Name who you think will be the top 5 rookies this upcoming season. Put them in order if you like. Then discuss. My top 5: Greg Oden - Will have a big impact on defense and get slam dunks on offense. Has had zero pain in his knee and has been going hard in 5 on 5 scrimmages for almost a month. Michael Beasley - He could have a special rookie season because of his incredible offensive skills. I'm curious to see how many rebounds he gets. I predict the lack of maturity will not affect his rookie year. Needs to stay out of Riles' doghouse. Will get abused on defense. Kevin Love - I have doubts about his long-term upside, but he will hit the ground running and benefit from playing next to Al Jefferson. Jefferson will also benefit from Love. O.J. Mayo - The guy can flat out shoot the ball and score. The big question for me: How disciplined will his shot selection be? There is a great temptation to gun on a bad team because they have nothing to lose. I have no faith in Mark Iavaroni's ability to coach this team. Jerryd Bayless - Not getting much attention but I think he has the "it" factor. His shooting, penetration and incredible athleticism should translate very well as a rookie. Bayless is my choice for "most surprising rookie". IMO, summer league was a preview of what he will eventually do in the NBA. Other comments: Derrick Rose may not have the best rookie season, but he was the right choice for the Bulls. It's tough for rookie PGs in the NBA. It's much easier for players who focus just on scoring or defense. The Knicks made a HUGE! mistake by drafting Danilo Gallinari. (That is probably a consensus by now so I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this one). Robin Lopez may end up being a better player than his twin brother Brook Lopez even though he was drafted 5 spots later. Brook Lopez' lack of athleticism will hamper his NBA career. With all the talk about Rudy Fernandez, I don't think he's going to make much of an impact as a rookie until late in the season. The adjustment will be tough for him. Long term, the guy has serious upside potential but I feel the 08/09 season will amount to shock therapy. The best thing that ever happened to Donte Green's market value was the 40-point open game at summer league. It inflated everyone's opinion. Green doesn't impress me that much and he will barely register as a blip on the screen this year. I don't think much of him long term either.
The scary thing is that you've got two of the Blazer's rookies in the top 5, and another that you say might have an impact later in the season. Imagine if that team actually does stay together for a few years. It'll be hard when it comes time to re-sign some of their guys.
They'll have bird rights on everyone and Paul Allen won't hesitate to pay the luxury tax. I think Beasley will be epic offensively. Definitely 21+ppg. Not sure about Oden, stats-wise. He'll clean glass but won't score much given the plethora of other options on that team. I think OJ Mayo will be terrific and has a chance to be the best perimeter player taken in this draft. Donte Green is trash. Not sure where all the hype is coming from about him. He will be a decent role player at best. Look, I don't care how athletic you are, if you can't either A) dribble a basketball or B) post up, you are a role player at best. To even maximize that, you had better be a lights out shooter, which he is not. He will be a very poor man's version of Tim Thomas.
Here's a few predictions: Jason Thompson to be in an 'all rookie team' George Hill to show quite a lot in limited minutes for the Spurs. Mayo will be terrible Gallinari will be good.
I really don't think Oden will be the NBA player everyone is expecting him to be. I see some good numbers, but I imagine he'll be considered a better "college player" when it's all said and done. But hey, it would be nice to see another center do well. I miss the real battlers of the past (Hakeem,Ewing,Sea Princess etc...).
I'd still be eyeing at the Blazers roster every now and then and keep tabs on who's getting the minutes and who isn't. Someone isn't going to get the minutes that they want and will want out to another team that can give them more.
His name is Travis Outlaw. He will be gone sometime this season or over next summer. Personally, I think he's peaked as a player and Pritchard will trade him while his value is high. They should get a veteran rotation player in return. Channing Frye has no future there either. Sergio Rodriguez is a dead Blazer walking (as someone else put it). That will get them down to 8 1/2 solid rotation players. If Martell Webster doesn't finally step up some, he might be traded instead of Outlaw, but the Blazers would get very little for him.
They should have jumped all over Battier when the package was available. That's the type of veteran presence that would really fast track that young team towards the elite. IMHO.
I wouldn't mind Webster or Outlaw as bench energy guys but I don't know their contract situation. Remember we got Mario Elie in a similar situation where the Blazers had a glut of players and we just gave up 2nd round pick for him.
Both guys make ~$4 million. Outlaw is signed for this season and next. Webster can be tendered a qualifying offer next summer. Webster isn't what anyone would call an energy guy. Outlaw fits the bill but he wants to start so he can get shots and build his value for the summer of 2010 when he is unrestricted.
Good thread. Helpful food for thought with Fantasy drafts approaching. I reckon Mayo will be really good if he has the right attitude, which I think he does. Alot of people tend to want to thnk he's going to be a headcase - but I think he's had a bad wrap.
