So you get to look like a genius. But consider:

· In two games against Pac 10 regular season champ Oregon, Cal shot 57% and 51% from the field (including 11-17 from behind the arc in one win).

· In beating USC (who you say was better) by 19 points one week before the end of the regular season Cal shot 58% from the field.

In other words, statistics from one game don’t really prove a point. Inconsistent? Absolutely. “Can’t shoot.” Not quite.

And give Pitt credit for playing great defense. Cal couldn’t handle tough Big East D – that’s undeniable. And once Cal got frustrated in the second half they started to try to make up the whole lead at once by launching three pointers. As you rightly point out, Cal’s lack of a go-to guy to slowly cut into the lead killed them against Pitt’s suffocating D. But you’ve also got to admit that Cal’s repeated desperation shots during the second half against Pitt contributed to their unusually low field goal percentage.

If you think that Cal’s “true colors” are 31% shooting from the field, then there’s really no point in trying to debate. Just like your blanket assertion that “Good execution (e.g., Arizona) teams kill Cal.” Name one team other than Arizona or Pitt (or South Florida) that consistently “killed” Cal. Answer: you can’t.

 

Yeah, I went overboard a bit, but it was in response to a claim that the Penn pickers didn't have a clue for their prediction.

Nothing personal, I just thought Cal is the least dangerous and most overachieving turney team from the Pac 10, that all. Arizona--certainly no Maryland, Kansas, or Duke this year, just handles them easily with defensive execution and far superior individual offensive go-to players. I knew Cal wouldn't last long in the turney, that's all. As for shooting well against Oregon, Oregon isn't much of a defensive team either (Wake ripped them defensively, and would have won if Oregon's offense was a notch less efficient then they were). I suspect we will find this out (Oregon has way overlooked weaknesses) by this weekend.

I didn't respond earlier because I hadn't looked at ClutchCity since last thursday morning. But I did detail the game with Penn as much as the Pitt one. Again, had Penn hit only 1 more open three they usually hit and the Cal guys missed 1 extra three try odds are they do miss, that game does turn on the final play. Cal is better than Penn, but it wasn't a total mismatch and I thought the intangibles for Penn might be enough if they could be only a bucket down late or so. That was a good close game, not up to the Creighton-Florida one, but still a good game.

Again though, no ill will toward the Bears. Good luck next year except when playing daddy (Cats). Now ill-will & Duke, that is another matter