I've been out of GARM for a while but have been reading pre and post draft threads for the last 2-3 days. Everyone is discussing Green, Dorsey and the moves to come. I thought I'd resolv everything for everyone by entering the Mind of Morey and predicting the future. i actually think it's pretty clear. Coming into the draft, our needs were as follows, in order of importance: (i) athletic wing, (ii) PG rotation player, and (iii) backup big. The Draft: Unable to get Rush or Lee, we couldn't get near term help on athletic wing. So, Morey HAS to draft for upside potential. Enter Green, who if he develops, will come onto the scene when Tmac starts to fade out. No point in drafting a CDR, who is more ready at the wing. (see FA move below) Backup big is less a concern b/c we have scola to slide to the 5 and Deke for this year. But Morey grabs Dorsey, who gives us flexibility to move Hayes and coudl develop. I give an A+ for the draft, particularly considering the Griz's 2nd round pick next year. FA/Trade: The reason you don't draft a CDR or other 2nd tier wing player that is more "NBA ready" is that you can target Petrius, Barnes, J Jones, Posey, for part of the MLE (maybe Petrius commands all of the MLE), and they are going to dramatically out produce CDR or other 2nd tier wing player from the draft. While your Petrius/Barnes/Jones mans the spot as you try to contend, you let Green develop in D league to see if he shows some of that potential. For this reason, I don't get the folks here that are bashing or unhappy with the draft. I think the philosophy is sound and the talent evaluation (going with Green as opposed to a difft athletic wing like batum) is sound also. Productive PG is more of a challenge because PG play is at a premium in the league. I don't like going into the season counting on Brooks or BJax to play, so it shoudl be fairly easy to bring in another PG via trade or LLE to compete against them for the role. However, if get the athletic wing in a Petrius, Barnes, JJones etc, all of a sudden, the roster looks stronger and i don't mind Brooks or BJax as the backup 1 as much. We will be able to bring down Tmac's, Battier's and Yao's minutes and be fresher/healthier in April. I'd be pleased if our opening day roster looked like this; PG: Alston, Brooks, BJax SG: Tmac, Head SF:Battier, Barnes PF: Scola, Landry, Hayes C: Yao, Deke/Dorsey We could carry Dorsey/Novak/Francis as 13-15. We would carry 3 valuable trade chips to make a move before the deadline for that PG help: BJax expiring, Francis expiring, and the Grizzlies' 2009 2nd round pick. The key is getting a Petrius, Barnes type a player that can play 25 mins per game as a solid rotation player throughout the year. (Or, we could move Bjax, Battier, Landry, Brooks for a big third piece like artest, which I'd endorse big time. But i think that's less likely.) Any other good athletic wing players that can be had for MLE (full or part)?
I wouldn't be happy with our opening day roster if Luther Head is still the main back-up for McGrady.
Nice well reasoned post.....I think the team may also be after CJ Miles, Gerald Green, or Kelena Azubuike as an athletic wing too, probably would get similar production for less money. The key will be PG, many people forget that Brooks played against team USA last year and was singled out by Jason Kidd and Bryant as a player to watch out for.....I think in year 2, he will be MUCH more comfortable than in year one and may split time with Rafer.....at least that is what I am hoping for. Agreed on Green and Dorsey, no expectations for either, maybe Dorsey moves Chuck Hayes out, but that was going to happen some day anyway to a limited player like Chuck. Greene is a gamble for the future, he may turn out to be a wasted draft choice, but when you are taken 28th in the draft, more often than not, you are out of the league in 5 years. So, here is to hoping he bucks that trend, and at 19, let's hope the Rockets do better with him than they have with their last few teenagers. Anyway, good takes, and it is nice to see some real thought put into a post, with some realistic expectations. Well done. DD
Nice take. I agree that's where we're headed and that I'm fine with that. I do hope that whoever we can hopefully bring in via FA (or minor trade, if that happens) can take minutes at SG because I also don't like the idea of Head (and Francis, if still less than 100%) being the only other SG(s) on the roster.
the thing about the PG spot is we are pretty solid there right now. rafer, bjax, brooks give you some pretty solid play combined. and although we'd love to consider jax's expiring deal a trade chip this summer, morey has said before that he'd like to take the endings to the deadline. my problem with greene is that it's going to be hard for him to beat out novak with adelman's system going into full swing this year. whereas dorsey can end up as a rotation player this year just by beating out the likes of hayes and deke for the remaining few minutes a game available in the post.
i forgot to add... i would give up luther and hayes in a sign and trade for this guy: 6'6, 38% on 3s, 26 years old, plays like scola as a wing...
Delfino plays nothing like Scola as a wing. But I do like your idea of getting him. He is a better option than Luther and maybe Adelman can get more out of him than other coaches have.
I hate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The word developement ! It is a EVIL WORD. If a player is good he will show it right out the gate! There was no developement league other than playing overseas for awhile in the mid years of the league. You either had or you did'nt. Destined for stardem or bench role player. Carl Landry, Brooks and Scola showed that if given the oppurtunity they all could succeed in this league in their first year. All greats and good NBA players show it immediately. They of course don't display their max potential but they do show glimpses of what they will be. This does not mean they need to go through a developement league or labeled as a long term project. It means that they will continue to mature while playin a successful role on a nba team. All the greats and successful contributing players showed it right out. Examples are listed above in our 2007 rookies. Examples of busters that showed their busterism immediately: The Late not great Eddie Griffin, Kwame chump Brown, and many many more. If these kids Green and Dorsey are worth anything, they will show it immediately.
