From Eric Berger's Blog on chron.com How much can we trust the five-day forecast? 4:00 p.m. UPDATE: Tropical Storm Gustav should weaken this evening while passing over Jamaica, but for the reasons we discussed yesterday, it's very likely to strengthen considerably after crossing the small island. The official forecast track remains essentially unchanged, although there's a slight leftward turn at the end of the prediction. This is important, and worth spending a moment on. The bend reflects a new wrinkle from this afternoon's models, which show Gustav responding to another high pressure system that may develop to its north. This high could force the storm toward Texas, especially if Gustav's forward speed slows sufficiently during the coming days. Alas such variables are virtually impossible to predict at this time.
Well, I hope you all had a chance to visit New Orleans because if this computer model verifies its over. Ouch!
To the what to expect crowd, a cat 3 to cat 5 direct hit on the Galveston area would be catastrophic, extensive damage. A cat 5 would likely put twenty feet of water on the Texas City Y. As I recall, both Rita and Katrina hit at cat 3, though they were earlier cat 5 monsters in the gulf. A cat 5 hit is Andrew. I literally pray to God that we be spared that kind of horror. I live 125 miles from the coast and we have still not fully recovered from Rita, about twenty thousand dollars in damage. The East Texas area was literally shut down for over a week, but for some areas like Beaumont, it was weeks and weeks. A cat 5 into Galveston/Houston is a worst case scenario, that must not happen. Into N.O., the end of N.O. as we know it. Ask anyone who has been through 175-200 mph sustained winds. Imagine a 150 mi wide tornado. Hopefully we will not see anything like that, please God.
I'm a MeteoroLIEgist! I can tell you where Gustav will hit by next Tuesday @ midnight! So far, by my calculations, Gustav should hit anywhere between the Bay of Campeche and the Bay of Tampa!
With all the focus on N.O. which really just got an after storm flood, the damage west and especially east of N.O. didn't get much media attention. Bay St. Louis was totally destroyed by Katrina. A friend who did relief work there said they measured waterlines at 40 feet. Twenty something blocks were literally bulldozed by the surge. It is just hard to imagine what these storms can do. The Houston Galveston area has been sooooo fortunate for so long. I remember Carla (Cat 4, Galveston), Audry (Cameron, LA, but we had 100mph sustained winds in Galveston County, and Alicia which I think was a Cat 3. But since 1900, I don't think Galveston has had an Andrew or Camile, both Cat 5 at the time they hit.
If the European Weather Model is correct, HANNA's going to wrap around Miami and hit the energy infrastructure. That model came out at 220 EST today and natgas popped 30c. Worry about Hanna.
Yes I remember it like it was yesterday...thank God I left before it hit and I will leave waaay ahead of time if they even think it's coming around here.
Are they running out of names or what? We've probably been through every American name and now they're going all Eastern Europe on us. It should be a trip to see what they're calling them 10 years from now (maybe Asian names?)...especially since they feel like they have to name and hype it everytime someone farts in Cuba.
Care to interpret that model for us? I don't know how to read that, so to me I don't see anything showing it is a direct hit on NOLA.
Each of the last two nights the models have shifted west and each morning they've shifted back east. Eric Berger mentioned a "wrinkle" in his blog, now the models are picking up on it.
I have one saved as a graphics file from 2:00 am EDT today. so I would expect one at that same time on Friday and with perhaps a frequency of every six hours which would give 4 projections each day. Since they are graphics files, you might start saving some to see how much they vary as they recalculate the projected path.
According to the newest models, NOLA is screwed. They are going to take a direct hit or be on the dirty side of the storm. I get the feeling that the Saints and Hornets will not be playing their games in NO this year.
I was out of my house for 3 weeks. There are still places that haven't recovered and some that never will. I have a neighbor that still has a blue roof, although he is an idiot and probably will have one forever, but that is another story. With this one they are already meeting tomorrow to discuss school closing next Tuesday. With a holiday Monday they don't want to take a chance and wait. They want to let everyone know early enough to start planning. I have also heard some rumblings about the possibility of evacs for the coastal areas like High Island and Sabine Pass (both of which have been Storm entry points the last 2 years) starting Saturday evening. On a brighter note. I was sent this website http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ it shows animated sections of some of the major models. Pretty cool to slow them down and look at what they think will happen. Edit: I read Mango's post above. This sight actually has stored data of the runs too. You can look at past ones to see exactly what you are talking about. And yes most models run every 6 hours usually at 2 and 8 est.
