VP: Final Three?

Of course this could be totally wrong, but Howard Fineman is pretty reliable and he was very explicit on Countdown tonight:

"I talked to one of the three short listers. I can't say which one... But they... The three short listers are Senator Evan Bayh, Senator Joe Biden and Governor Kaine... And that is the list, according to these people that is the list. Interestingly, Hillary Clinton isn't on it. I think all the vetting has been done. My sense from talking to this one person, the vetting is over with. So Obama can choose anytime he wants cause the lawyers are basically finished with their work."

My original pick, Webb, has been gone a while. Looks like my second pick might be too.

I still like Biden but he and Bayh both strongly supported the war. I'm moving over to Kaine for now.

 

I think that will be the top job of his chief of staff, whom I predict will be Tom Daschle. It would make sense, under an Obama administration, for the VP to focus on matters of governance and the chief of staff to worry about strategy and tactics. Not that there aren't plenty of other reasons to pick either Biden or Bayh -- I just don't see this as one of them.

The NYT is contradicting the Fineman quote today, saying there are vetters traveling the country investigating the short list and that Obama's mind is not made up yet. They also don't seem sold on the final three as expressed by Fineman.

There's a story at Huffington Post that made me realize how little we currently know about Kaine. He's really never had to go public with his opinions about anything to do with foreign policy and there could be some surprises there. But the Obama campaign's been very smart so far and I'm guessing that if he's the pick they will have answers to all questions at the ready.

When I went to sleep last night I would have bet money it was going to be Kaine. Today I think it's even money that it's somebody not even on this list.

 

I've been thinking about this for the last couple days and now Halperin's got it as his headline:

Kaine can't shut up.

Now, either Obama's already leaning hard toward him and decided to roll him out with these little tidbits -- encouraging him to make news to see how he plays on the national stage...

Or he's seriously damaging his chances by proving he can't shut up about the one thing all involved have been asked to shut up about.

If the second thing is true (and it's more likely I think than the first) it reinforces the idea that Kaine's a little green for this.

 

From Ambinder:

Just Asking...
29 Jul 2008 11:40 am
Assuming that Gov. Tim Kaine and Gov. Kathleen Sebilius are both on Obama's short list, I wonder what the tight-lipped Obama world thinks about the leaks coming from Kaine allies as compared to the nada-nothing-bupkis coming from Sebelius's orbit?

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/just_asking_10.php

 

Here's that HP piece. It has good news and bad news for Kaine:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/30/kaine-spurs-curiosity-and_n_115699.html

Sam Stein
stein@huffingtonpost.com | HuffPost Reporting From DC

Kaine Spurs Curiosity (And Groans) Among Progressives
July 30, 2008 12:34 PM


Tim Kaine - once considered the third most likely Virginian to be a Democratic VP contender - has now apparently ascended onto Barack Obama's short list. The Virginia governor, in the midst of his first term, brings natural appeal to the ticket. Both he and Obama are youthful graduates of Harvard Law School who have lived abroad and espouse a definitively 'new-politics' type ethos. And Kaine's geographic pull could prove pivotal in securing the White House.

But the downsides of his selection were also quickly made evident. After news of Kaine's VP prospects became public, the reaction from Obama backers on the web was a mix of curiosity and disappointment.

American Prospect writer Ezra Klein noted that a key qualification for Kaine was "his actual record in Virginia, which folks seem to suggest is pretty good, but which I know relatively little about." Others were less kind. Choosing Kaine would "signal that Obama has no intention to govern as a progressive," wrote Chris Bowers on OpenLeft.com. "As such, it would be difficult to muster up enthusiasm to work for the ticket." Mellisa McEwan of Shakesville described herself as "decidedly unthrilled."

Foreign policy issues, perhaps surprisingly, may be the least problematic. Kaine was not in Congress when the Iraq war was launched and his office says that he opposed the justifications for the invasion. Since then, moreover, the governor has been an outspoken critic of the way the Bush administration has handled the National Guard and has personally visited troops in the field.

But even his staffers fess up to the fact that he needs to flesh out his positions.

