I think we can now say pretty definitively that Obama got a convention bounce. The following polls were each conducted after the convention and after the Palin announcement: http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/wakeupcall.php Diaego/Hotline: Obama by 9 http://americanresearchgroup.com/ ARG: Obama by 6 http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug08bPostDemConv.pdf CBS News: Obama by 8 http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip USA Today: Obama by 7 http://www.gallup.com/poll/109954/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-6Point-Lead-49-43.aspx Gallup Daily Tracking: Obama by 6 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ial_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama by 6 He's leading by 6-9 points in every single poll. We'll see if McCain can make up that deficit with his convention bounce.
immediately after the palin announcement, it nullified or even decreased a bounce actually (gallup had obama lost 2 pts after palin announcement and rasmussen had no bounce). but now with all these news coming out, it actually goes up. so they REALLY need to address these rumors fast b/c it's hurting them during their convention.
Batman, kudos to you for having the chutzpah to continue posting about polls, after your Election Day 2004 debacle. That's balls!
technically, the new gallup poll is 50% obama, 42% mccain (fox news just released new #s). the good thing, obama finally is hitting 50% in a few polls.
Of course there was no debacle and I didn't post anything but facts on Election Day 04, but thanks, George! And kudos to you for having the balls to keep posting after chickening out on the bet and having been wrong about every single thing, from the trash lies about Obama to every Houston mayoral race since you became a member to the Iraq war to WMD's and on and on... Have you ever been right about anything? If so, link please. TIA. And TTB. Chicken.
Gallop is at 8 now. Here is a site I check back with. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
via TPM -- Trendline With the proviso that tracking polls are very sketchy indicators of of where a race stands, today's results from Gallup and Rasmussen appear to show a clear trend. Gallup has Obama moving to 50% for the first time ever, with an 8 point margin over John McCain (50% - 42%). Meanwhile, Rasmussen has Obama at 51% with a 6 point margin when 'leaners' are factored in (51%-45%). I cannot stress too much that tracking polls are very volatile, susceptible both to statistical news and ephemeral wobbliness in candidate support. But in line with a number of regular polls out in the last 24 hours, they show a clear trend. Obama's bounce appears to be continuing and expanding during the RNC. And if you look closer at the numbers, the trend is not so much McCain losing support as a clear movement of hitherto undecideds into Obama's column. --Josh Marshall
I've bounced bowling balls higher than the bounce Obama got. However, it's not the bounce that counts, it's the number of pins that go down at the end.
I think bounces get smaller as we become more polarized (the Kerry and Bush bounces in '04, for example, were 0 and 4 pts vs. something like 20+ for Clinton in 1992). But regardless, the bounce is temporary - the question is what will be sustainable. The polls are pretty much irrelevant at this point - we'll have a better idea a week from now after the GOP convention. Obama being above 50 is a good thing, but it's doubtful that it lasts unless the Palin news keeps trickling and offsets any GOP convention effects.
They ran a last-second "picket fence" play where a screen kept voters away from certain precincts in Ohio. Dubya came around the picket fence and gave a last kick to a voting machine as the horn sounded. He made it! It counts! W wins! (I still get misty thinking about it). And,
Does the polls factor in that liberterian candidate Bob Barr? That will put Mccain's number even lower won't it?
Looks like Kerry's biggest spread in 04 was about +3to+4, and Kerry never got over 48% support. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html Obama right now at +6.4 across all polls is a lot stronger than that--though he has yet to break 50% (at 49.2 right now). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html That said I would wait until the middle of next week to get a stronger reading--enough time for both conventions to get digested fully. Then it is on to the debates barring big controversies bubbling up.
Well Nader seems to have a bigger pull (probably hurting Obama-Biden) than Barr (McCain-Palin). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html Also, I think the Pailin pick pretty much took out any mojo Barr would have gotten. As an aside, since when has the Libertarian Party been taking over by Social Conservatives--that is weird??? Ron Paul I think would have been a little more authentic Libertarian than Barr (but Paul also is for anti-abortion laws--not a Libertarian principle). Barr to his credit, like Paul, is now for decriminalization or legalization of mar1juana (Barr used to be big into the Drug War).