It's been a couple weeks. Time for a new poll. A few interesting things have happened in the interim. Clark has, according to most CW, taken himself out of the running, at least for now, with last week's flap. John Edwards recently announced he would debate Karl Rove in late September. That doesn't sound like the action of someone who's being seriously considered for VP. Clinton gave a remarkable performance at the Unity event, boosting her chances in all circles. I think it's obvious she still remains an extremely unlikely pick for various reasons, not the least of which is Bill's apparent unwillingness to submit to vetting. But I think that while she had about a 0% chance of being picked before Unity, NH, anyone would have to say she needs to be considered now. I'd put her chances around 5-10% now, which is a real turnaround. Chet Edwards has been getting some buzz lately. Pelosi's pushed him hard and he's been coy when asked if he'd been approached. Nobody's been talking about his awkward appearance on Hardball some months back though. As a reminder, he was asked to name an Obama accomplishment in the Senate and he came up blank and looked ill prepared as a surrogate. Obama made some very friendly comments last week toward Sebelius, which raised eyebrows and seemed to boost her chances. Webb increased his chances too with the passage of the G.I. Bill. His stock probably rose higher than anyone's in the last couple weeks with the possible exception of Hillary. But then, he was probably under serious consideration before the events of the last weeks while she probably wasn't. Nunn's still on the list, but a lot of progressives and core Dems are miffed at Obama these days. A Nunn pick would be a disaster with the base. Bayh's on the list because Bayh's on every short list going back to 2000. I would be very surprised if it was him, but it might be that the balance the Obama team seeks is a safe, reliable, boring choice. With Nunn's problems, Bayh probably fits the bill best as a safe, boring pick. Nothing of interest has happened with Biden lately, but he seems to be entrenched in the short list. And given Biden's penchant for sticking both feet in his mouth, no news is probably good news. Who's your pick and why?
p.s. I'm back on the Webb train for this poll at least. I love Sebelius still too. They're pretty much tied for my support right now and I'd be thrilled with either of them.
I had picked Clark in the last poll but that was before he started acting like a raving idiot. I'm not sure who I'd prefer at this point.
I think it's Webb or Bayh. Both guys have a few weeks to either shine or stub their toe. I don't think Edwards, Hillary or Clark ever had much chance. Regarding Sebelius, I just can't see Obama choosing a woman besides Hillary.
Whoever Teamsters wants him to pick. Obama still isn't connecting with the largest Democratic voting bloc, big labor. He needs to do something to get them in line.
I don't agree with this premise, but I would think labor would be very happy with J. Edwards, Webb or Clinton. Most likely Biden too. And I can't imagine them having a problem with Sebelius either. But Webb, Edwards and Clinton are as good on labor issues as anyone.
Apparently, there are some rumblings within the GOP about worried that Obama might pick Gephardt. I'm not sure why the big fear - I'm not a huge Gephardt fan - but it would solidify labor. He's staunchly partisan, but more in the mold of being able to work with people than the combative, rhetoric type partisans we've had leading Congress more recently. The article I read said that he put a friendly face on liberalism.
Unless it happened to more than one Texas Democrat, I'm pretty sure that was Kirk Watson who got hardballed, not Chet Edwards. As I've said before, I'm for Sebelius but if I had to predict, I still think it will end up being someone not on any lists, like Bill Bradley.
I'd be okay with Gephardt, I guess. Not excited in any way, but okay. And I guess he'd help in MO a little, which might be enough to flip their 11 electoral votes. He just seems very old school to me. Almost Harkin-esque but with even less fire. And he was lame as hell on Iraq. Also, just judging by his appearance, I think there's at least an even chance that he might be an alien. Great, great, great on labor though. I'd love to read that article if you could provide the link.
My bad. That explains why no one's talking about it. I don't know how I got them mixed up. They're really not very similar at all.