"I don't know that he has ever commented on that on the record," said Delacey Skinner, the governor's communications director, when asked for Kaine's take on the surge. "He felt that there was a clear point in time earlier in the war when Rumsfeld shut down what was being recommended to him in terms of troop levels. Obviously when you have more troops on the ground they are going to be in better control of what is going on." As for now: "he does support Senator Obama's plan to get out."

While a short resume on international affairs doesn't help Obama, it is the view progressives hold of Kaine's domestic agenda that could be more of a irritant. Even before news of a possible VP choice broke, environmentalists were expressing chagrin over Kaine's records; specifically his backing of a Dominion coal plant in Wise County and his support for partially lifting the federal moratorium on offshore drilling.

Objections were raised about Kaine's pro-life policies as well. As governor, Kaine supported a ban on partial-birth abortion and once said that his overarching position on the matter was in line with President Bush, a stance to which female voters aren't likely to warm.

"I can't think of a better way to further alienate female voters who are sitting on the fence than to pick someone who isn't at least as women's issues-friendly as Obama himself," opined a columnist on Daily Kos.

For others, however, it wasn't simply that Kaine has moral qualms with abortion - he cites his Catholic faith as the backbone of his opposition to the death penalty and stem cell research as well. It is that, in office, he hasn't proven principled in these stances. Citing the preeminence of state law, Kaine has signed off on several executions. In one memorable moment, a death row inmate asked his guards to "tell the governor he just lost my vote" on the eve of his lethal injection.

"He is non progressive on these issues," said Ben Tribbet, who writes about Virginia politics for the website, Not Larry Sabato. "A lot of people think he is hollow. When he ran as a pro-life candidate but would not change abortion law.... Then he says I'm also against the death penalty but then when people support it he says he will sign death warrants. Then on stem cell research he says I'm pro-life. He will execute people despite his moral objections but he won't allow stem cell research? He just won't take a principled stand..."

There are, it should be noted, deeply personal dynamics to each of these issues that help explain Kaine's positions. During his pre-politics career, he represented death row inmates as an attorney. And as governor he commuted sentences including that of a triple murderer who was deemed too mentally impaired to comprehend he was about to die.

"He has talked about himself as a good government results oriented person," said Skinner when asked to label her boss' ideological leanings. "If you go out there and look at blogs and what people have said about him you will find people who say he is too conservative and too liberal, who say he is a centrist. What I would say is that his first question is: 'is this the right policy?'"

An illustrative example of this philosophical maxim, Kaine proponents say, is his policy on gun ownership. While Kaine ran on as a strong supporter of the Second Amendment, after the brutal school shooting at Virginia Tech he came out in favor of more restrictions on gun show sales and concealed weapons. The incident is often cited as emblematic of effective executive leadership. The governor immediately upended an overseas trip, traveled back to the Blacksburg campus and delivered a widely praised speech at the school's convocation. Later that week, on a popular evangelical show "Hour of Power," Kaine was interrupted by Rev. Robert Schuller:

"Governor," the Reverend said, "I want to tell you that I am a specialist in sensing and seeing Christ coming through personalities and lives and voices, and I see Him in your eyes..."

And yet, courage under crisis and the ability to appeal to divergent communities may not be enough for Kaine to placate progressive concerns. And political observers are skeptical that Kaine would drastically expand Obama's Virginia reach. While the governor currently has an approval rating of 57% according to an April 2008 Survey USA poll, his candidacy did not play particularly well in Appalachia.

As such, several observers wondered aloud to the Huffington Post whether the floating of Kaine's name was done as a smokescreen: an attempt to test the waters for a running mate that might not, in reality, be so high on the list. But despite the skepticism and the progressive concerns, there seems to be an emerging consensus that Kaine is well regarded within the Obama circle. And, in the end, a shared ethos, a fond relationship, and the potential for traction in Virginia may prove too much for the presumptive Democratic candidate to ignore.

"Obama has realized that a modern Vice President practically lives with the Chief Executive, especially in times of crisis," wrote Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia who has followed Kaine's career since 1994. And Obama "wants someone he can trust completely."