I'm starting to get an uneasy feeling about Ike. Models are starting to zero in on the middle Texas coast. That's far enough way that although we'd be on the "dirty" side of the storm we'd escape most of the worst. The thing that concerns me is that Cuba did very little to disrupt Ike. It weakened it a bit but as Dr. Masters pointed out in his blog it already has an eyewall. We've seen many storms lately forecast to strengthen upon crossing the Yucatan or Cuba but unable to because their cores were disrupted so much. That doesn't seem to be the case here. One of things that I've learned is that the stronger a hurricane is the more it tends to curve poleward. As Ike gets closer and stronger I hope we don't see these models slowly curve northward toward us. We'll see but good luck folks oh, and go Astros!
The 0z models for September 10th are now out. The 0z GFS appears to have moved a little south of its last run. The 0z GFDL is almost identical to its previous run. The 0z HWRF is now in and around the same general area as the GFDL. The 0z UKMET has nudged a little bit further south towards Corpus Christi.
and for those that like the easier to read squiggly model ones but even then, these are junk. We will know much better by mid-day tomorrow.
Yup. Thanks, I will. I have plans to head to Santa Fe Friday afternoon but it looks like the storm might interfere.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html Evacuation order issued for Brazoria County coast Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle Sept. 10, 2008, 7:18AM As the path of Hurricane Ike became clearer, Brazoria County Judge Joe King early today ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal residents and a voluntary evacuation of the rest of the county. Residents of ZIP code 77541, which includes Freeport and other coastal regions, are subject to a mandatory evacuation. The evacuation for special-needs residents of 77541 will begin at 10 a.m., according to a statement issued by Steve Rosa, the county's assistant emergency management coordinator. Although the evacuation order was during the nighttime hours, the county's Web site and information phone line — 979-864-1064 — continued to say this morning that no evacuations have been called for. Officials said at 7 a.m. that the messages would soon be updated to include the evacuation orders.
I live in Victoria, and we are gonna ride it out no matter what. I have been thinking about my wife, 4 kids and 3 dogs sitting in the hallway for hours just waiting for it to be over.
Not really for coastal areas. Most of these places need three days to fully evacuate, particularly those with special needs (elderly, handicapped, etc). If you wait until tomorrow and the storm speeds up, you could be trying to evacuate millions in 36 hours. In areas outside the big city where roads are smaller, that is a tough thing to do.
No kidding...... Why get caught in traffic? Board up your place, get electronics to the highest point in the house...and bail the heck out.... I hope this thing doesn't strengthen... DD
Ike is moving NW now instead of WNW, don't want to see this movement much longer. I'm sure the forecast track will be shifted north if this path continues for much longer.
