[Ike] New Tropical Threat

wrong, expect the unexpected.


It looks good for SE Texas for now, but this thing could make drastic turns in the next 8-10 hours. I wouldn't say Houston is out of the woods until this storm is a few hours away from land fall. But this storm is taking a good path, and predictions are it could start going more Southwest than Northwest.

Mexico/Texas board is the perfect place for this thing to hit IMO. If the eye hits near Kings Ranch, it's a blessing.

 

New 06z models for Sep 9th are out.

06z GFDL

06z GFS

06z HWRF

06z UKMET


Little to no change in this run of models compared to the 0z runs.

 

so this isn't going to hit lousiana? is it safe to assume that?

 

As long as that high pressure system stays in place, this thing might not even make landfall in Texas.

 

It would appear that way. Houston is still in the dreaded cone of uncertainty, but we'll know by tomorrow. A couple of models are predicting a sharp turn northward before landfall, but we'll have to see if those are just outliers or if the other models predict a turn as well.

 

We can confirm that no one knows anything and that we all just sit around and wait for the next models to come out.

 

Well, I feel better but we don't know if Ike will take a north turn so I guess we gotta wait and see.

Going over Cuba definitely helped us out by avoiding a direct hit, (I assume we won't get a direct hit).

Maybe, we'll get some good soaking rain out of this but no high winds!

 

I think I must not understand this cone. Earlier, Mexico wasn't in the cone and now it is? What good is this cone anyway?

 

I think Jeff was being sarcastic with the dreaded comment. I think he's just saying there is still a chance it could head our way, so stay informed.

 

Fine, but I still don't understand the stupid cone. I thought of it as defining where a hurricane could go in a designated period of time. That apparently is not the case, so is the cone communicating anything at all?

 

it's where they think it could go at any given point...but it's subject to change as they gather more information.

 

It does. It just shows how unpredictable these things are

 

The cone of uncertainty is a weatherman's way of saying "we have no friggin' idea where it's gonna hit". Seriously, a 5-year-old child could look at the hurricane moving toward the gulf coast and say, "I think it will hit somewhere around here", drawing an area that encompasses Mexico to Louisiana.

AND... as I said before... if it's not even a cat 3 or greater, don't waste my time with it. A cat 1 or cat 2 will bring a little bit of rain with a good breeze... and that's about it.

Don't give in to the media sensationalism, people. They wag the dog each year with these hurricanes.

 

Latitude 25-N: The models have the storm going WNW until this point then almost due west. Let's see what this storm does at this latitudinal point.

 

LOL dude wtf are you talking about!? A weak hurricane will bring "a little bit of rain"? Get a freakin clue. If that storm hits Galveston even at as a cat 1, you're going to notice. Allison as a tropical storm (like most TSs) dumped a crap load of rain on us, and you think a slightly stronger version of a TS wouldn't do the same?

There is some serious ignorance about hurricanes going on over here.

Tell you what. Why don't you go ahead and head on over to Corpus or Brownsville or where ever the hell that thing is going to hit, try to ride that thing out, and let us know if there was a little bit of rain with a nice breeze associated with it. Good God

 

Lots of anger in this thread. Let me introduce you guys to the ignore list.

 

Hyperbole?



BEEE LEEEVE IT.

 

First of all, I'm talking about Houston. Not Galveston. Not Corpus. Not Brownsville.

Second... you're right: if it hits as a cat 1, you're going to notice. You'll notice good wind and some rain.... and that's about it.

Allison was not a hurricane. It was a TS that formed just off shore and took the entire Houston area by surprise. It dumped a huge amount of rain on us.
...
... but that's an entirely different type of storm than Ike. And it's different than the other hurricanes that come up from south of Florida.

Yeah - Houstonians remember TS Allison. And people Houstonians remember hurricane Alicia, the cat 3 hurricane from 1983.

But if you ask Houstonians about the devastation of hurricane Bonnie (1986)...
or hurricane Chantal (1989)....
or hurricane Jerry (also in 1989)....
or even last year's hurricane Humberto (2007).... people give you the confused-puppy look because they don't remember them. Why? Because they were all cat 1 hurricanes: some wind. some rain... and that's all.