Hmm, it appears "article" might be overstating it. I thought I had only read the beginning of the "article" but it appears I read the entire thing. Blurb might be a better description! http://www.usnews.com/articles/news...-gephardt-as-possible-obama-running-mate.html GOP Envisions Gephardt as Possible Obama Running Mate The former House majority leader appeals to key constituencies, but his lobbying work may rule him out Posted July 1, 2008 Republican strategists trying to game Sen. Barack Obama's choice for a running mate are focusing more and more on the possibility that he might pick former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, a friend of labor and blue-collar workers. "Gephardt is the one we're most afraid of," said a key GOP strategist and Bush ally. Gephardt has run for the presidency and scored well among the types of voters Obama is trying to reach out to—lower and middle-class workers, laborers, and minorities. Another strategist said that Gephardt presents a friendly face of liberalism that would be hard to attack. He also has a deep well of support among House Democrats, who they believe would rally around an Obama-Gephardt ticket, especially the allies of Sen. Hillary Clinton. Former Gephardt aides say that while they would like to see their former boss on the ticket, it is unlikely because of his recent lobbying work. In a new poll from the marketing firm Affinnova, Gephardt ranks high on the favorability rating, just second among those polled behind Colin Powell as the choice for Obama's running mate.
I like Jim Webb. It's becoming more and more clear to me that McCain has little to run on but Iraq and Webb is the one guy who can tear apart McCain's arguments with credibility. He was an anti-war guy from the start, he's a former Republican (served under Reagan, my goodness) which helps with Obama's uniter label, he's a highly decorated war veteran, he's served as Secretary of the Navy which gives him strategic command experience (something McCain certainly doesn't have), and he like McCain has a son in the service so this is all very personal for him. He's kind of the brawn to Obama's dazzle though I think he's just as intelligent as Obama, just not quite as charasmatic. He's a tough SOB who understands the class struggle going on in this country right now, something that doesn't get nearly enough play these days.
Good post, CometsWin. Just to balance with a few negatives... Webb's still got a problem with his "Women Can't Fight" essay, though he's changed his position and regrets having fought hard to keep women out of combat roles. He can also be a real loose cannon. And that's not the greatest quality in a VP candidate. Obama's campaign has been great at controlling its own message. That becomes considerably more difficult with Webb on the ticket. And the sexy bits of his novels are awkward in a potential president or VP. I'm pretty sure he'd be the first potential leader of the free world to have written explicit sex scenes. That's a little weird. Can you imagine the president saying or writing words like "vagina?" I kind of can't. I still love him for it though for all the reasons you mentioned in your post. He's far from the safest pick, but he is among the most exciting.
no clue.. but Kerry choose edwards on July 6th, bush picked cheney on July 24th, and GOre picked Lieberman in early august So.. my guess is the selection will be made pretty soon.
The Olympics and convention schedules have kinda of pinned Obama down and he's at a definite disadvantage. The Olympics are scheduled from August 8-24. The Dem convention is August 25-28. The GOP convention is September 1-4. He has a window open near the end of July. My guess is he will make the announcement early in the week of July 28-August 1 because that will give the Dems a one to two week buzz of attention. If he waits until closer to Olympic time, the distractions of Bush attending the opening ceremonies, various protests here and around the world against China and the games themselves will all draw the attention of the American public. His next window would be during the Dem convention, but he could be trumped by McCain 2-3 days later with his choice. That's my 2 cents. Anyone else with a better idea? I just can't see how Obama won't announce his choice 10-12 days before the Olympics begin.
That is a big problem imo. Its stupid, but in the age of email and soundbite politics its dangerous to pick somebody that can be easily hit like that.
First of all, I'm bent over laughing at how Batman is regarding himself as the homeroom teacher in this thread, when he himself is equally in the dark as the rest of the thread's participants as to the VP choice. Just hilarious arrogance on display, friends. Second, the quote above is perhaps the biggest gloss-over in the history of the BBS. Batman, by 'sexy' do you mean pedophilic? Webb literally talks about a father fellating his son. That's not 'sexy' in my book, like it apparently is in your book. Um yeah, that could be 'potentially awkward'. Yes. And then some. Webb has too many flaws apart from his history of writing about child p*rnography, however. He's got very little legislative experience himself and is a total radical on economic matters. Thanks for playing though.