Comments: 1 Your asessment of our needs is dead on. 2 Green wasn't drafted to emerge after Tracy starts to "fade out". He was drafted because he might develop into a rotation player. I would consider him more of a Steve Novak replacement since Novak will be outta here if he doesn't show more snap this season. Neither guy plays any defense; neither can dribble well. All they can do is shoot jumpers. 3 CDR isn't more ready for the NBA than anybody, which is why he fell into the 2nd round. He wasn't athletic enough to get separation in college and he isn't a great shooter. Against bigger, more athletic players in the NBA, CDR will be lucky to last 2 years. I agree the Rockets did well in the draft considering the starting point was #25. 4 It isn't "fairly easy" to use the LLE to get a decent backup PG. Trade or using part of the MLE is the only way to bring in a PG worth anything. Problem is, Landry will take a chunk of the MLE so that leaves a trade. 5 If all we do to the roster is add either James Jones, Pietrus or Matt Barnes, I will very disappointed. Neither Pietrus nor Barnes are very good and Jones has the knee issue. This team must do more than stand pat. I've screamed the last 4 summers about getting better at PG. If we roll out Rafer again with a sorry backup, I'll be disgusted. But I have confidence in Morey.
yeh, nice post. agree with it. read a lot of clutchfans even though i don't post a lot. garm's full of pointless monkey threads eh? would love to see a proper wing upgrade before the season starts proper, but i suppose that will wait till the deadline?
Morey is giving us great flexibility going into the season. There are a lot of acquisition possibilities. Morey could be gearing up to acquire a big time star to go with 111. And I'm convinced he's trying to get it done without involving Battier. I think there are already deals we could have made to trade Battier and Morey has held off. In my opinion, our trade assets are: our 2009 first round draft pick Memphis' 2009 second round draft pick Donte Greene Chuck Hayes expiring contracts of BJax, Luther, Woods, Harris, and possibly Francis. This totals up to over $11 million of salary for Donte, Chuck, and the other expirings sans Francis. If you throw in Francis, it adds up to over $14 mill. I can still see the possibility of getting Mike Miller from Minnesota if it is obvious that they are a lottery team at the deadline. I can still see the possibility of acquiring Ron Artest. I can still see the possibility of acquiring Corey Maggette. Wally S could be out there. Carlos Delfino is obviously out there. I can see the possibilities of a deal with Indy for a swingman. I can see the possibility of acquiring many, many players. And the good thing is, there is no urgency to do it. I think Greene is going to be a big key. They're gonna look at him in summer league, they're gonna look at him in training camp, then they're gonna send him to the D-league with instructions to light it up. If.......................we actually hit a grandslam, then Greene will perform superior in d-league and we won't be able to deny a call up and plug in to the rotation to see how he does. If.......Greene does simply "well" in d-league, he could be a huge trading chip for a superstar.
What if your roster is full of guys who can contribute more to the rotation now? You'd rather Green be inactive on the end of the bench as a practice player? Send Green to he D League and let him get some minutes so his game may continue to improve. He's 19. If the D League was around when Tracy was drafted, his progression into becoming TMac would have been accelerated. Of the 44 former D-League players currently in the NBA, six will likely be members of their team’s starting five, including Rafer Alston , Kelenna Azubuike (GSW), Chuck Hayes, Anthony Johnson (Atlanta), Martell Webster (Blazers) and Dorell Wright (Heat).
And none of them are very good players, or even "good" players. You know that list is screwed if Rafer Alston is arguably the best player on it. I think adagio's point is that if you're gonna be a player who can produce and legitimately be part of a championship-contending team's rotation, more likely than not, you better know how to play right away rather than being "a project". For example, Tony Parker. Tony Parker was viewed by many as a project after the Spurs brought him in from France, but Pops threw him in, and he responded by producing. Everybody thought Rajon Rondo was "a project", but he came in and produced too. Even Tmac produced when he was called upon as a rookie. Then again, you have your Jermaine O'Neals and Kevin Garnetts who simply did not get the playing time early on. But there's a reason why these guys were taken high up in the draft, versus late-20s picks like Brooks and Greene.
the 2 guys that came in are basically hayes with a dunk, and novak with a dunk. Tough to say this, but bye bye hayes and novak. So morey did what he say he would do, upgrade on size and athleticism.
Unless a trade to get Artest materilizes I would sign Posey for most or the full MLE. Use the LLE to resign Landry and if he wants more let him walk. If Landry walks then sign Horry. Beat teams with Defense and 3 point shooting, making them pay for doubling Yao and TMac. Alston/Jackson/Brooks TMac/Francis/Head Battier/Posey/Green Scola/Hayes/Horry Yao/Deke/Dorsey I would like to keep Novak around but he will get caught up in a numbers game unless we can get rid of Head somehow. We will lose Landry, but will gain Posey and Horry. That will bring more defense and guys who can spread the floor. I know some of want to kill me for saying let Landry walk but what he brings i believe we have in Dorsey now(hustle, intencity and hops to get rebounds and alot of dunks). Believe me that with our 1st & 2nd and Memphis 2nd we will be able to find a Carl Landry next year. Or we can package those picks to move up and get a scoring PF/C. I feel that team can be one of the top teams in the West especially if Francis return healthy. But just incase Yao, TMac, defense and 3pt shooting isn't enough and we still need that 3rd scorer then we will still have Jackson, Head, Francis and those picks to use in a trade to aquire a 3rd scorer before the trade deadline. Before all of that I would still try to get Artest first.
You sign and trade Landry before you let him walk. But I agree with you in that I'd be willing to take a chance on Artest. (a re-signed Artest, that is)
If Green is anything like McGrady or Rashard Lewis, then he's going to need 2-3 years before he is anywhere near his ceiling. Maybe you're right that we'll see flashes, but it's too much to expect anything out of these rookies immediately.
