This jumped out at me... That's a huge margin for a state that has traditionally given Repubs a glimmer of hope. Now, they'll have to look elsewhere to spend money on a losing cause. Also, Obama has slight leads in Colorado and Virginia.
Obama's #'s will be up this week and next from the momentum coming off his trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe. He's getting all the media coverage right now. I expect McCain's impending VP announcement to shift the momentum the opposite way when it happens. Meanwhile, sit back and relax. Debate season is going to be when the real fun starts.
I've been seeing 6-8% for Obama across the country -- which I generally think is accurate right now, obviously rimrocker is pointing out one battleground state, but that a big lead nonetheless.
I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt McCain's announcing his VP pick before Obama does. He'd be well advised to weather the current storm (he's hanging in alright) and wait til he really needs the bump. He'd also be well advised to wait and see who Obama picks first. The order of the conventions give him that natural advantage so he might as well use it. Back to the polls: NBC/WSJ just released a new national poll showing Obama up 47-41 over McCain. If Nader and Barr are included, Obama's lead balloons to 13. The wildest numbers in there are about enthusiasm though. 44% of Obama voters are excited to vote for him. 14% of McCain voters say the same of their candidate. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25816799/ But what every poll is telling us is that this race is about Obama. People are going to vote for or against him. McCain is almost irrelevant except as a foil. I think the debates are going to be a very big deal. Neither of them are particularly good debaters, but it's all about whether Obama quells fears and doubts related to experience. If he screws up or makes a major gaffe, this race gets very close and McCain could maybe even pull it out. If Obama holds his own, if he just looks acceptable in the role of president, it's Reagan v. Carter all over again and Obama sweeps in with a nice mandate.
I actually think it's more like 2-6% across the country. The daily tracking polls have it much closer than the other polls, generally putting it at 0-6%. I disagree that rimrocker was citing a swing state poll though. NJ used to be a swing state. rimrocker's point was that it isn't one anymore. The really wild numbers are coming from the actual swing states. In polls just released today and yesterday, they're within the margin of error in MI, FL, VA and NH. That, by itself, is insane. Then add in the fact that Obama's up 8 in OH in one poll and down 10 in OH in another. Craziest election ever.
Add NC and CO to the states within the margin of error above. Most recent polls from IN, MO, MT, NV, SD and ND are also within the margin. That means we have virtual ties in states totaling a whopping 141 electoral votes. I still think this thing is going to swing hard in Obama's direction when people get to see the two of them on stage together -- not because McCain will suck especially bad but because Obama will seem acceptable, which is the only bar he has to meet. But right now, looking at swing states, this thing is very exciting.
I'll say again that saying this doesn't make it so. NJ shows no signs whatsoever of even entertaining McCain over Obama. O's been up in double digits all year. The race is already close. But not in NJ. Not by a long shot. A quick look at polls and the map show that there are at least 23 states that are closer than NJ is, including Texas. If you have a reason to think NJ will be close, other than it just being a feeling you have, I'd love to hear it. NJ is not where the action is this year. And it won't be.
The NBC/WSJ poll also shows another significant number.... "for the 25th consecutive survey, more view the Republican Party negatively (48 percent) than positively (31 percent). By comparison, the Democratic Party has a 43-37 percent positive-negative rating." That's going to be big in the Congressional races and down the ballot, if that trend continues. Seems like it wasn't that many years ago that the numbers regarding how people looked at both parties heavily favored the GOP, and that the +/- numbers looked bleak for Democrats. Also, the number of Americans who identified themselves as Democrats had reached a new low. No longer! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25816799/ The worm has turned! Impeach Bush/Cheney.
Agree with you. The only thing to stop this from happening will be McCain's campaign completely running off the tracks. From what we've seen so far, this is possible.
Another interesting poll.... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/poll2008_swing_states;_ylt=Aj0Q2EEaHhFyPeb84WK5FACs0NUE McCain leads Colorado by 2, Obama leads Minnesota by 2, Obama leads Michigan by 4 and still has a double digit lead in Wisconsin.
