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Can the Repubs win another cater-to-the-base election?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by SamFisher, Sep 4, 2008.

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Can the "increase-the-base" strategy work for the Repubs?

  1. Yeah it can work again

    14 vote(s)
    36.8%

  2. No its time has past

    15 vote(s)
    39.5%

  3. All your base are belong to us

    9 vote(s)
    23.7%
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  1. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    In 2004 Rove's master plan, contrary to conventional wisdom at the time, was not to run to the center but "increase the base" it worked obviously.

    At first glance this doesn't seem to be Senator McCain's natural strategy. But Candidate McCain, who has renounced all of the trappings of senator McCain, has embraced the divisive policies of 2004 Bush (tax cuts for the rich! more war! go big oil!)

    The Palin pick (a social conservative hardliner, the icon of Focus-on-the-Family type religious zealots) and her sappy small-town rural America schlock seems to reconfirm that the Rove "increase-the-base" strategy is back in vogue for Republicans, after its disastrous failure in 2006. The safe, centrist swing-vote pick would have been Lieberman, but he was shunted aside in favor of a virtual nobody.

    Can it work for one last hurrah? I say probably not. I think demographic trends, espeically out west, are too against this stuff from working, and I think other issues, like the environment, are starting to overwhelm it.
     
    #1 SamFisher, Sep 4, 2008
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Sure it can work again, if the Dems don't come out in full force and support Obama.

    I don't think McCain has a chance in hades of winning on policies.....so we shall see.

    DD
     
    #2 DaDakota, Sep 4, 2008
  3. Joshaaronb

    Joshaaronb Member

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    Look, the pure truth is that there are more conservative to moderate conservatives in this nation than hard leaning lefts. McCain an Palin are a dangerous duo in that most moderates understand that McCain is not a hard line conservative in the mold of "W" and that is appealing. Palin has come on the scene and energized the base and could really be the tide turner in this race. This argument doesn't even take into account the male to female voting ratios.
     
    #3 Joshaaronb, Sep 4, 2008
  4. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost Member

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    Repubelikkan Polihtakul Strategery

    2000: RACE TO THE MIDDLE

    2002: BOO!!

    2004: BOO!!

    2006: BOO!!

    2008: BOO!!
     
    #4 DonnyMost, Sep 4, 2008
  5. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The GOP "base" is smaller than 2004 so the answer is definitely no. I don't think the Republicans will be able to dumb down the election this time and suppress voter turnout with negative campaigning. McCain will have to grab a large number of swing voters because people are going to flood the polls this November 4th. I predict a record turnout. I also think early voting will blow away previous records by a mile.

    The only way McCain can win is for the Obama campaign to have a huge gaff, larger than the gaff of McCain choosing Sarah Palin.
     
    #5 A_3PO, Sep 4, 2008
  6. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Is that why national polling shows people identifying themselves as Democrats leading those identifying themselves as Republicans by a 15-20 point margin?
     
    #6 A_3PO, Sep 4, 2008
  7. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    Not with this ticket. The base wasn't excited about McCain to begin with.
     
    #7 MadMax, Sep 4, 2008
  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    See I think the problem with this strategy is that the demographics have trended against this - the influx of Hispanics & young voters in western states and the softening of the evangelicals (the concept of global warming denial - A Palin staple, losing steam amidst Chrisitan "stewardship" theory e.g.) That's why states like COlorado & Montana(?) now have Democratic governors. Palin seems more like a throwback to the earlier "cowboy" days than a trendsetter.
     
    #8 SamFisher, Sep 4, 2008
  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Why was the base excited about George W in '04? That one I still have a hard time understanding.

    He was doing a crap job, why keep him in?

    DD
     
    #9 DaDakota, Sep 4, 2008
  10. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    The alternative was John Kerry. :)
     
    #10 MadMax, Sep 4, 2008
  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Exactly right. The party identification numbers have changed a lot since 2004 - the "base" strategy favors Obama this year.
     
    #11 Major, Sep 4, 2008
  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Major, I have to say, that I find your posts the most informative of everyone's on this BBS.

    DD
     
    #12 DaDakota, Sep 4, 2008
  13. Fatty FatBastard

    Fatty FatBastard Member

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    Why is every poll in D&D public?

    Man... This entire forum needs to go.
     
    #13 Fatty FatBastard, Sep 4, 2008
  14. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    FORUM MODERATOR TONE
    Not relevant to the discussion. Wrong Forum. Blah blah blah blah.
    /FORUM MODERATOR TONE

    Please go back to posting about your drinking problem and ACDC in the hangout.

     
    #14 rhadamanthus, Sep 4, 2008
  15. pirc1

    pirc1 Member

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    If you don't like it don't come in here. ;)
     
    #15 pirc1, Sep 4, 2008
  16. professorjay

    professorjay Member

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    Well Bush got elected to TWO terms, so I believe anything is possible.

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on U.S.
     
    #16 professorjay, Sep 4, 2008
  17. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    you said it wrong:

    There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
     
    #17 BigBenito, Sep 4, 2008
  18. glynch

    glynch Member

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    Yeah, they may very well vote for Bush and Palin because they are "reformers".

    Sadly It might take another 4 years of the government hating, war loving crowd with another unnecessary war or two, another round of being fleeced in unregulated mortgage and security markets, another attempt to destroy social security etc for them to avoid falling for the phony populist line.
     
    #18 glynch, Sep 4, 2008
  19. ROCKET RICH NYC

    ROCKET RICH NYC Member

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    I don't think Rove and Bush won by increasing the base. They won for 2 reasons...

    1)They counted on the rural voters (The coal miners, steel workers, farmers) to put them over the top. Lots of them were Independents. That is what put them over the top with the Democrat base.

    2)They expected the Kerry Campaign to implode because Dems are just not good at defending negative attacks.

    Well, the rural votes aren't going to be enough for McCain this time. The negative campaigns only increase each other's base (Dems and Repubs) but totally isolates the Independents. Many Independents will either be so mad at both parties they may just sit this one out.
     
    #19 ROCKET RICH NYC, Sep 4, 2008
  20. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    This is why I was thinking Obama or Hillary were the wrong choice....that there is still some closet racism and sexism...and this point in time is too crucial to waste this opportunity.

    Now, we shall see if Obama can overcome the latent racism, and take the Presidency, because if McCain wins....the country loses, because he will not have the house or the Senate and it will be 4 years of gridlock.

    The democrats are going to pick up even more seats in the house and senate...they need the Presidency too to effect true change.

    DD
     
    #20 DaDakota, Sep 4, 2008
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