I know it's only two days since the last poll, but there's been major buzz today. There's a round-up here that makes a pretty good case that there are four frontrunners: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/short-list-of-short-lists.html So let's see where everyone comes down on these four. Also, since he was mentioned in the last thread, Bradley's out as of today. He was asked by Andrea Mitchell if he might be a candidate for VP and he just said, "No."
I'm torn, by the way, between Sebelius and Kaine for now. But I prefer either of them to Bayh by a wide margin and to Biden by a thin one. But, if it is Kaine, isn't he going to need a haircut? His hair is seriously messed up. Sorry I keep injecting superficial elements into these threads (Reed's abnormally short, Clark's an alien), but style and appearance counts fair or not.
I was about to post liking Kaine because name sounds like the name from David Carradine's character in the old Kung-Fu series, so superficial comments just go hand in hand with the VP even in the light of Cheney.
Think bumper stickers: Obama-Kaine is an easier fit... plus all the slogans you can dream up that include OK. Obama-Sebelius is tougher and doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. All that said, I'd prefer Sebelius. Why take the second best politician in VA as VP?
Biden is the best choice from that list -- he has major name recognition which the other candidates are really lacking and can respond well to any attack question thrown at him. Sebelius is a quality running mate, but she just isn't well known around the country at all.
I seriously doubt name recognition is going to be a problem for anyone running for VP. As soon as the pick is announced it's going to dominate the news cycle for a week. And then it's going to happen again during the convention. This all comes down to what Obama wants in a partner and in a running mate. After his interview on MTP I'm slightly more convinced he'll go with someone from outside the beltway. And I've been convinced for a while he's not trying to shore up weaknesses (a la Bush/Cheney) but underline his strengths (a la Clinton/Gore). To me that points to Kaine or Sebelius of the choices still standing. It could also point to Easley, Bredesen, Schweitzer or Napolitano. All that said, I'd be happy enough with Biden mostly just because I've always liked him and because I think Americans find him generally likable -- along, of course, with being imminently qualified to be president. But I imagine he has a better shot at Secretary of State and I think he might even prefer that position.
I don't think the vast majority of people know anything about any of these guys. Clinton & Edwards are the only ones with legitimate name recognition. 30% of Americans can't even name our *current* Vice President. Historically, I don't think it's mattered either - no one had heard of Gore or Quayle before they were picked.
Just a hunch, but I think Kaine is going to end up being the pick. He's got a lot of plusses, with no real major negatives and that's the biggest thing you're looking for in a VP. I think Biden will be SecState - him as VP causes a 'Washington insider' problem. It's hard for Biden to be arguing the mantle of change - same with Bayh. Sebelius is interesting and I do think she's in the running. If McCain picks a woman, I think Obama has to go with Sebelius. If Obama picks first and goes with Kaine, he opens a major door for McCain to pick a woman and pick up a few percentage points real quick. The whole announcement timing will be an interesting chess match.
For what it's worth, I emailed a couple of Washington correspondent contacts of mine today to ask what they thought and/or had heard, and that was their consensus as well. Kaine seems to be the choice with the least potential negatives. Unless new data comes in showing real weakness in certain demographics, the Washington feeling is that he's the safest -- and thus most likely -- play.
I still prefer Sebelius, but picked Kaine because that's what I think Obama's going to do. Could be wrong, but lately, I'm just not feeling Sebelius. Maybe it's because ObamaKaine just sounds cool. I showed pictures of the WSJ shortlist to my ten year old daughter and she thought Kaine and Reed looked the most like vice presidents. I agree. And I like Kaine's funny haircut, which is a lot less funny than Biden's. I would be really, really surprised if Bayh or Biden were picked if for no other reason than that they voted for the war.
Kaine has very little experience. Electing Obama/Kaine would be like handing the car keys to a goofy 16-year old and telling them to go compete at Daytona.
For what it's worth, McAuliffe was all over Kaine last week. I'm not sure I'm comfortable with choosing the candidate he likes. But yeah, it's Kaine or Sebelius. Still not sure myself.
Kaine in 'Serious' Talks With Obama By Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray Washington Post Staff Writers Tuesday, July 29, 2008; A01 Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had "very serious" conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine. Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) are also being seriously vetted by the campaign staff, according to sources with knowledge of the process. Obama has revealed little about which way he is leaning. And despite rising anticipation that a decision is imminent, campaign officials said an announcement is likely in mid-August, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Obama's top aides, David Plouffe and David Axelrod, huddled yesterday in the Washington office of Eric Holder, who along with Caroline Kennedy is vetting potential running mates. Although rumors have circulated about former military leaders and other nontraditional contenders, including Republicans, Obama's pool of prospects is heavy on longtime senators with foreign policy experience. Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius are the only state leaders believed to be under serious consideration, sources close to Obama said. Democrats who have discussed possible choices with campaign officials and have knowledge of the vetting process said others being considered include Sens. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and former senator Sam Nunn (Ga.). Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Democratic Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.) are mentioned as long shots. Aides to Kaine declined to comment about the possibility that Obama might pick him, referring all questions to the senator's campaign. "The governor has been pretty clear from the beginning, when Senator Obama asked him to be a national co-chair, that any conversation he has with the campaign, on any topic, are conversations that he is keeping private," said Delacey Skinner, Kaine's spokeswoman. But several people who have spoken to Kaine said he has talked about the seriousness of the possibility. Each spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the campaign's desire to keep the process secret. One said Kaine has stressed that there are other top candidates but described his discussions with the campaign as "very serious." Two other associates said Kaine's staff is providing the background information necessary to allow the campaign to search for potential political land mines. One source said Kaine chief counsel Larry Roberts is coordinating with Obama's team. Roberts could not be reached for comment. Kaine will be in Washington today for his monthly interview on WTOP Radio. Kaine and Obama became friends after they campaigned together during Kaine's 2005 gubernatorial race. Kaine, who like Obama has Kansas roots, has returned the favor, stumping nationwide for the senator from Illinois during the primaries. In recent weeks, Kaine and his staff have been in frequent contact with Obama and his campaign about strategy and operations in Virginia and elsewhere. The governor has said he plans to attend the Democratic convention in Denver with his wife and children. Picking Kaine would seem to satisfy many considerations Obama has recently laid out. During an interview with Tom Brokaw on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, the presumptive Democratic nominee said he was looking for someone who shares his desire to change Washington politics. Kaine, a former Richmond mayor, would bring outside-the-Beltway credentials to the campaign. The relationship the two share would seem to fit with Obama's desire, as he said, for someone "with independence -- who's willing to tell me where he thinks, or she thinks, I'm wrong." And the governor probably would bolster Obama in Virginia, where the campaign is making an all-out push. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/28/AR2008072802041_pf.html All things considered, I still think Sebelius would be the best choice for Obama. He would definitely pick up a few votes from women with the pick.
Ok, at this point, I really think this is Obama's election to lose, mainly because McCain seriously hasn't done anything (yet) to really stand out. That said, I think he'd be an idiot to put a woman in the VP spot. Change is always slow and incremental, and while the extreme leftists would love it as showing progress, I think you'd lose a ton of votes from moderates. So in summary, I'd love to see him choose a woman.
Biden has the most name recognition. Thus, my vote. Evan Bayh would make the best VP of the bunch, I suspect. Tough seat to give up though.