I guess you can count texxx in as would not if mooslim anyway hispanics voting for obama Poll: Obama holds commanding lead with Hispanics By RICHARD S. DUNHAM Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle WASHINGTON — Hispanic support for Republicans has collapsed in the past four years, driven by immigration, the sagging economy and the Iraq war, a new poll has found. The poll of 2,015 Latino voters conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Democrat Barack Obama, who lost the Hispanic vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 2-to-1 in the Democratic primary, holds a commanding 66 percent to 23 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain. The Democratic tide in the Latino community is so strong that Obama leads among every nationality group, including the historically Republican Cuban-American population, where Obama now leads, 53 percent to 29 percent. The Illinois Democrat is running far ahead among Mexican-Americans, who cast about 40 percent of their ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Among voters of Mexican ancestry, Obama leads McCain, 70 percent to 21 percent. Obama is running so far ahead that he has the support of 25 percent of Hispanics who identify themselves as Republicans and holds an edge of about 5-to-1 among Latinos who consider themselves political independents. President Bush's approval rating among Latinos has plummeted to 27 percent. More than three-fourths of Hispanic voters have a favorable impression of Obama, while McCain -- who has regularly won majority support among Mexican-Americans in his home state of Arizona -- is viewed favorably by just 44 percent of Latinos nationally. Unless McCain can reverse the GOP slide, the Hispanic vote could prove pivotal to Obama in traditionally Republican states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, and could help him close what has been a significant gap in Florida. It also could help the Democrat in three states that went Republican in 2004 but have small but rapidly increasing Hispanic populations: Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina. While Latino participation in the electoral process has lagged far behind that of Caucasians and African Americans, the Pew report found that Hispanic voting in the 2008 primaries has been sharply up and that 17 percent of Latino primary voters indicated that they were going to the polls for the first time. Seventy-eight percent of Hispanics say they are closely following the election this year. Hispanics make up 15 percent of the U.S. population and 9 percent of its registered voters. The Pew report estimates that by 2050, Hispanics will comprise 29 percent of the nation's population. These latest poll numbers portend a tough year for Republicans unless McCain and other GOP candidates can find a way to change the mood of Hispanic voters. The Pew survey finds the largest Democratic lead in party identification in its decade of polling -- a 39 percentage point edge. Just 16 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they are Republicans, and another 10 percent are independents who lean to the GOP. That Democratic edge has nearly doubled in the past two years, from a 49 percent to 28 percent edge in 2006 to today's 65 percent to 26 percent advantage. Obama leads McCain among all issues in the Hispanic community. On immigration, the Democrat has a huge advantage -- even though his rival from Arizona has a liberal record on immigration -- 59 percent to 19 percent. Half of Latinos say Obama would be better for immigrants, while just 12 percent say McCain would help immigrants more. On the war in Iraq, Latinos trust Obama more to handle it, 58 percent to 27 percent -- dashing Republicans' hopes to appeal to the "patriotism factor" in Hispanic Americans. And on jobs, Hispanics prefer Obama, 65 percent to 19 percent. While the hard-line rhetoric of some Republican conservatives has alienated many Latinos, the issue of immigration appears to have receded a bit as a voting issue. While 75 percent of Hispanics say immigration is "extremely" or "very" important to them, it lagsbehind education, Latino's top concern at 93 percent, and pocketbook issues such as the rising cost of living (92 percent), jobs (91 percent) and health care (90 percent). Other findings: -- Two-thirds of Hispanic voters are native-born. One-third are naturalized citizens. Native-born Hispanics are slightly more likely to back McCain (26 percent, vs. 19 percent for immigrants). -- Twenty-five percent of registered Latino voters are under the age of 30. Just 18 percent are 60 or older. -- Young Latinos are the most likely to identify with the Democratic Party and to support Obama. The Illinois senator holds a 73 percent to 16 percent lead among under-30 voters and a 59 percent to 25 percent lead among over-60 voters (McCain's best group). -- Obama leads among highly educated and less-educated Hispanics: 5-to-1 among high school dropouts and 5-to-2 among college grads. -- McCain cannot gain traction even among the wealthiest Hispanics, who lean to Obama by about 2-to-1. Latinos earning under $30,000 are even more strongly for the Democrat, 68 percent to 18 percent. -- The best news for Republicans is the fact that one-third of Hispanics report being Protestant. One-third of evangelical and mainline Protestant Hispanics are Republican, about twice as many as Hispanic Catholics. -- The most strongly Democratic group based on location of origin remains Puerto Ricans, who favor Obama, 73 percent to 14 percent. -- Obama leads among Hispanics who are satisfied with the country's direction (52 percent to 41 percent) and among those who think it's headed in the wrong direction (72 percent to 16 percent). -- Obama's race does not appear to be an issue with Latinos, despite stories in the national media describing alleged racism in the Hispanic community. There is no difference in voting preferences among Latinos who say Obama's race is a factor in deciding their vote as those who say it isn't.
Skip to comments. John McCain picks up steam in Colorado and Minnesota The Los Angeles Times ^ | July 24, 2008 | Don Frederick Posted on Thursday, July 24, 2008 2:31:47 PM by americanophile If John McCain and his loyalists were hoping for something to brighten their day amid the blizzard of coverage of Barack Obama's foreign tour, they've gotten it with new poll results from four key states -- Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. The survey by the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, conducted between July 14 and Tuesday, contains especially good news for the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in Colorado and Minnesota. In Colorado, the one state among the four that President Bush carried in 2004, the poll showed McCain ahead by 2 percentage points. That lead is within the poll's margin of error, but it represents a positive trend for the Arizona senator; in a Quinnipiac survey a month ago, Obama led in the state by 5 percentage points. The poll found McCain making even greater strides in Minnesota, host of the convention where McCain will formally become his party's nominee in early September. Obama's advantage over McCain there now is negligible -- 2 percentage points -- compared with a 17-point lead the same survey gave the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee in June. Here are the new results: Colorado (nine electoral votes): McCain 46%, Obama 44% (in June, Obama 49%, McCain 44%). Michigan (17 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 42% (in June, Obama 48%, McCain 42%). Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Obama 46%, McCain 44% (in June, Obama 54%, McCain 37%). Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Obama, 50%, McCain 39% (in June, Obama 52%, McCain 39%). The Quinnipiac release on its poll notes that McCain "has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters." Summarizing the change over the last month, Peter Brown, the poll's assistant director, says that Obama's "post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit." (Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
