Just a heads up there is some weather out in the gulf that at this time has some potential (if it gets its act together, hopefully not though) to grace us with a tropical storm in or around Tuesday. Here is a link for the latest SciGuy Blog from the Chron that talks about this: Something wet this way comes...
If those models hold true, maybe we can get some much needed rain in Central Texas. It's been 100 or better for most of the last 2 weeks. Other than 1 day of scattered showers from Dolly, it's been bone dry here. We got out of drought after last summer and went right back into it. I think Austin has had something like 2" of rain since early May.
Here are some fresh model tracks (not even an hour old) from the Wunder Blog's Tropical/Hurricane section:
Models as of now, 10:30 PM Sunday for Edouard: Any info/talk about this? Looks like it's going to smack us (Houston Area) Tuesday morning.
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Looks like the Austin peps are going to get what they were asking for. Too bad we're gonna get the worst of it. Quick, everybody get to the grocery store and over react and buy a ton of bottled water!
How now? It's August 21....the guys who get paid to forecast hurricane seasons and receive tons of media attention for it called for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. We're at 6 named storms right now (Fay being the last one)...2 hurricanes (Bertha and Dolly)....and 1 major hurricane formed, Bertha which never came close to landfall. Are you betting the over? I'm not.
I'm definitely not betting the over, but we are in the absolute peak hurricane season that will last until the end of September. For us in Texas, we have four weeks left before our chances of getting a major hurricane dramatically diminishes. In fact, we've never had a major hurricane cross the Texas border after September 21 (Rita went across in Louisiana). But, the hurricane season lasts until November 1 and it is not all that odd to see fairly sizable storms in October in the Caribbean and Atlantic, so we could still reach double digits pretty easily and maybe even get up around 14-15 named storms. Right now, Fay should be gone in a few days and the one invest that is out in the Atlantic probably won't survive the dry air and wind shear right in front of it. There isn't anything else significant predicted for the next week, which is great, but the steering patterns beginning this weekend and continuing for the foreseeable future will not allow storms to re-curve and will actually drive more of them into the Gulf much like 2004 and 2005, so stay tuned...
Absolutely...we're right in the thick of it. But I still don't see 7 hurricanes coming. Are these guys ever right?
I'm betting the under. Fay has been an interesting storm so far. A couple of models are pushing that storm back into the Gulf again. The reason I mentioned a new thread at the time was because for that day the GFDL model projected a major hurricane heading this way, so that storm looked like it might need its own thread.
It's like anything else they tell you on the news. It's just not good business to let everyone know that "everything will be fine," even when you think it will.
News, absolutely. Science, not so much. I have no problem with the new overhyping things. I mean, I do, but I understand their motivations. But, if scientists do that, I would be surprised. Truth is, it is just very difficult to predict long term weather patterns. The number of potential variables is just too great and gets even more complicated the further out into the forecast period you get.
